August 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 754 AM Thu August 5, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT, HAZY AND DRY - NW flow aloft has increased the wildfire smoke overnight and into this morning and will continue to do so throughout the day. - Mostly sunny skies will increase temperatures into the low to mid 90's for the plains with mid to upper 80's along the foothills. A few scattered clouds possible this afternoon, although no precipitation is expected today or this evening. - Overnight will continue hazy and dry with lows dipping into the low to mid 60's for the plains with mid to upper 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions to start the day Friday with hazy skies as highs reach the mid 90's. A weak disturbance moves into the region Friday afternoon resulting in a slight chance for scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with minimal, if any, threat for heavy rainfall. Back to hot and dry for the weekend with a increase in hazy conditions likely once again. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 837 AM Wed August 4, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - A few lingering rain showers this morning have since moved eastward and out of the District at this time. Partly cloudy skies remain and will continue throughout the day with a very slight chance for widely scattered late afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. - Temperatures today will reach the low to mid 80's on the plains with low to mid 70's along the foothills. Most areas will be expected to stay dry today, however a few rain showers/isolated may develop along the foothills this afternoon with a very slight chance any rain showers/isolated thunderstorms move into the District. Best chance will be from 3-7pm with skies clearing through the rest of the evening. Dew points are currently elevated, in the mid 50's, as lingering low-level moisture remains in place. This low--level moisture is expected to mix out as the morning progresses, however, if the elevated surface moisture remains in place, there will be a better chance for rain showers/thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the early evening. - Overnight will be mild with temperatures dropping into the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a TR-0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm formed off an outflow boundary, or training of moderate thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 1.2" in under 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Haze and high-pressure to return late this evening, through the rest of the week and into this weekend. Temperatures will be on the increase tomorrow as highs are expected to flirt with 90 degrees for most areas in the District. as the high-pressure ridge returns, dry conditions are expected to accompany the ridge over the next several days along with temperatures well into the 90's by this weekend. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (25%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (25%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (25%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (25%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (25%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (25%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (25%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 952 PM Tue August 3, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 10pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has come to an end. A few lingering rain showers continue to move off the foothills and onto the plains and will continue to do so over the next few hours. - Typical rain showers at this time will move from NW to SE between 5-15mph and produce between TR-0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes with a few small pockets of moderate rain showers that could produce 0.2-0.5" in 45-60 minutes. Best chance for rain showers will be from now until midnight with a few lingering off and on light to moderate rain showers possible after midnight and through daybreak Wednesday. - Temperatures are currently in the mid 60's to around 70 out at DIA. Temperatures will continue to decrease through the overnight with lows dropping into the mid 50s to low 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce TR-0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain showers or weak thunderstorms could produce 0.2-0.5" in 45-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm, or training of rain showers has the potential to produce 1.5" in 60-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 700 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 700 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 700 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 700 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 700 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 700 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 700 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 700 AM WED Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 700 AM WED Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 700 AM WED Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 107 PM Tue August 3, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 10pm this evening. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the coming hours and will be capable of producing heavy rainfall later this afternoon and evening. Prime time for stronger thunderstorms is from 3-9pm. Thunderstorms will be slow moving and may result in extended periods of heavy rain that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. - Stronger storms today may favor areas S of I-70 and E of Hwy 85 as there has been more sunshine and more heating through early afternoon to fuel storms in this area. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.5-1.5" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.5" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (65%) to 1.5" (35%) ISSUED Broomfield 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Denver 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (65%) to 1.5" (35%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (65%) to 1.5" (35%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (65%) to 1.5" (35%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 855 AM Tue August 3, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TOTHE DISTRICT - Plume of moisture to the west yesterday will move overhead today along with a passing upper level disturbance resulting in rain showers and thunderstorms returning to the District. Showers are already ongoing over portions of Jefferson and Boulder Counties and any shower activity this morning will favor the higher terrain. - Thunderstorms will develop by around noon over the foothills and slowly begin to develop over the plains between 2-4pm. Best chances for thunderstorms will be from 4-10pm with lingering rain showers likely until midnight or shortly after. Cloud cover may limit heating and in turn may keep thunderstorms more weak to moderate today? Moderate to strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. - The foothills and Palmer Divide are expected to experience the more numerous storms than the plains but the stronger thunderstorm activity may favor S/SE areas of the District where there is expected to be a bit more sunshine through the first half of the day. Showers and thunderstorms will be slow moving and result in extended periods of moderate and heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.5-1.5" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Moisture remains in place on Wednesday but begins to decrease with less numerous showers and thunderstorms compared to today. Widely scattered thunderstorm coverage is expected in the afternoon with a lower threat for heavy rainfall. Thursday is trending dry at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 400 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Arapahoe 400 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Broomfield 400 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Denver 400 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Boulder 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Douglas 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 901 AM Mon August 2, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- THE PLAINS MAY SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY WHILE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN - Plume of monsoon moisture lurks to the west and will result in thunderstorms developing over the mountains and higher foothills this afternoon. Upper level steering winds will keep the majority of the activity over the mountains with possibly a late afternoon or evening rain shower/thunderstorm developing over western areas of the District. Most areas over the plains likely squeeze out another dry day... - Between 2-4pm shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to begin to develop W of the District. Outflow from storms to the W may push eastward and result in shower and thunderstorm initiation in or near the District between 4-8pm. A slight chance for isolated showers and weak thunderstorms will continue through about midnight. If shower/weak thunderstorm activity is able to develop it is expected to favor areas W of I-25 and in particular in/near the foothills. - Haze will continue to plague visibilities today but overall skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy through the afternoon becoming mostly cloudy late. Temperatures will warm into the 80's over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain. Weak thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: The monsoon moisture pushes further E than anticipated increasing moisture and resulting in moderate to strong thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening with the potential to produce 0.5-1.5" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The monsoon moisture plume is anticipated to move over the District on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday is expected to be the more active day but Wednesday may surprise to the upside? Thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 600 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 600 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Broomfield 600 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 600 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Boulder 500 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 500 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 500 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) MOD Douglas 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) MOD Jefferson 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 831 AM Sun August 1, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- A DRY DAY EXPECTED OVER THE DISTRICT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HAZE - With below normal temperatures over the plains today thunderstorm activity is expected to remain over the mountainous areas of the state leaving the District on the dry side. Highs this afternoon will warm into the mid 70's to lower 80's over the plains with 60's/70's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 90 degrees. - Haze due to smoke has increased and will lower visibilities today with mostly cloudy skies this morning giving way to mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Any thunderstorm is projected to remain to the W/SW of the District along the Continental Divide westward and over Park County to the southwest. - Conditions expected to remain dry overnight into Monday morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation expected today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: Isolated to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms return to the District on Monday and increase in coverage on Tuesday. There will likely be a low risk for heavy rainfall on Monday and a moderate to high threat on Tuesday. Temperatures will moderate with highs in the lower 80's Monday and mid 80's Tuesday over the I-25 corridor. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 900 PM Sat July 31, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9PM - Message 2's will be allowed to expire at 9:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall over the District has ended. All previous Message 1 LIF's have also expired or will expire at 9:00pm. Now that temperatures are in the 60's precipitation will favor light to briefly moderate rain showers. - Rain showers will continue possible well into the evening eventually ending from N to S. By around midnight generally dry conditions are expected into Sunday morning. - Light rain showers this evening may produce minor runoff, excessive runoff is no longer anticipated. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.3" in 30-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A weak thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Boulder County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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hpo-ims August 2021