Flash Flood Prediction Program

-	A cold front moved in overnight resulting in more seasonable high temperatures today in the mid 80's to low 90's across the plains with low to upper 70's along the foothills. The cold front also ushered in elevated surface moisture as dew points this morning are in the mid to upper 50's and will slowly mix out this afternoon into the upper 40's to low 50's bringing an increased chance for heavy rainfall this afternoon.
-	Initial storm development will occur over the higher terrain between 11-1pm with rain showers/thunderstorms pushing out onto the plains between 12-2pm. The best chance for storms today will be from 12-6pm with lingering weak showers/isoalted thunderstorms through sunset. Storm motion today will be from the W/SW to E/NE between 5-15mph, with a slight chance for stationary storm development off outflow boundaries which will have the best chance for isolated heavy rainfall. Strong thunderstorms will also produce frequent lightning, strong winds and large hail. There is a low chance for severe weather today, favoring areas east of I-25.
-	Skies will begin to clear around sunset as overnight temperatures drop into the upper 50's to low 60's across the District. Similar high temperatures tomorrow with a slight decrease in storm activity, although an isolated moderate to strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out completely at this time.

STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" of rain. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Supplemental QPF is available at https://qpf.udfcd.org

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large, slower moving or stationary strong thunderstorm may produce up to 2.0" of rain in 45-60 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances will continue every day this week as high temperatures remain in the mid 80's to low 90's through Friday. Best chance for heavy rainfall and widespread rain showers/thunderstorms will be on Tuesday, although isolated heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out each day this week.

Location	Prime Time	30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability	Message Potential
Plains
Adams	1200 PM TO 800 PM	0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1.0" (15%)	MOD
Arapahoe	1200 PM TO 800 PM	0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1.0" (15%)	MOD
Boulder	1200 PM TO 800 PM	0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 1.0" (10%)	LOW
Broomfield	1200 PM TO 800 PM	0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 1.0" (10%)	LOW
Denver	1200 PM TO 800 PM	0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 1.0" (10%)	LOW
Douglas	1200 PM TO 800 PM	0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1.0" (15%)	MOD
Jefferson	1200 PM TO 800 PM	0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 1.0" (10%)	LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder	1200 PM TO 800 PM	0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 1.0" (5%)	LOW
Douglas	1200 PM TO 800 PM	0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 1.0" (5%)	LOW
Jefferson	1200 PM TO 800 PM	0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 1.0" (5%)	LOW

MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.