Time: 1030 AM Tue August 20, 2019 Forecaster: Alan Smith

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

HOT WITH ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
-Another hot day is expected across the District as high pressure remains in place. Highs will peak in the mid to upper 90s on the plains with mostly sunny skies early becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.
-Dry conditions should persist through most of the day, aside from perhaps some isolated high-based thunderstorms over the foothills and Palmer Divide. However, a cold front will arrive this evening with the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to develop. Moisture will quickly increase behind the cold front with dewpoints rising into the 50s this evening.
-There remain some question marks on whether or not the front will trigger thunderstorms in and near the District due to the late hour, but if thunderstorms manage to develop the potential will exist for a few stronger storms that could persist late into the evening. Storm motions will generally be east to west at 12-17mph with the potential for brief heavy rains under stronger storm cells. Thunderstorm activity, should it develop, would most likely favor northern and eastern portions of the District.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of TR-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. A strong thunderstorm could produce rainfall of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of strong thunderstorm cells results in heavy rainfall of up to 2.25" in 60-90 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: Moisture will increase behind the cold front overnight, setting the stage for a potentially active day on Wednesday along with much cooler temperatures. The big question Wednesday is whether or not a capping inversion over the plains suppresses thunderstorm development. However, if the cap breaks then the potential will exist for strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. Drier air will gradually work its way in from the west on Thursday and Friday, leading to more isolated thunderstorm activity with generally light to moderate rains.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 700 PM TO 1159 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW
Arapahoe 700 PM TO 1159 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW
Broomfield 700 PM TO 1159 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW
Denver 700 PM TO 1159 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW
Douglas 700 PM TO 1159 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW
Jefferson 700 PM TO 1159 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW
Boulder 600 PM TO 1159 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW
Foothills above 6500ft      
Douglas 700 PM TO 1159 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW
Jefferson 700 PM TO 1159 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW
Boulder 400 PM TO 1159 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.