The MHFD Heavy Rainfall Threat Analysis (hereafter, QPF-Max) creates probabilistic
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) over five forecasts zones in the Denver Metro
Area by ingesting several high-resolution atmospheric models
(
qpf.udfcd.org<https://qpf.udfcd.org/>). Real-time operations began in 2015, and
QPF-Max updates three times daily (soon to be four) during the warm season from May 1 to
September 30. QPF-Max has accurately anticipated the highest observed rainfall rates over
93% of the time, with only a 3% miss rate. This ensures that virtually all heavy rainfall
events are captured. It is well-known that urban and topographic flooding can be triggered
with rainfall intensities as low as 1 inch per hour, which are common over the Denver
Metro area during the warm season. The tool was generated to address the following
questions on heavy rainfall days:
* What will the heaviest rain rate be?
* What locations can expect the greatest threat?
* What is the timing of the greatest threat?
* What is the probability/confidence that heavy rainfall will occur?
Come join us (Wednesday, August 5th at 11AM MDT) for a training focused around how QPF-Max
was developed, but more importantly, how to use it. We'll also do a quick lookback on
some memorable output days, so you can better understand the caveats and how to interpret
the forecasts. Our goal is to give you confidence in using QPF-Max to assess the daily
heavy rainfall threat within your community.
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