Time: 943 AM Wed July 24, 2019 Forecaster: Alan Smith

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

HOT WITH SCATTERED LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
-High pressure centered over Colorado result in mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures through mid-afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s on the plains.
-Thunderstorms will initially develop over the mountains and higher foothills by mid-afternoon, but conditions will remain capped on the plains initially. However, an upper level disturbance will arrive from the northwest late today, resulting in a better chance of late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Storm motions will be to the E/SE at 10-15mph.
-Low level moisture will decrease some initially this afternoon, but dewpoints and precipitable water values are expected to increase again with the passing disturbance this evening. As a result, strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall. Storm activity could linger past sunset before eventually tapering off by late this evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing rainfall amounts of 0.4-1.1" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of strong thunderstorm cells results in heavy rainfall of up to 3.2" in 90-120 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: A weak cold front will reach the District on Thursday, leading to a further uptick in moisture with 1-2 rounds of afternoon/evening thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall. Drier air will push back into the District from the west on Friday, resulting in only isolated thunderstorm activity favoring the higher terrain with limited heavy rainfall potential. The next upper level disturbance will arrive on Saturday, leading to an uptick in thunderstorm activity and heavy rainfall potential.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 500 PM TO 1100 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (15%) MOD
Arapahoe 500 PM TO 1100 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (15%) MOD
Boulder 500 PM TO 1100 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (15%) MOD
Broomfield 500 PM TO 1100 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (15%) MOD
Denver 500 PM TO 1100 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (15%) MOD
Douglas 500 PM TO 1100 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (15%) MOD
Jefferson 500 PM TO 1100 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (15%) MOD
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 300 PM TO 1100 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (15%) MOD
Douglas 300 PM TO 1100 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (15%) MOD
Jefferson 300 PM TO 1100 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (15%) MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.