| Message 1’s have been issued for all Counties except Douglas County in which a Message 2 (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) has been issued. The Message 1’s will be valid from 3:00 PM this afternoon until 2:00 AM Thursday while the Message 2 for Douglas County is valid from 3;00 PM this afternoon until 6:00 AM Thursday but may be rescinded early should conditions warrant. Multiple ingredients are rapidly coming together for thunderstorms to develop this afternoon over the next few hours and become strong to severe into the evening. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall, large hail (possibly accumulating hail) and gusty winds. 1-2 rounds of strong/severe thunderstorms are expected over the course of the afternoon/evening/early overnight period. Thunderstorms will be relatively slow moving and may produce extended periods of heavy rain. Prime time for thunderstorms is from 4:00 PM this afternoon to 1:00 AM Thursday. Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms will easily produce excessive runoff roadways and may result in flash flooding within the District. Due to snow melt and recent rains many creeks and streams are already running relatively high and additional rainfall will exacerbate flows as the day progresses. |
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 3.0" of rain in 45-60 minutes.
| County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook |
Precipitation Time | 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability |
Message Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plains | |||
| Adams |
300 PM TO
200 AM THU |
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%) | |
| Arapahoe |
300 PM TO
200 AM THU |
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%) | |
| Boulder |
300 PM TO
200 AM THU |
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%) | |
| Broomfield |
300 PM TO
200 AM THU |
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%) | |
| Denver |
300 PM TO
200 AM THU |
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%) | |
| Douglas |
300 PM TO
200 AM THU |
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%) | |
| Jefferson |
300 PM TO
200 AM THU |
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%) | |
| Foothills above 6500ft | |||
| Boulder |
Current TO
200 AM THU |
0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (25%) | |
| Douglas |
Current TO
200 AM THU |
0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (25%) | |
| Jefferson |
Current TO
200 AM THU |
0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (25%) |
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.