Time: 922 AM Fri July 12, 2019 Forecaster: Nick Barlow

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

CONTINUED WARM WITH AFTERNOON & EVENING SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
-The mid-summer heat wave continues along the Front Range Friday, underneath a strong ridge of high pressure anchored to our SW. Afternoon temperatures will climb back into the mid to upper 90s, with plenty of sunshine expected this morning.
-A slight increase in mid and upper-level moisture will lead to an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity by early afternoon. Most of today’s storms will be pulse-type and high-based, and the threat for heavy rainfall is low.
-Today's storms will track to the E at around 10-15mph, but some storms could move more slowly if anchored to an outflow boundary. The best chance for a thunderstorm over the District will occur between about 3:00pm-8:00pm.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate showers and thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts between Trace-0.15" in 10-30 minutes. Stronger thunderstorms could produce rainfall between 0.15-0.35" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A cluster of storms anchored to a boundary or backbuilding of storm cells over the same area results in rainfall up to 0.50" in 10-30 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: Little change is expected on Saturday, as upper-level high pressure remains in control of the region. Daytime temperatures will hold in the 90s, while subtropical moisture continues to rotate around the ridge’s periphery into Colorado.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Arapahoe 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (55%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Broomfield 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Denver 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (55%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW
Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (85%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (85%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (55%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW
Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW
Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.