June 2023 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1003 PM Fri June 16, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2'S HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM Message 2’s (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) has been allowed to expire at 10:00 PM as the rainfall is coming to an end. A few lingering light rain showers will remain possible through about 2am then dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the overnight period into Saturday morning. Additional rainfall is expected to be minor, less than 0.2” most locations. Areas of fog may develop overnight and persist into daybreak on Saturday over the plains. Abundant surface moisture and daytime heating will result in afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday, some of which may contain heavy rainfall. The ground is saturated and creeks/streams are already running high in and around the District resulting in any heavy rainfall tomorrow quickly producing excessive runoff. 1-2 rounds of storms are likely tomorrow between Noon-7pm. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Additional light rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2” in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 200 AM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 200 AM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Boulder Current TO 200 AM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 200 AM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Denver Current TO 200 AM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Douglas Current TO 200 AM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 200 AM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 200 AM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Douglas Current TO 200 AM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 200 AM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 510 PM Fri June 16, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2’S CONTINUE VALID UNTIL 10:00 PM Message 2’s (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) will continue valid until 10:00 PM this evening. Temperatures in the 50’s over the District are resulting in more of a widespread non-thunderstorm rain event currently and this trend is expected to continue into the evening. The threat for heavy rainfall from thunderstorms is now lower than earlier today. With a saturated ground in many areas light to moderate rain will continue to accumulate and produce runoff, filling smaller creeks and streams into the evening. The scattered to numerous rain showers will continue likely through 8:00 or 9:00 PM, diminishing from W to E by around 10:00 PM or shortly after. Ahead of midnight dry conditions are expected to develop and continue for the remainder of the overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Non-thunderstorm rain showers are producing rainfall rates of 0.1-0.5” in 30-60 minutes. Moderate rain showers may produce up to 1.0” in 45-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Should a thunderstorm develop brief heavy rainfall of 0.5-1.5” in 10-30 minutes is possible. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 900 PM DIA 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 936 AM Fri June 16, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 2’s have been issued for the entire District effective from 10am until 10pm this evening. The Message 2’s have been issued effective prior to the start time of the NWS Flood Watch as the threat for moderate to heavy rain will be possible throughout most of the day today. A few scattered rain showers are currently over the District which could help limit the potential for stronger storm development this afternoon and evening. However, good upper-level support, which will increase as the day moves on will likely produce stronger storms this afternoon and evening with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall likely across the District. The best chance for impactful showers will start at 10am this morning, with increasing chances into the afternoon and evening before chances for heavy rainfall subsides after 10pm. With today’s storms there will be a good threat for both 0.5” or more in 10-30 minutes as well as a few areas that could have persistent moderate to heavy rainfall with over 1” per hour possible in some spots. Expect Low Impact Flooding triggering with lower initial storm amounts today between 0.35-0.45” which will likely result in pooling of water as the surface remains saturated at this time. Storms may also contain large hail, gusty winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce 0.2-0.5” total, in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms will produce 0.5-1.5” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm, or training of moderate to heavy showers/thunderstorms has the potential to produce 3.0” of rainfall in 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Douglas County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Adams County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Denver County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 1000 PM DIA 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Arvada 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Wheat Ridge 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 1000 PM Lakewood 2 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 1200 PM TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Boulder 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Denver 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Douglas 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 1000 AM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1100 PM Thu June 15, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1159PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 11:59pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. Widespread showers still persist over the District at this time and will continue over the next few hours as they slowly progress eastward. A couple pockets of moderate rainfall will be possible with these showers, favoring southern portions of the District currently. A few off and on showers will be likely through the overnight and into tomorrow. Overnight lows will drop into the low 50’s on the plains with mid to upper 40’s along the foothills. A stronger disturbance moves over the region tomorrow, bringing another good chance for widespread heavy rainfall tomorrow, with the best chance currently starting as early as 11am tomorrow morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.20” total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.20-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of moderate showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.8” total in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Boulder Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Denver Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Douglas Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Douglas Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 946 PM Thu June 15, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 11:59 PM Message 1’s have been extended to 11:59pm as the threat of heavy rainfall remains over the District. A gust front from the north stirred the pot at this late hour. These storms will likely pulse up and down over the District over the next couple of hours as they move west to east. Low to mid 50’s dew points, combined with an approaching trough of low-pressure, has resulted in good dynamics for late evening rain and thunderstorms. A few pockets of rain will likely be heavy at times, with a chance of a quick 0.5” in 10 minutes likely being the largest threat. However, due to an already saturated surface even general showers will result in pooling of water and rising creeks/streams. The best chance for storms will be from now through midnight with a few lingering off and on showers possible through daybreak tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of moderate showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.5” total in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (95%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (95%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (95%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (95%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (95%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (95%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (95%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (95%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (95%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (95%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1223 PM Thu June 15, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 10pm. Storms have initiated along the higher terrain this morning and are slowly moving eastward as the follow the upper-level disturbance. As these storms progress eastward, some erratic storm motions could develop resulting in pockets of heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding. The biggest threat today will be a quick 0.5” in 10 minutes, rather than any long-lasting rainfall, however, some training of rain showers cannot be completely ruled out, also increasing the threat for localized flooding. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be from now through 10pm this evening with a couple of rounds of storms possible. Models suggest the possibility of a late eve/overnight round of showers/isolated thunderstorms, however the threat for heavy rainfall is minimal at this time due to the timing of the storms. If these storms look to increase through the late evening/overnight, an extension of Message 1’s may be needed. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.1-0.3" total, in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.8" total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stationary or training of slow-moving thunderstorms have the potential to produce up to 1.6” total, in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 804 AM Thu June 15, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- CLOUDY, COOL WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES THIS MORING, A CHACNE FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS A disturbance will move over the region and slowly progress eastward throughout the day today. Cooler and cloudy to start the morning, could very well suppress storm intensities this afternoon. However, a good chance will remain for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms with multiple rounds of storms possible into the late evening hours. Sprinkles to light rainfall currently, will likely continue through the morning. Chances for better precipitation picks up this afternoon with the best chance for impactful rain between 1-9pm with a few lingering showers through the late evening, similar to yesterday evening. Storms are not expected to produce exceptionally heavy rainfall today. However, due to an already saturated surface, combined with sufficient low-level moisture, there will be a MOD chance for Message 1’s as the threat for localized flooding from moderate to brief heavy rain remains high. Storm motions should also help limit point rainfall amounts today, with west to east storm movements around 10mph, with some erratic storm motions possible if stronger storms are able to develop which will likely produce outflow boundaries. The outflow storms will be the most likely to produce a quick 0.5” in 10-30 minutes today. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of moderate showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.6” total in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place Friday, with another good chance for precipitation during the morning. The chance for storm activity will again pick up during the afternoon hours, lasting well into the evening. A bit drier Saturday, leading to dry conditions in the morning hours, with a slight chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Arapahoe 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Broomfield 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Denver 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 829 AM Wed June 14, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMER AND SUNNY TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS Westerly upper-level flow will dry things out for the most part today. Mostly sunny and mild conditions this morning, with a slight chance of a few isolated rain showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Storms will likely initiate along the higher terrain by midday today. The best chance for storm activity in the District will be between 2-8pm. However, rain showers will generally be hit or miss, with most areas likely remaining dry. Moisture at the surface has decreased today, bringing a much less chance for heavy rainfall, although a quick 0.5” in 10-30 minutes cannot be completely ruled out today, leading to a LOW chance for Message 1’s this afternoon. This also coincides with the elevated rainfall this season, likely resulting in any rainfall to produce some minor flooding/standing water in the usual trouble spots, with creeks and streams also rising quickly with any precipitation in the area. Storms will subside into the evening with clearing skies through the overnight. Lows will drop into the low to mid 40’s for the plains with mid to upper 40’s for the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of moderate showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.0” total in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An uptick in moisture, combined with a disturbance that will move overhead tomorrow, will result in a better chance for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. These storm chances will likely initiate in the late morning hours tomorrow, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and into the evening. A good chance some of these showers will produce heavy rainfall throughout the day tomorrow. Not much chance in the overall pattern for Friday, with another good chance for active weather in the afternoon and early evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 333 PM Tue June 13, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN WEAKER SHOWERS ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY Cloudy and cool conditons helped limit storm strength across the District today. A few lingering showers persist and will continue over the next few hours. However, the threat of heavy rainfall has lowered into the afternoon and evening. A chance will remain for additional rainfall into the evening, with the best chance from now through 8pm. A few lingering showers may persist into the later evening although the threat of heavy rain should be minimal at best after sunset. Current temperatures are in the mid to upper 50’s and should only increase a few degrees into the evening. If the sun can poke through enough, temperatures could increase a bit more, resulting in a better chance for additional showers/isolated thunderstorms into the evening. This will keep a LOW chance for Message 1’s through 8pm. Overnight, clouds should decrease with clearing skies into tomorrow morning. Another chance for afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon with likely a LOW threat for Message 1’s due to saturated soils and elevated moisture in place. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of moderate showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.0” total in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A more typical late spring weather pattern through the rest of the week with chances for afternoon rain showers/thunderstorms throughout the week. Due to persistent rainfall this season, the threat for LOW IMPACT FLOODING will be elevated this week as it wont take exceptionally strong storms to be able to produce localized flooding at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 932 AM Tue June 13, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY Upper-level flow is still blocked across the US today, but the pattern is expected to begin breaking down and shifting east tonight. Locally, moisture values remain elevated from heavy rain over the last few days. This morning will be partly cloudy with patches of fog across the District followed by high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, dew points in the upper 40s to low 50s. Forecast soundings reveal mid to upper level shear around 10-20 kt, and precipitable water values (PWAT) values between 0.65” to 0.75”. These ingredients support slow moving scattered to widespread precipitation, although much less than previous days. Rain showers will develop across the area late this morning, impacting the District through the afternoon, and are expected to exit the District by the late evening hours. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical storms have the potential to produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall of 0.25” to 0.50” in 10 to 30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.50” to 1.00” in 10 to 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchored or slow-moving thunderstorms have the potential to produce 1.00” to 1.75” in 45 to 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Looking ahead, the upper-level pattern will finally exit the region tomorrow, followed by a more seasonal pattern of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Tomorrow morning will be mostly sunny followed by highs in the mid to upper 70s and a round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 1100 AM TO 500 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Arapahoe 1100 AM TO 500 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Boulder 1100 AM TO 500 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Broomfield 1100 AM TO 500 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Denver 1100 AM TO 500 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Douglas 1100 AM TO 500 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 1100 AM TO 500 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1100 AM TO 500 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Douglas 1100 AM TO 500 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 1100 AM TO 500 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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