May 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 903 AM Tue May 11, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING - Cloudy and cool again with some widely scattered showers this morning. High temperatures today will only reach the low 40's on the plains with mid to upper 30's in and around the foothills resulting in snow falling above 7.5k and a mix of rain and snow between 6.5-7.5k with rain below 6.5k through the afternoon and early evening before precipitation chances taper off between 7-8pm. - A lull in shower activity at this time, with rain shower chances picking up by midday. With the cool temperatures precipitation is expected to favor light to moderate non-thunderstorm rain. If a thunderstorm were to develop it would likely be early on today and with low freezing levels small hail or graupel/snow pellets would be the primary culprit. Rainfall rates this afternoon expected to be in the TR-0.2"/hr range, with 0.5"/hr peak intensities possible. - A very brief timeframe this evening where we could see a rain/mix, from roughly 6pm to 8pm with up to a trace of accumulations possible on grass. By 8pm skies will gradually start to clear with overnight lows at or just above freezing through the overnight and into Wednesday morning. Lingering moisture could produce foggy conditions for Wednesday morning's commute with skies clearing through the morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce precipitation rates of TR-0.2" per hour. Moderate to heavy non-thunderstorm rain may result in up to 0.5" per hour rainfall rate. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A weak thunderstorm is able to develop and may result in and isolated 0.2-0.6" of rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer Wednesday as high temperatures jump back into the 60's with some residual surface moisture left over could result in some scattered rain showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon. Drier conditions move in as high-pressure settles over the region into the later part of the week as high temperatures reach the low to mid 70's Thursday and Friday with dry conditions likely, although a few high-based storms cannot be completely ruled out for Friday afternoon/early evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Broomfield 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Denver 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 905 AM Mon May 10, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH LATE SEASON SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE DISTRICT - Cloudy, cool and showery this morning with a more widespread, soaking rain over the majority of the District expected to pick up between 10am and noon. Highs today will only reach the 40's over the plains with 30's in the foothills resulting in snow falling above 7.5k and a mix of rain and snow between 6.5-7.5k and generally rain below 6.5k through the afternoon. Then the snow line will lower to 5k or below tonight. - With the cool temperatures precipitation is expected to favor light to moderate non-thunderstorm rain. If a thunderstorm were to develop it would likely be early on today and with low freezing levels small hail or graupel/snow pellets would be the primary culprit. Rainfall rates this afternoon expected to be in the 0.1-0.3"/hr range, with 0.5"/hr peak intensities possible. - As the snow line lowers later this afternoon and evening there is great uncertainty as to exactly when the "changeover" from rain to snow will occur over the I-25 corridor. Elevation and intensity of precipitation will play a major role in when rain changes over to snow and total snow accumulations. Mainly snow is expected above 8k today and tonight with a changeover from rain to snow between 2-5pm at around 7k and 5-9pm down to 6k and 9pm to midnight or later down to 5k but could be earlier/later. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce precipitation rates of 0.1-0.3" per hour. Moderate to heavy non-thunderstorm rain may result in up to 0.5" per hour rainfall rate. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorms are able to develop and may result in 0.2-0.6" of rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Snow showers or a mix of rain and snow to start the day on Tuesday will slowly transition to rain over lower elevations of the District as the snow level rises through midday. Rain/snow pending elevation continues likely through the afternoon. Tuesday evening and overnight shower activity is expected to decrease with dry conditions by daybreak Wednesday. If precipitation lingers long enough Wednesday night there could be some additional snow accumulations into Wednesday morning over the plains. Over the District 0.6-1.3 inches of moisture as rain or melted snow equivalent is expected from today through Tuesday with isolated higher amounts possible. Smaller creeks and streams will be running high over the next few days. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 AM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (25%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 900 AM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (25%) NONE Boulder Current TO 900 AM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (25%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 900 AM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (25%) NONE Denver Current TO 900 AM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (25%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 AM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (25%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 AM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (25%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 AM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (25%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 AM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (25%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 AM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (25%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 945 AM Sun May 9, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE DISTRICT THROUGH TUESDAY PRODUCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW - Slow moving upper level low pressure system will be impacting the District today through Tuesday with rain/thunderstorms and eventually some snow! Cloudy and cool today with a chance for a few light rain showers this morning giving way to a wetting rain and possibly isolated thunderstorm activity in the afternoon. - Thunderstorms will depend on daytime heating and if temperatures remain too cool then precipitation will favor rain versus thunder and precipitation rates will remain on the light side. Chances for rain showers increase through noon with scattered to numerous rain showers and isolated weak thunderstorms possible through the afternoon. Best chances for wetting rain today and possibly some thunder looks to be from roughly noon to 8pm. - After 8pm there is likely going to be a lull in the precipitation into the evening before a light soaking rain sets up during the overnight and continues into the day on Monday. The snow line may lower to around 6k briefly Monday morning before changing back to rain which may result in some wet snow in/near the foothills with minor snow accumulations above 7k. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Light to moderate rain showers will produce 0.04-0.20" in 60 minutes. Heavier non-thunderstorm rain showers and weak thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.20-0.40" 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce 0.30-0.80" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Additional rain showers are likely all day Monday with temperatures expected to become cold enough for snow by 6pm down to 6-7k and between 10pm to midnight Monday down to 5k. Monday night into Tuesday morning a âwetâ snow is expected with minor snow accumulations likely into Tuesday morning below 6k and significant snow likely for the foothills. Snow early Tuesday changes back to mix/rain showers by noon with showers continuing possible through the day. Tuesday evening and overnight shower activity is expected to decrease with dry conditions by daybreak Wednesday. If precipitation lingers long enough there could be some additional snow into Wednesday morning? Between 1-2â of moisture is expected over the District from today through Tuesday as rain or melted snow equivalent. Snow could result in a "branch breaker" type event if accumulations are significant along the I-25 corridor as many trees have begun to leaf out. Creeks and streams will also be running high due to non-thunderstorm rain and there could be some runoff issues as the ground is near saturation with all of the moisture as of late. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Denver Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 420 PM Sat May 8, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IMPACT THE DISTRICT - A round of thunderstorms moved through the District earlier, mainly impacting areas E of I-25. Conditions are generally quiet over the District currently and an isolated rain shower or weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through sunset. Our attention will focus on a secondary cold front will move through this evening and could generate thunderstorm activity initially before transitioning to scattered light rain showers. - There remains a good deal of uncertainty in regards to precipitation tonight but the best chances for thunderstorm activity looks to be from 9pm tonight to 2am Sunday. The strength of the storms is anticipated to be weak to briefly moderate but the storms could be efficient rainfall producers and anchor or move very slowly as surface flow becomes "upslope" northeasterly behind the front. After 2am, additional light rain showers are likely into Sunday morning. - Updates may need to be issued this evening/overnight if conditions warrant. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of precipitation. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm or stationary weak to moderate thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.2" of rain in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A chance for widely scattered light showers Sunday morning gives way to additional showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thunderstorms, if they develop may result in a threat for flooding as the ground does not need much moisture to become saturated with the wet weather as of late. A soaking rain is then expected to set up during the evening Sunday and continue overnight into the day on Monday. Smaller creeks and streams susceptible to runoff will be running high. The snow line may lower to around 6k briefly Monday morning before rising again. Additional rain showers (or snow above 7 or 8k) are likely all day Monday continuing into the evening. Monday night into Tuesday temperatures are expected to become cold enough for accumulating snow all areas of the District into Tuesday morning. 1-2" of moisture or more is possible over the District in the form of rain or melted snow equivalent from Sunday through Tuesday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1000 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 1000 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Boulder 1000 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Broomfield 1000 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Denver 1000 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 1000 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 1000 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1000 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 1000 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 1000 PM TO 1000 AM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 949 AM Sat May 8, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER/BREEZY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT - A cold front will be moving through the District this morning lowering temperatures into the upper 60's and 70's for highs over the plains. Winds will be on the increase from the N into the 10-20mph range with gusts to 30mph or more possible. - A lot of uncertainty in regards to precipitation today/tonight... There will be good upper level lift and enough moisture to fuel a line or two of thunderstorms this afternoon, but the moisture is not very deep over the District and the freezing level will be lowering through the day which may result in stronger storms producing hail/gusty winds versus heavy rainfall? Regardless, there will be a chance for thunderstorms over the District today, starting as early as noon over the foothills. - A round or two of showers and weak to moderate thunderstorms is expected into the evening, stronger storms likely remain E of I-25. Best chances for thunderstorms will be between 1-7pm. Moderate/strong storms will have the potential to produce brief moderate/heavy rain as well as hail. A dry period is then expected ahead of a secondary cold front that moves in during the evening. Additional showers and possibly a brief period of thunderstorm activity then looks to become possible between 10pm-2am. After 2am Sunday, additional light rain showers are likely through the morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of precipitation. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.0" of rain in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A chance for widely scattered light showers Sunday morning gives way to additional showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thunderstorms if they develop may result in a threat for flooding as the ground does not need much moisture to become saturated with the wet spring so far. A soaking rain is then expected to set up during the evening Sunday and continue overnight into the day on Monday. Smaller creeks and streams susceptible to runoff will be running high. The snow line may lower to around 6k briefly Monday morning before rising again. Additional rain showers (or snow above 7 or 8k) are likely all day Monday continuing into the evening. Monday night into Tuesday temperatures are expected to become cold enough for most areas to see some snow down to 5k into Tuesday morning. 1-2" of moisture or more is possible over the District in the form of rain or melted snow equivalent from Sunday through Tuesday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 900 AM Fri May 7, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WITH ISOLATED HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS - Temperatures will warm to well above normal over the District today with highs topping out in the 80's over the plains with 70's in the foothills. Mostly sunny skies this morning will give way to a build up of clouds this afternoon and the threat for a few isolated high-based showers or weak thunderstorms. - The showers and weak thunderstorms that manage to develop today will produce little if any precipitation. The main culprit will be gusty winds of 40-50mph near high-based storms due to evaporation of precipitation from cloud base to the surface. Any precipitation is likely just a few sprinkles but a stronger storm could potentially get the ground wet. - Most areas will trend dry and any shower activity will diminish around sunset with dry conditions persisting overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. A LOOK AHEAD: A cold front will move through on Saturday during the morning with highs in the 60's to lower 70's. Behind the front there will be more moisture to work with and measurable rain is expected from the storms. Some storms may become strong/severe with hail being the primary threat and brief heavy rain possible. A round or two of thunderstorms looks likely into the evening with additional rain showers possible overnight. Dry Sunday morning with another cold front moving through during the afternoon producing rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Another long duration rain/snow event then looks to set up later Sunday night through the day on Monday and into Tuesday before drying out by Wednesday morning. 1-2" of moisture is possible Sunday night into Tuesday night with the snow line potentially lowering to 5k or below Monday night into Tuesday morning. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Broomfield 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Denver 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 835 AM Thu May 6, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL - A dry NW flow aloft will be over the District today allowing high temperatures to warm into the 70's over the plains with 60's in the Front Range foothills under sunny to mostly sunny skies. Normal high for Denver today is 67 degrees. Surface winds will be light and variable, less than 10mph most areas. Tonight conditions remain dry with lows dropping into the lower 40's plains with some 30's in the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation expected today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures peak on Friday in the lower 80's over the plains with a weak disturbance moving through during the afternoon likely producing high-based shower and thunderstorm activity. The storms that manage to develop look to produce minimal precipitation with gusty winds. Cooler Saturday behind a cold front with highs in the lower 70s. There will be more moisture to work with Saturday and measurable rain is expected and the stronger thunderstorms may become severe with hail being the primary threat. A round or two of thunderstorms looks likely into the evening with some additional rain showers possible overnight. Heavy rainfall threat Saturday appears low at this time. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 903 AM Wed May 5, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED HIGH-BASED RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON - W/NW flow aloft has kept similar conditions over the District today with high temperatures in the low 60's on the plains with 50's along the foothills. Mostly sunny skies this morning with clouds increasing in the afternoon with a chance for widely scattered high based rain/isolated thunderstorms. - Storms will initiate over the higher terrain around midday with the best chance for rain/isolated thunderstorms for the District between 12-7pm. Storm motion will be relatively fast once again between 10-15mph which will help limit point rainfall amounts. Typical storms will produce between a TR-0.10" in 10-30 minutes of rainfall with isolated higher amounts possible if a stronger storm is able to develop or a storm anchors itself for an extended period of time. - Skies will begin to clear around sunset today as any rain/isolated thunderstorm chances taper off between 6-7pm. Overnight lows will drop into the low 40's across the plains with mid to upper 30's in the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce TR-0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored moderate/strong thunderstorm may result in up to 0.8" of rain in 60-90 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure begins to build Thursday bringing high temperatures into the low to mid 70's with sunny skies and dry conditions. Warmer Friday with highs in the 80's. A very slight chance for a round of rain/isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon, although most precipitation will struggle to reach the ground resulting in a better chance for gusty winds. A change in the weather pattern this weekend with rain showers likely starting Saturday evening with a chance for rain showers through Sunday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Broomfield 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Denver 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 910 AM Tue May 4, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMER TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - A more seasonable day today with partly cloudy skies before high temperatures reach the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with temperatures around 50 degrees in the foothills this afternoon. - A disturbance moves in from the W/NW this afternoon resulting in scattered rain showers with isolated thunderstorms. Storms will initiate along the foothills around midday and move out onto the plains between 1-3pm with the best chance for storm activity through 8pm before rain shower chances taper off into the evening. Storm movement will be relatively quick, between 10-15mph helping limit point rainfall amounts. Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.20" in 10-30 minutes with isolated higher amounts possible if a stronger storm can develop, or there is training of thunderstorms over a specific area. Some small hail and gusty winds will also be possible under storms that develop. - Skies will gradually clear into the evening with overnight lows in the upper 30's to low 40's across the plains. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce TR-0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of moderate/strong thunderstorm cells may result in up to 0.8" of rain in 60-90 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: W/NW flow aloft will continue into Wednesday bringing another slight chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, with the threat for flooding remaining minimal at best. High-pressure moves in Thursday bringing much warmer temperatures in the 70's with mostly sunny skies. Even warmer Friday as highs expected to reach the low 80's with continued sunny and dry conditions. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 925 AM Mon May 3, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/MIX THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING - minor correction - A low-pressure system continues to churn over the region bringing widespread rain showers and mix/snow between 5,200-6,000ft with snow above 6,000ft at this time. As temperatures increase through the morning into the 40's lower elevations, the snow line will rise and most areas below 7,000ft will experience some rain or a mix by noon. Typical rainfall rates or melted snow equivalent is between a 0.04-0.16"/hr. - The best chance for accumulating precipitation will be until 6pm with a chance for lingering isolated rain showers after 6pm until about midnight before precipitation chances come to and end. As the evening progresses, the snow line will lower again to around 6,000ft between 8pm and midnight, although precipitation chances will be minimal at that time. After midnight skies will gradually clear with dry conditions expected into Tuesday morning. - If we get some peeks of sunshine afternoon an isolated thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out and would have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30minutes. Between 0.75-2.00" of moisture has fallen over the District over the past 24 hours with isolated higher and lower amounts. Smaller creeks and streams will be running highs today as the ground is becoming saturated and additional moisture will easily produce runoff. Flash flooding is not expected. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm this afternoon will produce TR-0.20" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.20-0.40" in 30-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A thunderstorm is able to develop this afternoon and would be capable of producing 0.20-0.60" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An active pattern will persist over the next few days resulting in a chance for afternoon and early evening thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. High-pressure returns Thursday bringing dry conditions across the region into the weekend. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 600 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 600 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 600 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 600 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 600 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 600 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 600 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 600 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 600 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 600 PM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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hpo-ims May 2021