Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 854 AM Fri June 9, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY
A decrease in thunderstorm activity is expected today but there will
still be a modest chance for isolated to widely scattered afternoon
and evening showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm into the
lower 80’s for many locations over the plains which is near normal
for the date with 70’s in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for
Denver today is 81 degrees.
Thunderstorms will develop over the foothills between noon and 2pm.
Upper level steering winds from SW to NE will push storms onto the
plains by 2-3pm. A round or two of showers and thunderstorms are
expected through the afternoon and early evening with conditions
drying out after sunset. Typical storms today will be light to brief
moderate rainfall producers with a slight chance for a stronger
thunderstorm that would have the potential for brief heavy rainfall.
The threat for heavy rainfall is lower than previous days as surface
moisture has decreased with dew points expected to drop into the lower
40’s.
Dry conditions are expected for the later evening and overnight
period.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2” of rain. Moderate to
strong thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5” in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Dew points remain higher than anticipated with
strong thunderstorms capable of producing rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8”
in 10-30 minutes with up to 1.2” possible in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: A cold front will move through on Saturday and increase
moisture once again with scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall. Cooler Sunday with afternoon high temperatures likely
remaining in the 60’s over the plains. Scattered to numerous rain
showers are expected with embedded thunderstorms likely. Thunderstorms
will contain heavy rainfall. Continued cool on Monday with more
showers and thunderstorms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1059 PM Thu June 8, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1159PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 11:59 PM as the threat of
heavy rainfall has ended for the day.
A few lingering showers and rumbles of thunder for eastern portions of
the District currently. These showers will slowly taper off further
east and onto the plains with no more threat of heavy rainfall for the
rest of the evening and through the overnight. Skies will gradually
clear through the overnight, with a few areas of fog during the
morning hours, especially along low-lying areas.
Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 50’s for the plains
with upper 40’s to around 50 along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce a trace to 0.1” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate shower will produce 0.1-0.3" in 60
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 752 PM Thu June 8, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until midnight.
Thunderstorms are prevalent over the Front Range foothills and upper
level steering winds will push these storms onto the plains as the
evening progresses. These thunderstorms may dissipate on approach but
may also produce an outflow boundary, or a new trigger for
thunderstorm development further eastward within the District. The
scenario will play out over the next few hours…
Should a strong thunderstorm develop, it will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall and hail. With the ground at or near saturation in many
areas of the District it may not take as much rain to produce
excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.4”. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will
produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.0” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or training
of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.8” of rain in 45-75
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
830 PM TO 1100 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
830 PM TO 1100 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
830 PM TO 1100 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
830 PM TO 1100 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
830 PM TO 1100 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
830 PM TO 1100 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1159 PM
830 PM TO 1100 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
830 PM TO 1100 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1159 PM
830 PM TO 1100 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1159 PM
830 PM TO 1100 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1159 PM
830 PM TO 1100 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1159 PM
830 PM TO 1100 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (20%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (20%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (20%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 903 AM Thu June 8, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
1-2 ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN REMAINS A THREAT
Temperatures will continue to run slightly below seasonal averages
over the District today with afternoon highs climbing into the upper
70’s to around 80. Normal high for Denver today is 81 degrees.
Mostly sunny skies this morning will become mostly cloudy to cloudy
this afternoon and early evening.
Some slight changes in the weather pattern today but it will not
change our chances for thunderstorms much, it will just result in
storms moving in a different direction. Yesterday the upper level flow
was from SE to NW, today upper level winds will be more SW to NE
allowing storms that form over the foothills to move onto the plains.
Thunderstorms will develop over the foothills between noon and 2pm.
Chances for thunderstorms spread out onto the plains between 2-3pm
with prime time from 2pm to 8 or 9pm.
1-2 rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon with
additional isolated light rain showers possible after 9pm through
roughly midnight. Moisture levels remain robust in and around the
District resulting in stronger thunderstorms capable of producing
brief heavy rainfall and possibly hail. Best chances for stronger
storms today appears to be over the foothills and S of I-70 but the
presence of outflow boundaries may help spread the stronger storm
activity to other areas as well. Increased storm motions today from SW
to NE at 15-20mph will help to lower point rainfall amounts slightly
and extended periods of heavy rain is not expected but brief heavy
rain is likely. A stalled out strong thunderstorm along a wind
convergence line or training of thunderstorm cells will be the likely
culprits for extended periods of heavy rain.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.4”. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will
produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.1” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or training
of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.8” of rain in 45-60
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: A slight decrease in thunderstorm activity is expected
on Friday but there will still be a modest chance for stronger storms
with the potential for heavy rainfall. A cold front will move through
on Saturday and result in an uptick in thunderstorm coverage and
stronger storms will be more likely. Cooler Sunday in the 60’s for
afternoon highs with scattered to numerous rain showers and embedded
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will continue to have the potential to
produce heavy rainfall through the upcoming weekend which may lead to
excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.1" (15%)
MOD
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (20%)
HIGH
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.1" (15%)
MOD
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.1" (15%)
MOD
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (20%)
HIGH
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.1" (25%)
HIGH
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (20%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.1" (20%)
HIGH
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.1" (25%)
HIGH
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (55%) to 1.1" (20%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 855 PM Wed June 7, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM as the threat of
heavy rainfall has ended for the day.
A line of thunderstorms continues to impact areas east of the District
and should stay east through the rest of the evening. A few light
showers cannot be completely ruled out into the evening, favoring
areas well east in the District. Skies will gradually clear through
the overnight as lows reach the upper 40’s to low 50’s on the
plains, with mid 40’s along the foothills.
No meaningful precipitation is expected for the remainder of the
evening and overnight period.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation is
expected, less than 0.1".
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 206 PM Wed June 7, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until 10:00 PM this evening.
Thunderstorms to the south of the District have developed over the
crest of the Palmer Divide and have produced a rain cooled outflow
boundary that is moving to the N and will enter the District over the
next hour. This boundary will likely initiate new thunderstorm
development as it progresses northward this afternoon with slow
moving, strong storms possible into the evening. Best chances for
thunderstorms will be through 9 or 10:00 PM with additional lighter
rain showers continuing into the early overnight period.
Upper level steering winds are very light from S/SSE to N/NNW at 10mph
or less. Strong thunderstorms may move very little or remain
stationary. The slow motion of the storms may result in extended
periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and
possibly flash flooding. The ground is also saturated over many areas
within the District and it may not take as much rain as normal to
produce runoff.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
rainfall rates of 0.1-0.5” in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of
0.5-1.3” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving or nearly stationary strong
thunderstorm may result in up to 2.0” of rain in 45-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
300 PM TO 900 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
300 PM TO 900 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
300 PM TO 900 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
300 PM TO 900 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
300 PM TO 900 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
300 PM TO 900 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1000 PM
300 PM TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
300 PM TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1000 PM
300 PM TO 900 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1000 PM
300 PM TO 900 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1000 PM
300 PM TO 900 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1000 PM
300 PM TO 900 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.3" (25%)
HIGH
Broomfield
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.3" (25%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
230 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.3" (25%)
HIGH
Boulder
230 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.3" (25%)
HIGH
Denver
230 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.3" (25%)
HIGH
Jefferson
230 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.3" (25%)
HIGH
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.3" (25%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.3" (25%)
HIGH
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.3" (25%)
HIGH
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.3" (25%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 908 AM Wed June 7, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
The relentless pattern of slow moving afternoon and evening
thunderstorms continues over the District today with stronger storms
capable of producing heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms will first develop
over the foothills and higher terrain of the Palmer Divide between
noon and 2pm but these initial storms will have difficulty progressing
eastward as upper level steering winds light are from S to N. This
will likely delay the onset of thunderstorm chances over the plains as
these first storms will stay over the higher terrain, but they will
likely produce a rain cooled outflow boundary that pushes eastward
from the foothills or northward from the Palmer Divide storms. These
likely outflow boundaries will be the potential trigger for new storms
on the plains initiating between 2-4pm.
Widely scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are then expected
into the late afternoon with 1-2 rounds possible. Rain showers and
possibly a weak thunderstorm will continue likely well into the
evening with dry conditions expected to develop by around midnight.
Surface dew points have decreased from yesterday, but ample moisture
remains to fuel storms and stronger thunderstorm cells will be capable
of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. Some
areas of the District are experiencing a saturated ground from rain
over the previous days and runoff may occur quickly in these areas.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4” in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of
0.4-1.0” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving or nearly stationary strong
thunderstorm may result in up to 1.8” of rain in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Daily chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will continue Thursday and Friday with widely scattered coverage.
Stronger thunderstorms will continue to have the potential to produce
heavy rainfall. Thunderstorm chances increase on Saturday as a cold
front moves through and produces “upslope” flow into Sunday.
Cooler Sunday with afternoon highs likely remaining in the 60’s.
Rain showers are a sure bet on Sunday, but thunderstorm chances will
hinge upon daytime heating and if temperatures remain too cool then
precipitation may favor rain versus thunder. Should thunderstorms
develop heavy rainfall will be possible.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Broomfield
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Denver
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1" (30%)
HIGH
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1" (30%)
HIGH
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1" (30%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1" (30%)
HIGH
Douglas
100 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1" (30%)
HIGH
Jefferson
100 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1" (30%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 810 PM Tue June 6, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM as the threat for
heavy rainfall has ended for the day.
A line of stationary/slow moving thunderstorms impacted eastern areas
of the District though the afternoon with the peak of the activity
occurring between 4-6 PM. Thunderstorm activity has since diminished,
and dry conditions have developed over the District.
No meaningful precipitation is expected for the remainder of the
evening and overnight period.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation is
expected, less than 0.1".
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 235 PM Tue June 6, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until 9:00 PM this evening.
Thunderstorms have developed over the foothills but are very slow
moving and these initial storms will likely not be the storms that
impact the I-25 corridor later this afternoon. Rain cooled air from
these initial storms in the form of a gust front/outflow boundary
pushing eastward and acting as a “trigger” will be the likely
culprit for new storm development over the plains.
Storms will be slow moving from W to E or may remain nearly stationary
and have the potential to produce heavy rainfall as surface moisture
remains abundant with dew points in the 50’s. Best chances for
thunderstorms over the plains will be from 3:30-8:30 PM. Due to all of
the rainfall yesterday the ground is saturated in some areas and it
may not take as much rain today to produce excessive runoff and
possibly flash flooding.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have
the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.2” in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm or nearly
stationary thunderstorm may result in up to 2.0” of rain in 60
minutes or less.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
the City of Aurora
1
225 PM TO 900 PM
330 PM TO 830 PM
Arapahoe County
1
225 PM TO 900 PM
330 PM TO 830 PM
DIA
1
225 PM TO 900 PM
330 PM TO 830 PM
Denver County
1
225 PM TO 900 PM
330 PM TO 830 PM
Adams County
1
225 PM TO 900 PM
330 PM TO 830 PM
Douglas County
1
225 PM TO 900 PM
330 PM TO 830 PM
Broomfield County
1
225 PM TO 900 PM
330 PM TO 830 PM
Jefferson County
1
225 PM TO 900 PM
330 PM TO 830 PM
Boulder County
1
225 PM TO 900 PM
330 PM TO 830 PM
Arvada
1
225 PM TO 900 PM
330 PM TO 830 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
225 PM TO 900 PM
330 PM TO 830 PM
Lakewood
1
225 PM TO 900 PM
330 PM TO 830 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Boulder
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Denver
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (25%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 902 AM Tue June 6, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
SUNNY THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE
THUNDERSTORMS
Once again, there is very little change to the overall pattern as
another good chance remains for widespread storms across the District
this afternoon and early evening. Dew points are currently all over
the place with anywhere from mid 40’s to mid 50’s throughout the
District and will likely hold in place through the rest of the day.
These elevated surface dew points will suggest moderate to heavy
rainfall, similar to yesterday, as storm movements once again remain
minimal. This will bring a good chance for a quick 0.4-0.8" in 10-30
minutes. Training of rain showers could also play a key component
today as multiple rounds of moderate showers could lead to rainfall in
excess of 1” per hour today.
The best chance for storms will be from 1-8pm. Storm motions will once
again be slow to nearly stationary from the S/SW higher terrain,
moving N/NE and onto the plains. Additional storms will also likley
form along outflow boundaries, leading to some erratic storm movement.
This storm motion, combined with good available moisture will result
in a MODERATE likelihood of Message 1’s being issued today. This is
also in part to an already saturated surface which will result in easy
pooling of water and quick creek/stream rises leading to localized
flooding. Storms today also have a good chance of producing some large
hail, gusty winds, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and
isolated thundestorms will produce 0.2-0.4” in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong thunderstorm could produce 0.4-0.8” in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stalled moderate to strong thunderstorm, or a
thunderstorm that anchors off an outflow boundary will have the
potential to produce up to 2.4” in under 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Much of the same tomorrow as the chance for a heavy
rainfall threat continues. A better chance for a few showers in the
morning hours Wednesday with a good chance for widespread moderate to
heavy rainfall with a slight chance for severe weather in the
afternoon and early evening. This pattern holds Thursday, bringing
another good chance of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across
the District.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.2" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
MOD
Douglas
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.2" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
MOD
Jefferson
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.2" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months