Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 830 AM Mon October 3, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING
-
The low-pressure system that has brought an active weather pattern
over the region will finally start to progress eastward today which
will effectively keep storm chances in for this afternoon and evening.
Once again the strength of today's storms will depend on the amount of
daytime heating with highs only expected in the low 70's this
afternoon, which should help limit the storm potential.
-
Rain shower/isolated thunderstorm activity will initiate along the
higher terrain by midday with the best chance for storm activity in
the District between 2-8pm with a slight chance for rain showers to
linger into the overnight. Storm motions will generally be from the W
to E between 5-10mph, however, a few erratic moving storms cannot be
completely ruled out, especially if a stronger storm is able to
develop resulting in outflow boundaries that for additional slower
moving storms. The largest threat today for heavy rainfall will likely
be a quick 0.5" in 10-15 minutes, favoring areas along and east of the
I-25 corridor at this time.
-
Storm intensity will diminish quickly after sunset with scattered
rain showers possible through midnight, with off and on light rain
showers possible through daybreak Tuesday. Overnight lows will dip
into the upper 40's to low 50's on the plains with around 40 degrees
along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms will produce a trace 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate
to strong thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, slower moving thunderstorm has the
potential to produce 0.5-1.5" in 45-75 Minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: This active pattern should hold for one more day as a
slight chance remains for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms Tuesday.
However, NW flow aloft should usher in slightly drier air which will
decrease the chance for any moderate to heavy rainfall tomorrow.
Conditions look to dry out completely both Wednesday and Thursday with
no precipitation excepted in the District for both days.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
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Â
Â
Boulder
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 2 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 820 AM Sun October 2, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
COOLER TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
-
The unsettled weather pattern remains in place today bringing
another chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms resulting
in a LOW chance for Message 1 issuance. High temperatures will be
slightly cooler today, which should effectively limit the storm
intensity, with highs in the upper 60's to low 70's across the
District.
-
A few snow showers currently along the Continental Divide, which
will push eastward through the morning, turning over to rain showers
as they move into warmer air along the Front Range. A few scattered
light rain showers will be possible this morning with rain
showers/isolated thunderstorm chances picking up into the afternoon
and early evening. Due to cooler temperatures, storms strength should
be limited today, however with good upper-level support still in place
a few storms could strengthen along the I-25 corridor and eastward
this afternoon bringing a chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall
for portions of the District.
-
The best chance for storms today will be from 2-8pm with a slight
chance for lingering rain showers this evening and into the overnight.
Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40's to low 50's with skies
gradually clearing into daybreak Monday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm, or training
of thunderstorms cells has the potential to produce 1.2" in 45-60
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: This active weather pattern will hold through Monday,
however, a decrease in available moisture, combined with even cooler
high temperatures, should help limit any potential for moderate to
brief heavy rainfall. Tuesday looks to dry out completely with mostly
sunny skies as high temperatures reach around 70 degrees.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
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Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (30%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (30%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (30%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 2 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 622 PM Sat October 1, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN RESCINDED/THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED
-
Message 1's have been rescinded early and Message 4's (All Clear)
have been issued as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the
day.
-
Generally dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the
evening and overnight period with any additional rainfall being
isolated and light, favoring the foothills and Palmer Divide.
-
Rain showers may develop tomorrow morning as the low pressure system
responsible for the active weather over the past couple days will move
very little overnight. Additional rain showers and thunderstorms will
be possible again on Sunday but the threat for heavy rainfall is
expected to be lower than previous days.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful rainfall is
expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period, less
than 0.1"
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 2 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 203 PM Sat October 1, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
-
Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until 8:00 PM this evening.
-
An upper level disturbance will move overhead this afternoon and
evening producing rain showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will
have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall, hail and gusty
winds. The first line or two of storms will likely be the strongest of
the day with subsequent rounds into the evening likely favoring a
general rain versus thunderstorms.
-
Prime time for thunderstorm activity will be from roughly 3pm
through 7 or 8pm. After 7 or 8pm rain shower activity will continue
into the evening but rainfall rates are anticipated to decrease
becoming light to briefly moderate.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" of rain in 30-60 minutes. Moderate
to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall
rates of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a slower moving
thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5" of rain in 60 minutes or less.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
200 PM TO 800 PM
300 PM TO 700 PM
Jefferson County
1
200 PM TO 800 PM
300 PM TO 700 PM
Broomfield County
1
200 PM TO 800 PM
300 PM TO 700 PM
Douglas County
1
200 PM TO 800 PM
300 PM TO 700 PM
Adams County
1
200 PM TO 800 PM
300 PM TO 700 PM
Denver County
1
200 PM TO 800 PM
300 PM TO 700 PM
DIA
1
200 PM TO 800 PM
300 PM TO 700 PM
Arapahoe County
1
200 PM TO 800 PM
300 PM TO 700 PM
the City of Aurora
1
200 PM TO 800 PM
300 PM TO 700 PM
Arvada
1
200 PM TO 800 PM
300 PM TO 700 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
200 PM TO 800 PM
300 PM TO 700 PM
Lakewood
1
200 PM TO 800 PM
300 PM TO 700 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
Current TO 800 PM SAT
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 800 PM SAT
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 800 PM SAT
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 800 PM SAT
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 800 PM SAT
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 800 PM SAT
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 800 PM SAT
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
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Boulder
Current TO 800 PM SAT
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (10%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 800 PM SAT
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 800 PM SAT
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (10%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 2 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 838 AM Sat October 1, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
-
The trough of low-pressure has stalled out resulting in little
change to the overall pattern today with another good chance for a
round or two of afternoon thunderstorms will last into the evening
with rain showers likely persisting into the overnight once again. Due
to this pattern, there will be a moderate chance for Message 1's to be
issued for this afternoon.
-
The severity of storms today will hinge on whether or not we get
sufficient daytime heating, however, with good upper-level support
today, there will be a decent chance of seeing moderate to brief heavy
rainfall between 2-8pm across the District with light to moderate rain
showers through midnight and off and on light rain possible through
daybreak Sunday. Storm motions will be from W to E between 5-10mph,
with erratic storm motions possible off outflow boundaries which will
also increase chances for brief heavy rainfall this afternoon. Some
storms may also contain gusty winds 50+mph, hail up to 1" and frequent
cloud to ground lightning.
-
Overnight rain showers should remain light, although, with good
upper-level support through the overnight a few stronger storms can
not be completely ruled out at this time, mainly through midnight.
Overnight lows will drop into the mid 40's to around 50 degrees with
partly to mostly cloudy skies.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce a trace to 0.30" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. moderate to
strong thunderstorms will produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An erratic, slow moving storm, or training of
thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 1.6" in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: This pattern holds at least through tomorrow with
another chance for rain showers/thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening. Sufficient moisture aloft and at the surface will likely keep
at least a low chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall tomorrow.
Will update tomorrow with another HPO if needed.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Boulder
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Broomfield
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Denver
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Douglas
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Jefferson
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
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Â
Â
Boulder
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
MOD
Douglas
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
MOD
Jefferson
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 2 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 807 PM Fri September 30, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM/ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
-
Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM as the threat for
heavy rainfall has ended for the day.
-
Now that temperatures have cooled into the 50's the threat for
thunderstorms has diminished with additional rain showers continuing
overnight into early Saturday morning.
-
Additional rain showers will be light to briefly moderate with best
chances through about 2am then only isolated coverage is expected into
daybreak Saturday morning.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a
trace to 0.3" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm is able to develop
producing rainfall rates of 0.3-0.7" in 10-30 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 800 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 800 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 800 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
Current TO 400 AM SAT
Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 400 AM SAT
Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 400 AM SAT
Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 400 AM SAT
Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 400 AM SAT
Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 400 AM SAT
Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 400 AM SAT
Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
Current TO 400 AM SAT
Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 400 AM SAT
Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 400 AM SAT
Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 2 months