August 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 820 AM Tue August 31, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER HOT, HAZY AND DRY DAY TODAY - High-pressure continues to dominate over the region today leading to continued hazy and dry conditions throughout the day. - Once again high temperatures will be in the 90's along the plains with mid to upper 80's along the foothills. The current record high temperature for today is 98 degrees at DIA and we will be close to hitting that in some areas this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies currently with clouds increasing this afternoon and into the evening. - Overnight will be mild as low temperatures drop into the upper 50's to low 60's for the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Not much change in the overall pattern to start the day Wednesday as high temperatures once again reach the low to mid 90's on the plains. A strong disturbance is poised to makes its way into the District late Wednesday with a chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms ahead of the disturbance, with rain shower chances continuing through the evening and overnight into early Thursday morning. As the disturbance moves over the District Thursday, high temperatures will cool into more seasonable low to mid 80's with another good chance for afternoon rain showers/thunderstorms, with a decent chance at this time for isolated moderate to heavy rainfall. Storm chances linger through Thursday evening with rainfall tapering off after midnight. Friday will remain cooler with high temperatures in the upper 70's to low 80's on the plains with another chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 833 AM Mon August 30, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT, HAZY AND DRY - High-pressure starts to build today leading to warmer high temperatures in the low to mid 90's for the plains with low to mid 80's along the foothills. - Hazy skies will be on the increase today as wildfire smoke continues to pour into the region from the west. Relatively mild conditions are anticipated for today with mostly sunny skies early with partly cloudy skies this afternoon. - Overnight skies gradually clear with lows dipping into the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains, with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions Tuesday with hot and hazy conditions continuing throughout the day and into the evening. A hot and hazy start to Wednesday before a change in the pattern for the late afternoon bringing a slight chance for scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with a chance for overnight rain showers into Thursday. At this time the threat for heavy rain is minimal at best. Thursday a good chance for off and on rain showers during the morning with a slight chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. With an increase in moisture, Thursday will likely be the best chance for isolated heavy rainfall. Similar conditions remain in place Friday with another chance for afternoon and early evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 837 AM Sun August 29, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - A cold front moved through the region yesterday which has brought increased cloud cover over the District this morning. Temperatures today will be a more seasonable low to mid 80's with partly cloudy skies throughout most of the day. - A very slight chance this afternoon for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, with storms favoring the Palmer Divide at this time. Best chance for storms will be between 3-8pm with skies clearing after sunset. Although storms are favoring the Palmer Divide today, a few scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon and evening favoring southern portion of the District. - Partly cloudy skies will help keep temperatures cooler today as well as limit the potential for stronger storms. However, with upper 40's to around 50 dew points currently and little to no chance they will mix out throughout the day, even weak to moderate storms will have the potential to produce brief moderate to heavy rainfall if storms are able to develop this afternoon and early evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, slow moving thunderstorm has the potential to produce 1.2" in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure returns briefly Tuesday and Wednesday bringing hot, hazy and dry conditions once again across the District. A strong disturbance is poised to enter the region late Wednesday bringing a chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms Wednesday evening with off and on rain showers possible through the overnight and into Thursday. Both Thursday and Friday will have a chance for rain showers with a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1039 AM Sat August 28, 2021 Forecaster: Tim Tonge ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT SUNNY AND DRY - Dry conditions expected today, with highs in the upper 80's to low 90s. Skies look to be sunny much of the day, becoming partly cloudy later afternoon or evening. - Gusty winds of 15-25mph with the passing of a second cool front this evening with dry conditions continuing. Overnight, temperatures will drop into the low 60s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: On Sunday, temperatures will be slightly cooler, reaching the low 80âs with a chance of isolated late afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts on Sunday look to be on the lighter side. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1028 AM Fri August 27, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SUNNY AND MILD TO START THE DAY WITH CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - A relatively mild start to the day as high temperatures reach the upper 80's to low 90's this afternoon. There is a chance for afternoon to evening rain showers and thunderstorms across the Front Range Urban Corridor ahead of tomorrow morningâs frontal passage. Storms are expected roll off the higher terrain by mid-afternoon, moving in an east-northeast direction. - Storms are expected to initiate along the higher terrain by mid-day, with storms rolling off the foothills by mid-afternoon. Prime time for storms today will be from 3pm to 9pm. Storm potential will decrease throughout the evening, becoming calm overnight. Storm motions will be from the W/SW to E/NE between 10-15mph which will help limit point rainfall amounts, however a slower moving storm formed off an outflow cannot be completely ruled out at this time. - Dew points across The District are currently in the mid to upper 40's. Dew points are expected to drop into the upper 30 low 40s throughout the day, however if dew points do not mix out, the potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall will increase. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/thunderstorms will produce between a Trace-0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm formed off an outflow boundary has the potential to produce 1" of rainfall in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The approaching cool front will sweep across the plains from the north early tomorrow morning, lowering weekend high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s Saturday, and low to mid 80s on Sunday. This front also brings a chance of isolated evening showers on Saturday and Sunday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 811 PM Thu August 26, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CLIP NORTHERN AREAS OF THE DISTRICT LATE THIS EVENING - Tail end of an upper level disturbance is expected to graze northern areas of the District this evening. As this disturbance passes between 10pm and 2am there will be a modest chance for showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas N of I-70 with lesser chances southward. Being the furthest north, Boulder County will have the best chances for measurable rain overnight. - Showers and thunderstorms will be fast moving from SW to NE at 20-30mph which is expected to keep the flooding threat at bay but a stronger storm may still be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall as surface moisture slowly returns. Fast moving rain showers and weak to briefly moderate thunderstorms are expected to be the main culprits tonight. - After 2am any shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to have pushed east of the District with dry conditions for the remainder of the overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm develops with the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" of heavy rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Conditions are trending dry for Friday under sunny to mostly sunny skies with temperatures running above seasonal averages. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1000 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 1000 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Boulder 1000 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (20%) LOW Broomfield 1000 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) LOW Denver 1000 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas 1000 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson 1000 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Douglas 1000 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson 1000 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) LOW Boulder 900 PM TO 100 AM FRI Trace (100%) to 0.2" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 505 PM Thu August 26, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN RESCINDED/THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED - Message 4's (All Clear) has been issued for the entire District as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. Surface moisture has been scoured out lowering dew points and eliminating the threat for heavy rainfall. - An isolated rain shower or weak thunderstorm remains possible well into the evening as a disturbance is moving into western Colorado currently. The area of showers/thunderstorms over eastern UT/western CO currently will move through overnight and keep a chance for showers and weak thunderstorms going into the early morning hours on Friday. - Best chances for additional shower activity overnight will be between 10pm and 2am. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 200 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 200 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Boulder Current TO 200 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 200 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Denver Current TO 200 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Douglas Current TO 200 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 200 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 200 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Douglas Current TO 200 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 200 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1148 AM Thu August 26, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 10pm this evening. An upper level disturbance will move through this afternoon and is expected to produce isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening. Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall. - Showers and thunderstorms will move from SW to NE at around 20mph helping to limit point rainfall amounts from a single storm. Outflow boundaries from storms outside the District may help to anchor or slow down a stronger storm resulting in an extended period of heavy rainfall which may lead to excessive runoff. - Best chances for thunderstorm activity will be through 9 or 10pm this evening. Beyond 10pm additional rain showers and weaker thunderstorms remain possible until about midnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Moisture levels remain higher than anticipated resulting in moderate to strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes and up to 2.5" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Denver 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1022 AM Thu August 26, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNS TO THE DISTRICT - An upper level disturbance will position SW flow over the District today, facilitating an active weather pattern this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, capable of producing moderate to briefly heavy rainfall will sweep across the Front Range Urban Corridor between 1pm and 7pm with a second wave possible later in the evening. Prime time for thunderstorm activity is from 2-10pm. - There is some uncertainty to the strength of the storms today as surface moisture is abundant this morning with dew points in the 50's to lower 60's but the higher dew point air is expected to be pushed eastward by early afternoon. If the higher moisture values remain as far W as the I-25 corridor then storms may be stronger than currently anticipated later today. Storms from outside the District may also produce outflow boundaries that push moisture back into the District providing additional fuel for storms resulting in a moderate threat for heavy rainfall. - Thunderstorms will move from SW to NE at around 20mph which will help to limit point rainfall amounts from a single storm. Slower moving storms that develop on outflow boundaries will pose the greatest risk for extended periods of heavy rainfall today. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Moisture levels remain higher than anticipated resulting in moderate to strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes and up to 2.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The rest of the week will be relatively quiet across northeastern Colorado, with highs in the upper 80's to low 90's with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Models show a cool front will descend onto the plains overnight and early Sunday morning, lowering high temperatures into the mid 80's on Sunday afternoon over the plains with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms possible. Wildfire smoke will continue to flow into the state, creating hazy skies through early next week. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (20%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) MOD Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (20%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (20%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (20%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (20%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (20%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 8 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 854 AM Wed August 25, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT AND A LITTLE HAZY TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED EVENING RAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS - High-pressure continues to hold over the region today resulting in another hot and slightly hazy day today as high temperatures reach the upper 80's to low 90's across the plains with low to mid 80's along the foothills. - Dry conditions are likely throughout most of the day for the District, however a slight chance for an evening round or rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. At this time, storms chances favor areas just north of the District and towards the eastern plains. Best chance for storms this evening will be from 6-10pm with skies gradually clearing through the overnight and into Thursday. Currently models suggest decent development to the north of the District which could result in a gust front which could potentially trigger additional, slow moving storms southward and into the northern portion of the District resulting in a low chance for a heavy rainfall threat at this time. If these storms are able to develop, it will increase the threat for heavy rainfall this evening. - Overnight should be mild as lows drop into the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with upper 40's to low 50's for the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm will be able to produce 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving or stationary moderate to strong thunderstorm has the potential to produce 1.2" of rainfall in 60-90 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A disturbance will move through the region Thursday bringing slightly cooler high temperatures along with a better chance for widespread afternoon and early evening rain showers/thunderstorms. There will also be a slight chance for severe weather including gusty winds, large hail and heavy rain. Warmer Friday as high temperatures jump back into the low to mid 90's. A slight chance Friday afternoon and early evening for scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. Similar conditions Saturday as high temperatures remain in the low 90's along with dry conditions at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 500 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 500 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 500 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Broomfield 500 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Denver 500 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 500 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Jefferson 500 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 500 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 500 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Jefferson 500 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 8 months

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