Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 441 AM Thu June 22, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ALL MESSAGES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6:00 AM
All Messages will be allowed to expire at 6:00 AM as the threat for
heavy rainfall has ended for the time being.
A few lingering light rain showers may persist into the mid-morning
with possibly a very isolated thunderstorm. Additional rainfall will
be minimal through the remainder of the morning, in the TR-0.2”
range with temperatures on the cool side, only warming into the 70’s
most areas to around 80 at best in areas with more sunshine.
This afternoon was previously expected to feature a good chance for
thunderstorms but with the storms yesterday afternoon which continued
through much of the overnight period, Mother Nature may give us a
relative break today. There will still be a good chance for
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, but coverage will likely be
widely scattered, and temperatures could remain too cool for stronger
storms. However, significant moisture remains in place and
thunderstorms that do develop will be very capable of producing heavy
rain. Creeks and streams are still running high, and the ground is
saturated in many areas resulting in any additional rain today
producing rapid runoff and possibly flash flooding.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a
trace to 0.2” in 30-60 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Should a weak thunderstorm develop it will have
the potential to produce 0.2-0.5” in 10-30 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
DIA
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Denver County
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Adams County
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Douglas County
2
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Arvada
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
60-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1100 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 1100 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 1100 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 1100 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 1100 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1100 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1100 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1100 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1100 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1100 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 139 AM Thu June 22, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED AND MESSAGE 2'S CONTINUE VALID FOR THE
DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been extended until 6am as the threat of heavy
rainfall remains across the District. Message 2’s will continue
valid until 6am as well.
Persistent storm development continues at this time. These storms will
likely continue over the next several hours with isolated rain showers
possible through daybreak. Storms have weakened quite a bit from the
afternoon and evening severe storms. However, elevated surface
moisture with dew points still in the 50’s, combined with continued
upper-level support, storms will continue to impact several areas over
the District. These storms still contain moderate to heavy rainfall,
with some stronger storms just off the perimeter of the District,
which can create additional gust fronts through the overnight
resulting in a chance for additional strong storm development within
the District.
Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms will easily produce excessive runoff
roadways and may result in flash flooding within the District. Due to
snow melt and recent rains many creeks and streams are already running
relatively high and additional rainfall will exacerbate flows as the
day progresses.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
0.1-0.4" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may
result in up to 2.4" of rain
in 45-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Douglas County
2
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Adams County
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Denver County
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
DIA
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Arvada
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 600 AM
Current TO 500 AM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 600 AM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 600 AM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 600 AM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 600 AM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 600 AM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 600 AM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 600 AM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 600 AM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 600 AM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 600 AM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 245 PM Wed June 21, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S AND 2'S ISSUED FOR THE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for all Counties except Douglas
County in which a Message 2 (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) has been
issued. The Message 1’s will be valid from 3:00 PM this afternoon
until 2:00 AM Thursday while the Message 2 for Douglas County is valid
from 3;00 PM this afternoon until 6:00 AM Thursday but may be
rescinded early should conditions warrant.
Multiple ingredients are rapidly coming together for thunderstorms to
develop this afternoon over the next few hours and become strong to
severe into the evening. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will be very
capable of producing heavy rainfall, large hail (possibly accumulating
hail) and gusty winds. 1-2 rounds of strong/severe thunderstorms are
expected over the course of the afternoon/evening/early overnight
period. Thunderstorms will be relatively slow moving and may produce
extended periods of heavy rain. Prime time for thunderstorms is from
4:00 PM this afternoon to 1:00 AM Thursday.
Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms will easily produce excessive runoff
roadways and may result in flash flooding within the District. Due to
snow melt and recent rains many creeks and streams are already running
relatively high and additional rainfall will exacerbate flows as the
day progresses.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
0.2-0.6" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.6-1.8" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may
result in up to 3.0" of rain in 45-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Adams County
1
300 PM TO 200 AM THURSDAY
400 PM TO 100 AM THURSDAY
Denver County
1
300 PM TO 200 AM THURSDAY
400 PM TO 100 AM THURSDAY
DIA
1
300 PM TO 200 AM THURSDAY
400 PM TO 100 AM THURSDAY
Arapahoe County
1
300 PM TO 200 AM THURSDAY
400 PM TO 100 AM THURSDAY
the City of Aurora
1
300 PM TO 200 AM THURSDAY
400 PM TO 100 AM THURSDAY
Arvada
1
300 PM TO 200 AM THURSDAY
400 PM TO 100 AM THURSDAY
Wheat Ridge
1
300 PM TO 200 AM THURSDAY
400 PM TO 100 AM THURSDAY
Lakewood
1
300 PM TO 200 AM THURSDAY
400 PM TO 100 AM THURSDAY
Douglas County
2
300 PM TO 600 AM THURSDAY
400 PM TO 100 AM THURSDAY
Broomfield County
1
300 PM TO 200 AM THURSDAY
400 PM TO 100 AM THURSDAY
Jefferson County
1
300 PM TO 200 AM THURSDAY
400 PM TO 100 AM THURSDAY
Boulder County
1
300 PM TO 200 AM THURSDAY
400 PM TO 100 AM THURSDAY
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%)
ISSUED
Boulder
300 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
300 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%)
ISSUED
Denver
300 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%)
ISSUED
Douglas
300 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
300 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (95%) to 0.6" (65%) to 1.8" (30%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (25%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 830 AM Wed June 21, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL LIKELY
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD
Today is the longest day of the year and officially the first day of
summer. Conditions will feel like summer through early afternoon with
highs reaching the mid to upper 80’s over the plains with 70’s in
the Front Range foothills prior to thunderstorms developing late this
afternoon and evening.
Multiple ingredients will be coming together for thunderstorms to
become strong to severe producing heavy rainfall, large hail and gusty
winds. Storms will begin to initiate between 4-6pm and continue likely
through midnight-2am. 1-2 rounds of strong/severe thunderstorms are
expected. Areas further west into the foothills will have a lesser
chance for strong/severe storms with areas along and E of I-25 in a
more favorable environment as moisture is deeper, but stronger storms
may back up to near the base of the foothills. Thunderstorms will be
relatively slow moving and may produce extended periods of heavy rain,
large hail and possibly accumulating hail. Message 1’s will be
issued by early to mid afternoon and most likely be valid until
midnight or 2am.
After 2am Thursday, chances for thunderstorms diminish but do not
completely go away and there could be additional showers and weaker
thunderstorms into the early morning hours on Thursday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
0.2-0.6" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.6-1.8" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may
result in up to 3.0" of rain in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: The chance for severe weather will decrease on Thursday
but with abundant moisture in place there will likely be more numerous
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with a higher
likelihood of heavy rain that may result in excessive runoff and
possibly isolated areas of flooding. The weather pattern will dry out
on Friday and dry conditions will continue through the upcoming
weekend.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
400 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (30%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
400 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (30%)
HIGH
Boulder
400 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (30%)
HIGH
Broomfield
400 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (30%)
HIGH
Denver
400 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (30%)
HIGH
Douglas
400 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (30%)
HIGH
Jefferson
400 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (30%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
300 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.8" (15%)
HIGH
Douglas
300 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.8" (15%)
HIGH
Jefferson
300 PM TO 200 AM THU
0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.8" (15%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 830 AM Tue June 20, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES/SUMMER OFFICIALLY BEGINS TOMORROW!
Many areas in and around the District reached or exceeded 90 degrees
for the first time this year yesterday but the official reporting
station for Denver (DIA) only reached a high of 87 degrees, keeping
the first official 90 degree day for Denver somewhere in the future.
Temperatures will be a little cooler today, mainly due to periods of
cloud cover this morning but skies will become mostly sunny this
afternoon and temperatures will still warm into the mid 80s to around
90 over the plains. Normal high for the date is 85 degrees.
Even though there will be periods of cloud cover, mainly this morning,
conditions will be dry today in and around the District with any
thunderstorm activity confined to the far NE corner of the state.
Winds will be breezy at times gusting up to 20mph or more this
afternoon.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation expected today
and tonight.
A LOOK AHEAD: The summer solstice will occur on Wednesday and will be
the longest day of the year and the start of the summer season.
Thunderstorms will return to the forecast in the late afternoon or
evening with widely scattered storms expected. The storms that develop
late Wednesday afternoon and evening will have the potential to become
strong to severe producing brief heavy rainfall, hail and gusty winds.
Afternoon highs Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80’s over the
plains. Cooler Thursday and with plenty of moisture to work with
thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon and evening. Stronger
storms will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall and possibly
hail. Conditions dry out on Friday and continue on the drier side over
the upcoming weekend.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 810 AM Mon June 19, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
DRY AND A LITTLE BREEZY WITH THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR!
Conditions will be dry over the District today with the first 90
degree day of the year for many over the plains. For comparison the
1st 90 degree day last year occurred on the 5th of May. The normal
high for today is 85 degrees and the record for the date is 98
degrees. Higher elevations of the foothills and Palmer Divide will
only warm into the 80’s. Winds will be breezy at times, varying from
SW to SE at 10-20mph with occasional higher gusts. Winds will weaken
this evening with overnight lows reaching the mid 50’s to around 60.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation today and
tonight.
A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will lower a few degrees on Tuesday with
afternoon highs on the plains in the 80’s to around 90. Conditions
will remain dry for another day then a cold front will move through on
Wednesday and re-introduce a good chance for late afternoon and
evening thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures. The solstice is
Wednesday the 21st and will be the first official day of summer.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 717 AM Sun June 18, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
A WARM AND DRY DAY OVER THE DISTRICT
A warmer and drier weather pattern will begin to develop today over
the District. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels this afternoon
with highs reaching the mid 80’s over the plains with 70’s in the
Front Range foothills. The normal high for Denver today is 84 degrees
and we have not reached or exceeded a high of 84 degrees since the
12th of April!
There will be a few fair weather cumulus clouds that develop over the
foothills in the afternoon with dry conditions expected in and around
the District. Winds will vary from SW to NW and could be a little
breezy at times this afternoon.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation today or
tonight.
A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will warm further on Monday and Tuesday
with many areas reaching the lower 90s for afternoon highs. A chance
for thunderstorms will return to the area on Wednesday and Thursday
along with cooler temperatures.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 608 PM Sat June 17, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ALL MESSAGES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6:00 PM
The Message 2 for Douglas County (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) has
been allowed to expire at 6:00 PM and the additional Message 1’s for
the remainder of the District have also been allowed to expire at 6:00
PM.
Behind the upper level disturbance that moved through during the early
afternoon drier air from the west is moving into the District
currently pushing the moist air further east onto the plains and this
drier air mass will completely remove the threat for heavy rainfall
for the rest of the day and provide drier conditions over the coming
days! There could be a an isolated rain showers or weak thunderstorm
into the evening but there is no longer a threat for heavy rainfall
and most areas will be dry from this point forward.
Sunday (Father’s Day) is expected to be a generally dry day over the
District with temperatures warming into the middle 80’s which is
warmer than we have experienced this year and temperatures may reach
or exceed 90 degrees on Monday and Tuesday with dry conditions
expected to continue. Summer is FINALLY arriving with a more
“normal” weather pattern for this time of year expected to unfold
over the coming weeks.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Isolated rain showers and
possibly a very isolated weak thunderstorm produce a trace to 0.2" of
rain. Most areas will be dry.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1117 AM Sat June 17, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 2’s HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY, MESSAGE 1’S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District, NOT
including Douglas County, effective now until 6pm. Message 2’s have
been issued for Douglas County, effective now until 6pm. This
coincides with the NWS Flood Watch for northeastern Douglas County
effective from noon until 6pm.
Storms have started to initiate along the foothills at this time and
will progress eastward and into the District this afternoon and early
evening. Temperatures have not warmed up significantly so far, which
should help limit the strength of storms today, however, due to the
excessive rain this season, even a moderate shower with rainfall
between 0.35-0.45” in 10-20 minutes will produce some LOW IMPACT
FLOODING today.
The best chance for storms will be from now, through 6pm with skies
quickly clearing this evening as drier air races in behind this
disturbance from the NW into the evening. Storm motions should be
relatively fast today, between 10-15 from NW to SE, hopefully helping
limit point rainfall amounts. The biggest threat today will be any
storm with moderate to brief rainfall stalling out, or erratic storm
movements from storms formed along outflow boundaries. Any persistent
moderate to heavy rainfall over 10-20 minutes will likely result in an
issuance of LOW IMPACT FLOODING today.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce a 0.10-0.0” total, in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.40-1.2” total, in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stalled strong thunderstorm, or training of
moderate to heavy
showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.8” total
in under 60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Denver County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Douglas County
2
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 600 PM
Current TO 600 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 600 PM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 600 PM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 600 PM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 600 PM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 600 PM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 600 PM SAT
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 600 PM SAT
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 600 PM SAT
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 600 PM SAT
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 600 PM SAT
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 811 AM Sat June 17, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
PARTLY CLOUDY & COOL TO START THE DAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
Another disturbance is currently moving towards the region and will
quickly progress eastward through the day. Cool and cloudy to start
the morning, could very well suppress storm intensities again this
afternoon. However, a better chance the sun pokes through today
resulting in a good chance for rain showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon.
Elevated surface moisture remains in place across the District, with
heavy rainfall expected out of any thunderstorms that do develop. This
has resulted in a Flood Watch to be issued for parts of Douglas
County, including NE Highlands Ranch and Parker. This Flood Watch is
in effect from Noon today until 6pm. A Message 2 Will be issued for
this today, likely coinciding with Message 1’s for the remainder of
the District during this same timeframe, possibly sooner and extending
later, depending on the dynamics as the morning progresses.
Storm motions should also help limit point rainfall amounts today,
with NW to SE storm movements between 10-15mph, with some erratic
storm motions possible if stronger storms are able to develop which
will likely produce outflow boundaries. The outflow storms will be the
most likely to produce a quick 0.5-1.25” in 10-30 minutes today.
Storms look to exit the District by 6 or 7pm this evening with
conditions drying out through the overnight tonight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce a 0.10-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.50-1.25” total, in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of moderate
showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 2.0” total
in under 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow starts to warm to a more seasonable upper
70’s to around 80 degrees tomorrow with our first dry day in a very
long time! A high-pressure ridge will start to build over the next few
days bringing warm and dry conditions through most of the week!
Tuesday we will even flirt with our first 90 degree day this year as
temperatures rapidly increase under mostly sunny skies.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
1200 PM TO 600 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
1200 PM TO 600 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%)
HIGH
Boulder
1200 PM TO 600 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%)
HIGH
Broomfield
1200 PM TO 600 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%)
HIGH
Denver
1200 PM TO 600 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%)
HIGH
Douglas
1200 PM TO 600 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.25" (40%)
HIGH
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 600 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (30%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
1200 PM TO 600 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%)
HIGH
Douglas
1200 PM TO 600 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.25" (40%)
HIGH
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 600 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (30%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 4 months