May 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 833 AM Mon May 31, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- CONTINUED UNSESEASONABLY COLD WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS - Trough of low pressure will make some eastward progress today with less overall rain as the focus shifts southward but there will still be showers and possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to run well below seasonal averages with highs in the 50's to lower 60's over the plains. Normal high for Denver today is 78 degrees. - Light rain showers can be expected this morning with an uptick in shower activity expected by late morning and continuing through the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will hinge upon daytime heating and if temperatures warm firmly into the 60's there will be a better chance for thunder. If temperatures remain on the cool side precipitation will likely favor a general rain. Thunderstorm chances appear highest S of I-70 at this time and in particular over Douglas County. If a thunderstorm does manage to develop moderate to brief heavy rainfall can be expected as abundant moisture remains in place. - Rain shower and any potential thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish by sunset or shortly after with dry conditions for the overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain in 30-60 minutes. Weak thunderstorms will have to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Temperatures warm well into the 60's resulting in moderate to strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce 0.4-1.0" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer and drier air will begin to move into the District on Tuesday. More sunshine to start the day will allow temperatures to warm into the 70's over the plains with 60's in the foothills. A weak disturbance moving in from the NW will result in isolated to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Most storms will produce light to briefly moderate rain. Heavy rainfall is not expected at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) MOD Jefferson Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Jefferson Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 11 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 1044 PM Sun May 30, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11:00 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 11:00pm as the threat for heavy rain has come to an end. - A few lingering scattered rain showers persist over the District and will continue off and on through the overnight and into Monday morning. Rain showers will typically be a drizzle to mist with a generally a trace-0.10", with the occasional pockets of light to moderate rainfall between 0.1-0.3". Best chance for additional rainfall will be from now until 2:00am with chances decreasing into daybreak Monday. - Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 40's on the plains with around 40 along the foothills. Relative humidity will remain at or close to 100% through the overnight and into daybreak Monday resulting in areas of fog/mist/drizzle through tomorrow morning. Cool and cloudy to start the day tomorrow with another good chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical light rain showers will produce a TR-0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 60- 90minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 AM MON Trace (75%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 AM MON Trace (75%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 AM MON Trace (75%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 800 AM MON Trace (75%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 800 AM MON Trace (75%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 AM MON Trace (75%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 AM MON Trace (75%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 AM MON Trace (75%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 AM MON Trace (75%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 AM MON Trace (75%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 11 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 338 PM Sun May 30, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID FOR THE DISTRICT - Message 1's will continue valid through 11pm as a widespread rain falls over the District. - Rain showers with embedded weak to briefly moderate thunderstorms impacted the District earlier with recent trends showing a decrease in thunderstorm activity and a transition to a soaking stratiform rain. A widespread and fairly steady rain is expected to continue for the next few hours before before becoming more scattered and eventually isolated as the evening progresses. Smaller creeks and streams will be running high into the evening. Cherry Creek in Denver will likely experience bike path inundation at times. - Rainfall rates from non-thunderstorm light to moderate rain showers is currently in the 0.1-0.3"/hr rate. Rainfall rates are expected to remain steady and then slowly taper off this evening. Should a thunderstorm develop it will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4"/hr. Weak thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 15-45 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 11 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 927 AM Sun May 30, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 11pm this evening. Rain showers are on the increase over the District at this time with thunderstorms possible as the day progresses. - Rain showers will become widespread with embedded thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Most thunderstorms that develop today are expected to be weak with brief heavy rainfall but a stronger storm will be capable of extended periods of heavy rainfall due to slow storm motions. - Rainfall rates from non-thunderstorm moderate to heavy rain showers will generally be in the 0.1-0.4"/hr rate but may reach up to 1.0"/hr rate under heavier showers. Creeks and streams will likely be running high later today and tonight and it may not take much rain to produce excessive runoff if the ground becomes saturated. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm becomes stationary with up to 2.4" of rain possible in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH Denver Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (30%) HIGH Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (30%) HIGH Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 11 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 857 AM Sun May 30, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- CLOUDY AND COOL WITH RAIN SHOWERS. IF THUNDERTORMS DEVELOP HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE - Cloudy and cool over the District today with temperatures struggling to make it out of the 50's over the plains. Rain showers will be on the increase through the morning and if we warm out of the 50s into the lower 60's there could be a few stronger thunderstorms that develop this afternoon with the potential for heavy rainfall. - Overall, with the cooler temperatures today precipitation is expected to favor light to moderate rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm. If a thunderstorm were to develop it would be between the hours of noon to 6pm likely favoring S areas of the District. Prime time for rain showers will be from noon to midnight. Beyond midnight additional rain showers remain likely into Monday morning but will become more isolated in nature versus scattered to widespread this afternoon/evening. - Rainfall rates from rain showers will generally be in the TR-0.20"/hr rate but may reach 0.2-0.6"/hr rate under more moderate showers. Creeks and streams will likely be running high later today and tonight and it may not take much rain to produce excessive runoff if the ground becomes saturated. Cherry Creek through Denver will be susceptible to reaching bike path level during times of heavier showers. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will generally produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 30-60 minutes. Weak thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Moderate to strong thunderstorms are able to develop with the potential to produce 0.4-1.0" of rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A lull in the shower activity is expected Monday morning with rain showers re-developing by noon. Much like today the thunderstorm threat in the afternoon will hinge upon daytime heating. Highs are projected to struggle to make out of the 50s once again and if we do warm into the 60's there will be a better chance for thunder. Conditions dry out Monday evening with warmer and drier weather in store for Tuesday. Total precipitation from today through Monday expected to range from 0.5-1.5" over the District with isolated higher and lower amounts. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1000 AM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 1000 AM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (80%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Boulder 1000 AM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (80%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Broomfield 1000 AM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Denver 1000 AM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Douglas 1000 AM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) LOW Jefferson 1000 AM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (80%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (80%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (80%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 11 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 1143 PM Sat May 29, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11:59 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 11:59pm as the threat for heavy rain has come to an end. - A few strong late night thunderstorms have moved eastward and out of the District at this time. A few linger light rain showers persist over far eastern and northern portions of the District. A slight chance for scattered off and on rain showers through the overnight and into Sunday morning with no threat for heavy rainfall expected. - Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40's to low 50's with dew points currently in the mid 50's will bring patchy fog in the morning with low-level clouds likely keeping temperatures cool during the morning with more rain showers/isolated thunderstorms possible by midday tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical light rain showers will produce a TR-0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 60-90minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 700 AM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 700 AM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 700 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 700 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 700 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 700 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 700 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 700 AM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 700 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 700 AM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 11 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 949 PM Sat May 29, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT - Message 1's will be extended through midnight as thunderstorms are ongoing over southern areas of the District at this time and will have the potential to produce heavy rain should they intensify. - Current thunderstorm activity is limited to areas S of I-70 but may spread northward. Strong thunderstorms may also contain hail as well as moderate to brief heavy rain. - Message 1's may need to be extended beyond midnight if thunderstorm activity does not diminish in a timely fashion. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 11 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 405 PM Sat May 29, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID FOR THE DISTRICT - Message 1's will continue valid for the entire District through 10pm this evening although the threat for heavy rainfall is lowering. - An initial thunderstorm over Jefferson County early this afternoon produced cloud cover over the District keeping temperatures lower than surrounding locations and has resulted in a lack of storms so far today as the air has remained rather stable. Additional daytime heating or outflow from thunderstorms to the S and N of the District may be able to initiate new thunderstorms over the coming hours that would be capable of heavy rainfall as ample surface moisture remains in place. - Around sunset the threat for thunderstorms will diminish and Messages will most likely be allowed to expire this evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a large/slower moving thunderstorm may result in up to 1.6" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 11 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1207 PM Sat May 29, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 10pm this evening. - Thunderstorms are beginning to initiate over the higher terrain to the W of the District currently. Upper level steering winds from W to E at around 20mph will push the storms eastward onto the plains as the afternoon progresses. As the storms move onto the lower elevations they will encounter a moist airmass and be capable of producing heavy rainfall. Multiple rounds (1-3) of thunderstorms are expected into the evening. - Training of thunderstorm cells or a large, slower moving thunderstorm will produce the greatest risk for extended periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Most storms will move fast enough from W to E to keep the heavy rainfall relatively brief. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a large/slower moving thunderstorm may result in up to 1.6" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Denver 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 912 AM Sat May 29, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE DISTRICT/HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE - A cold front is moving through the District this morning and will result winds turning to the E/NE with surface moisture on the increase. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front with highs in the 70's over the plains with 60's in the Front Range foothills. With increased moisture to work with today thunderstorms that develop this afternoon will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and may become severe with large hail and gusty winds being the primary threats. - Thunderstorm activity is expected to initiate between noon and 2pm. Prime time for thunderstorm coverage is from 2-10pm. 1-3 rounds of storms are expected through the evening with additional more isolated rain shower activity continuing possible overnight. Storm motions will be from W to E at around 20mph with stronger storms potentially moving more slowly. - Training of thunderstorm cells or a large, slower moving thunderstorm will produce the greatest risk for extended periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Most storms will move fast enough to keep any heavy rainfall relatively brief. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a large/slower moving thunderstorm may result in up to 1.6" of rain in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Unseasonably cool Sunday with highs struggling to make it out of the 50's over the plains. A lull in the shower activity or minimal rain shower activity Sunday morning is expected to give way to a widespread rain at times through the day. Depending upon heating thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon but if temperatures remain too cool then precipitation likely favors a wetting rain. If thunderstorms develop, heavy rainfall is possible. Additional rain showers expected to continue periodically overnight into Monday morning. Higher elevations of the District above 8k may see some late season snowfall overnight Sunday into Monday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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