Time: 849 AM Tue August 9, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

WARMER TODAY WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT
-High-pressure will start to build over the region today leading to mostly sunny skies early as high temperatures reach the upper 80's to low 90's this afternoon. This high-pressure will also usher in drier mid to upper-level air throughout the day effectively decreasing storms chances this afternoon.
-However, dew points remain elevated this morning in the mid 50's to low 60's which are expected to mix out by midday with dew points expected to drop into the 40's by this afternoon. Similar to yesterday, a weak, yet persistent convergence line is starting to set up to the south and east of the District, which will result in a slight chance for storms to develop along this line bringing very pulse like storms that could produce moderate to brief heavy rain. At this time, these storms are not expected to impact the District, although, a gust front from stronger storms outside of the District has the potential to trigger additional storms on the eastern and southern fringes of the District this afternoon.
-Drier air settles over the District this evening and overnight as high-pressure builds. Overnight lows expected in the low to mid 60's with mild conditions into daybreak Wednesday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Outflow from thunderstorms outside the District pushes additional moisture into the area and provides a triggering mechanism for strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: The 90's stick around into the weekend as high-pressure holds over the District. Mostly sunny and dry tomorrow with a very slight chance for a few rain showers/isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain. Even warmer Thursday with continued dry conditions. A slight chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms Friday with minimal rainfall expected as most storms remain high-based resulting in a better chance for gusty winds rather than rainfall.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE
Arapahoe 100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE
Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
Broomfield 100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
Denver 100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE
Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE
Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE
Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
https://f2p2.udfcd.org/generator/