| - | Elevated surface moisture remains in place behind a disturbance that moved through the region yesterday. Dew points are currently in the low 50's across the District and should hold through the morning. This increased moisture, combined with another weak disturbance will keep a low threat for brief heavy rainfall as some storms have the potential to become severe this afternoon, favoring areas west of the I-25 corridor at this time. Severe storms will favor strong winds with gusts over 60mph along with large hail up to 1.5" in diameter. |
| - | Thunderstorms will first develop over the higher terrain to the west between 11am and 1pm with the best chance for storm development in the District between noon and 8pm this evening. A few rounds of storms will be possible, although the best chance for heavy rainfall will be with the initial round of storm development this afternoon. Storm motions from W to E at 10-20mph which will keep storms moving along and rainfall brief from a single storm. Training of thunderstorm cells may result in longer periods of rainfall. |
| - | After 8pm rain shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to have diminished with a few light rain showers possible through 10pm with a few scattered light rain showers possible between 2am through daybreak tomorrow. Overnight lows will drop into the low 50's along the plains with mid to upper 40's along the foothills. |
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of moderate to strong thunderstorm cells, or a severe thunderstorm may produce rainfall amounts of up to 1.0" in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer, drier air begins to move into the region Wednesday, however a slight threat for afternoon and early evening rain/isolated thunderstorms will remain. The chance for moderate to heavy rainfall will diminish Wednesday with gusty winds and an isolated lightning strike or two being the largest threat. Similar conditions Thursday with high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly for areas north of I-70. Drier and even warmer conditions as the weekend approaches with near or at 90° both Thursday and Friday.
| Location | Prime Time | 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability |
Message Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plains | |||
| Adams |
1200 PM TO
800 PM |
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) | |
| Arapahoe |
1200 PM TO
800 PM |
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) | |
| Boulder |
1200 PM TO
800 PM |
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) | |
| Broomfield |
1200 PM TO
800 PM |
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) | |
| Denver |
1200 PM TO
800 PM |
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) | |
| Douglas |
1200 PM TO
800 PM |
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) | |
| Jefferson |
1200 PM TO
800 PM |
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) | |
| Foothills above 6500ft | |||
| Boulder |
1200 PM TO
800 PM |
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) | |
| Douglas |
1200 PM TO
800 PM |
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) | |
| Jefferson |
1200 PM TO
800 PM |
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) |
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.