Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 543 PM Fri June 30, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6PM
Message 1’s will expire at 6pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has
come to an end.
Showers and thunderstorms have moved south and eastward and out of the
District at this time. Sunny to partly sunny skies currently with
temperatures in the low to mid 60’s.
A few showers/isolated thunderstorms persist to the north and
northwest and could impact the District later this evening. The best
chance for additional storm development between 7-9pm with a few
lighter showers possibly lingering though 10pm.
Upper-level winds will shift westerly to northwesterly through the
rest of the evening which should keep down sloping winds, keeping a
minimal chance for additional shower activity. Low to mid 50’s dew
points at the surface will likely keep at least a LOW threat for
Message 1’s to be reissued this evening, however the threat for that
should be minimal at this time.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms will produce trace-0.20” total, in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.20-0.60” total, in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 1.2” in 45-60
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Denver
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
10 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 114 PM Fri June 30, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S WILL CONTINUE VALID UNTIL 6 PM
Message 1’s will continue to be valid until 6pm as the threat of
heavy rainfall remains over the District.
An early morning round of showers/thunderstorms moved over the
District and has continued eastward at this time. Another round of
showers/thunderstorms is moving in from the W/NW and will likely
impact the District over the next several hours.
Cooler temperatures behind the line of storms this morning could help
limit the strength of storms into the afternoon. Although with some
elevated spots of higher dew points, combined with the approaching
upper-level disturbance, the threat of heavy rainfall will remain into
the early evening hours.
A slight chance storms linger past 6pm, however, drier air will start
to push into the region this evening which could help limit rainfall
potential into the evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms will produce 0.20-0.40” total, in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to heavy thunderstorm could produce 0.40-1.20” total, in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 2.00” in 45-60
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
10 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 934 AM Fri June 30, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective
until 6pm.
Storms have initiated early this morning, with another stronger round
expected this late this morning and into the afternoon hours. Storms
this morning could possibly produce some brief moderate to heavy rain
with the largest threat being a quick 0.5” in 10-15 minutes.
Typical storm movements will be from W/NW to E/SE between 10-20mph
which should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, with low to
mid 50 dew points, a stalled out storm formed along an outflow
boundary will have the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall.
The best chance for storm activity will be from now through the late
afternoon with storms likely decreasing into the evening with skies
clearing this evening. A chance for isolated heavy rain this morning,
with a better chance for widespread storms along the I-25 corridor
during the afternoon. Some of these storms could become severe with
large hail up to 1.5”, gusty winds 60+mph, frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning. A weak land spout/tornado cannot be completely ruled out,
favoring areas east of I-25.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms will produce 0.25-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to heavy thunderstorm could produce 0.50-1.50” total, in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 2.50” in 45-60
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Adams County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 530 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
10 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 854 AM Fri June 30, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING REULTING IN
ISOLATED AM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
Storms early this morning, with another stronger round expected this
late this morning and into the afternoon hours. Storms this morning
could possibly produce some brief moderate to heavy rain, especially
if a storm produces an outflow boundary which has the potential to
initiate additional storms.
Typical storm movements will be from west to east between 10-20mph
which should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, with low to
mid 50 dew points, a stalled out storm formed along an outflow
boundary will have the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall.
The best chance for storm activity will be from now through the late
afternoon/early evening with storms likely decreasing into the evening
with skies clearing by midnight tonight. A chance for isolated heavy
rain this morning, with a better chance for widespread storms along
the I-25 corridor during the afternoon. Some of these storms could
become severe with large hail up to 2”, gusty winds 60+mph, frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning. A weak land spout/tornado cannot be
completely ruled out, favoring areas east of I-25.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms will produce 0.25-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to heavy thunderstorm could produce 0.50-1.50” total, in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 2.50” in 45-60
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: This severe weather pattern will shift tomorrow,
resulting in a less chance for strong storms with the potential for
large hail, gusty winds and an isolated tornado decreases
significantly. More typical afternoon showers/thunderstorms will be
possible both Saturday and Sunday. A slight chance low-level moisture
remains elevated tomorrow which could bring at least a LOW chance for
Message 1’s Saturday.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Boulder
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Broomfield
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Denver
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Douglas
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Jefferson
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Douglas
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Jefferson
Current TO 600 PM FRI
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
10 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 255 AM Fri June 30, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4AM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 4am as the threat for
heavy rainfall has come to an end.
A few linger showers/isolated thunderstorms are impacting eastern
portions of the District at this time, but should be out of the
District by 4am. Minimal to no additional shower activity is expected
through daybreak, however with elevated surface moisture in place, a
LOW chance for Messages to be issued through daybreak.
Another good chance for storms this afternoon. The best chance
currently will be between noon and 5pm with skies likely clearing into
the evening. Once again some of these storms could become severe,
bringing large hail, gusty winds, and possibly an isolated tornado,
favoring areas east of I-25.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce a trace to 0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate
thunderstorm could produce 0.20-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger cell is able to develop and will have
the potential to produce up to 1” in 45-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Lakewood
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Arvada
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
DIA
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Denver County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Adams County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 700 AM FRI
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 700 AM FRI
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
Current TO 700 AM FRI
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
Current TO 700 AM FRI
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
Current TO 700 AM FRI
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 700 AM FRI
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 700 AM FRI
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 700 AM FRI
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 700 AM FRI
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 700 AM FRI
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
10 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 133 AM Fri June 30, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT UNTIL 4AM
Message 1’s have been reissued for Arapahoe County, including
Aurora, and Douglas County effective until 4am.
A moderate late evening thunderstorm moved through northern portions
of the District setting off and outflow boundary into Douglas County.
This has initiated strong storm development in these late hours and
will likely continue for southern portions of the District through the
early morning hours.
Storms have already produced over 1” of rainfall near the Lone Tree
area, with storms continuing to move E/NE between 10-20mph at this
time. Even with these speeds, quick heavy rainfall is expected under
some of these storms as they continue eastward and out of the District
by daybreak.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the
potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.20-0.40" total,
in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce
moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.2" total, in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stationary or training of slow-moving
thunderstorms have the potential
to produce up to 2.0” total, in 45-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Adams County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Denver County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
DIA
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Arvada
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 400 AM FRI
0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 400 AM FRI
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 400 AM FRI
0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 400 AM FRI
0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 400 AM FRI
0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 400 AM FRI
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 400 AM FRI
0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 400 AM FRI
0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 400 AM FRI
0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 400 AM FRI
0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
10 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1137 PM Thu June 29, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1159PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 11:59 pm as the threat of
heavy rainfall has come to an end.
A few showers/isolated thunderstorms continue to impact portions of
the District behind a gust front from the north. Storm motions have
increased to 15-25mph from the W/SW to E/NE which will limit point
rainfall amounts for any additional showers/isolated thunderstorms
through the overnight. A chance for off and on showers will be
possible through daybreak tomorrow, however these showers will likely
be hit or miss with many areas ending up dry through tomorrow morning.
Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 50’s on the plains with
upper 40’s to around 50 along the foothills. Upper-level flow aloft
shift more westerly tomorrow with breezy northerly winds with gusts up
to 25mph in the afternoon. Another good chance for storms tomorrow
afternoon, although the intensity of these storms will hinge on
whether there is sufficient daytime heating.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers or a weak
thunderstorm will produce a trace to 0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes.
A moderate to strong thunderstorm could produce 0.25-0.50” total, in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or training
of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 0.50-1.25” total,
in under 60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 600 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 600 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 600 AM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 600 AM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 600 AM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 600 AM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 600 AM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 600 AM FRI
Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 600 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 600 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
10 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1201 PM Thu June 29, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective
until 1159pm.
A few isolated storms are starting to initiate along the foothills
currently and will continue to build over the next hour or two before
moving into the District. Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms
will be possible today with a good chance for heavy rainfall leading
to localized flooding through the afternoon and evening.
Typical storm movements will be from W/SW to E/NE between 5-10mph.
Some erratic storm movements will be possible as storms form and stall
out along outflow boundaries. These storms will likely have the
highest chance of producing longer lasting heavy rainfall. Storms
today will have the potential to produce both a quick 0.5” in 10
minutes as well as over 1” per hour rainfall if a storm stalls out
for an extended time, or training of thunderstorms cells.
Storm intensities should diminish after midnight tonight. However, if
the heavy rainfall threat persists past midnight, Message 1’s may
need to be extended.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the
potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.25-0.50" total,
in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce
moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.5-1.5" total, in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stationary or training of slow-moving
thunderstorms have the potential
to produce up to 2.4” total, in 45-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Denver County
1
100 PM TO 1159 PM
100 PM TO 1159 PM
Adams County
1
100 PM TO 1159 PM
100 PM TO 1159 PM
Douglas County
1
100 PM TO 1159 PM
100 PM TO 1159 PM
Broomfield County
1
100 PM TO 1159 PM
100 PM TO 1159 PM
Jefferson County
1
100 PM TO 1159 PM
100 PM TO 1159 PM
Boulder County
1
100 PM TO 1159 PM
100 PM TO 1159 PM
DIA
1
100 PM TO 1159 PM
100 PM TO 1159 PM
Arapahoe County
1
100 PM TO 1159 PM
100 PM TO 1159 PM
the City of Aurora
1
100 PM TO 1159 PM
100 PM TO 1159 PM
Arvada
1
100 PM TO 1159 PM
100 PM TO 1159 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
100 PM TO 1159 PM
100 PM TO 1159 PM
Lakewood
1
100 PM TO 1159 PM
100 PM TO 1159 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Boulder
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Denver
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Douglas
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Douglas
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
10 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 840 AM Thu June 29, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
COOLER AND CLOUDY TO START THE DAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON &
EVE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
Cooler and cloudy to start the day as a disturbance is poised to
move over the District this afternoon, through the evening with a
slight chance for some overnight showers/isolated thunderstorms.
Currently temperatures are in the mid 60’s with highs expected in
the mid to upper 70’s this afternoon. Dew points are currently
elevated, in the mid 50’s and will likely remain if not increase as
the day progresses.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely initiate along the higher
terrain by midday today. The best chance for storm activity within the
District will be from 1pm through midnight, with a few lingering
showers through the overnight, tapering off between 2-4am. Multiple
rounds of showers/thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening with a good chance of isolated heavy rainfall resulting in a
HIGH chance for Message 1’s to be issued.
Storm motions will be the typical W/SW to E/NE motions between 5-10mph
with some erratic storm movement likely off outflow boundaries. Storms
may also contain large hail, strong winds, frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning and possible an isolated land spout/weak tornado, mainly for
eastern portions of the District.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and
thunderstorms will produce a 0.25-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.50-1.50” total, in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm anchors off an outflow
boundary, or training of thunderstorms could potentially produce up to
2.4” total in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place Friday, although
upper-level shifts northwesterly, leading to slightly less chances for
heavy rainfall as storms expected to increase in speed during the day
and into the evening Friday. Currently at least a MODERAT threat for
Heavy rainfall will be possible tomorrow. This weekend will remain
active with afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorm chances both
Saturday and Sunday. However, the threat of heavy rainfall will be
isolated, likely keeping a LOW chance for Message 1’s to be issued.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Boulder
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Broomfield
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Denver
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Douglas
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Jefferson
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Douglas
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1.5" (40%)
HIGH
Jefferson
100 PM TO 1159 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1.5" (40%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
10 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 953 PM Wed June 28, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA
A few high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms are rolling off the
foothills and into the district. This activity is expected to exit the
District by 1130PM. Most if not all precipitation will struggle to
reach the surface due to drying in the low levels. Additional isolated
storms are possible if storms form again across the foothills.
For the remainder of the overnight, a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms will persist through 400AM. Otherwise, overnight will be
mild with temps dropping into the low to mid 50’s for the plains
with mid to upper 40’s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce a 0.10”-0.40" total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate
thunderstorm will produce 0.40-0.70” total, in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An outflow boundary from storms east of Denver
could initiate overnight thunderstorms across the District producing
moderate to heavy rainfall up to 1.50” total in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: A better chance for showers/thunderstorms Thursday as a
disturbance moves through the region. An uptick in overall moisture,
combined with upper-level support will likely result in a chance for
heavy rainfall Thursday. Similar conditions remain in place Friday,
although upper-level shifts northwesterly, leading to slightly less
chances for heavy rainfall as storms expected to increase in speed
during the day and into the evening Friday. This weekend will remain
fairly active with afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorm chances
both Saturday and Sunday.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1130 PM WED
0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 1130 PM WED
0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
Current TO 1130 PM WED
0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
Current TO 1130 PM WED
0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Denver
Current TO 1130 PM WED
0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 1130 PM WED
0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 1130 PM WED
0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1130 PM WED
0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 1130 PM WED
0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 1130 PM WED
0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
10 months, 2 weeks