Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 858 PM Wed May 31, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10pm as the threat of
heavy rainfall has ended for the day.
A few showers persist over the District at this time, however, the
threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. These showers and a weak
thunderstorm or two will last for the next few hours favoring areas W
of I-25 over the foothills, before gradually clearing into the
overnight. Storm motions continue to be south to north, with areas
along the foothills and west of I25 having the best chance for rain
showers through the rest of the evening.
Not much change in the overall pattern heading into tomorrow with
another good chance for widespread afternoon/eve rain showers and
thunderstorms. There will continue to be a chance of severe weather
under stronger storms, mainly for gusty winds and hail up to an inch.
These strong thunderstorms will likely contain pockets of heavy
rainfall which could lead to isolated flash flooding.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce a TR-0.2” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower, or a
weak thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.4” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm has the
potential to produce 0.4-0.8” in up to 60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (85%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (65%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 616 PM Wed May 31, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID
Message 1’s will continue valid until 10pm as the threat of heavy
rain remains into this evening.
An explosive round of thunderstorms impacted parts of the District
this afternoon and have since moved N/NE and out of the District.
These storms contained lots of hail, rather than heavy rainfall with
very gusty winds resulting in a few severe thunderstorms. A couple of
gust fronts continue to initiate storms relatively close to the
eastern edge of the District and these storms could trend into the
District into the later evening. As we move closer to nightfall, the
chances for explosive development leading to hail will diminish,
however, the chance for moderate to heavy rainfall will likely persist
into the evening.
The best chance for additional storms will be from now through 10pm
with lingering showers possible through midnight. Storm motions
continue to be from south to north, between 5-10mph, with some erratic
storm movement off gust fronts possible through the rest of the
evening. Skies will gradually clear after midnight with overnight lows
dropping to into the low 50’s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms
will produce TR-0.25” of rain in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfallrates of 0.25-0.75" in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may
result in up to 1.25” of rain
in 45-75 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (15%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (15%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months