October 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 830 AM Mon October 3, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING - The low-pressure system that has brought an active weather pattern over the region will finally start to progress eastward today which will effectively keep storm chances in for this afternoon and evening. Once again the strength of today's storms will depend on the amount of daytime heating with highs only expected in the low 70's this afternoon, which should help limit the storm potential. - Rain shower/isolated thunderstorm activity will initiate along the higher terrain by midday with the best chance for storm activity in the District between 2-8pm with a slight chance for rain showers to linger into the overnight. Storm motions will generally be from the W to E between 5-10mph, however, a few erratic moving storms cannot be completely ruled out, especially if a stronger storm is able to develop resulting in outflow boundaries that for additional slower moving storms. The largest threat today for heavy rainfall will likely be a quick 0.5" in 10-15 minutes, favoring areas along and east of the I-25 corridor at this time. - Storm intensity will diminish quickly after sunset with scattered rain showers possible through midnight, with off and on light rain showers possible through daybreak Tuesday. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40's to low 50's on the plains with around 40 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, slower moving thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.5-1.5" in 45-75 Minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This active pattern should hold for one more day as a slight chance remains for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms Tuesday. However, NW flow aloft should usher in slightly drier air which will decrease the chance for any moderate to heavy rainfall tomorrow. Conditions look to dry out completely both Wednesday and Thursday with no precipitation excepted in the District for both days. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 820 AM Sun October 2, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING - The unsettled weather pattern remains in place today bringing another chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms resulting in a LOW chance for Message 1 issuance. High temperatures will be slightly cooler today, which should effectively limit the storm intensity, with highs in the upper 60's to low 70's across the District. - A few snow showers currently along the Continental Divide, which will push eastward through the morning, turning over to rain showers as they move into warmer air along the Front Range. A few scattered light rain showers will be possible this morning with rain showers/isolated thunderstorm chances picking up into the afternoon and early evening. Due to cooler temperatures, storms strength should be limited today, however with good upper-level support still in place a few storms could strengthen along the I-25 corridor and eastward this afternoon bringing a chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall for portions of the District. - The best chance for storms today will be from 2-8pm with a slight chance for lingering rain showers this evening and into the overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40's to low 50's with skies gradually clearing into daybreak Monday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorms cells has the potential to produce 1.2" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This active weather pattern will hold through Monday, however, a decrease in available moisture, combined with even cooler high temperatures, should help limit any potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Tuesday looks to dry out completely with mostly sunny skies as high temperatures reach around 70 degrees. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 622 PM Sat October 1, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN RESCINDED/THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED - Message 1's have been rescinded early and Message 4's (All Clear) have been issued as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - Generally dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period with any additional rainfall being isolated and light, favoring the foothills and Palmer Divide. - Rain showers may develop tomorrow morning as the low pressure system responsible for the active weather over the past couple days will move very little overnight. Additional rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday but the threat for heavy rainfall is expected to be lower than previous days. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful rainfall is expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period, less than 0.1" COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 203 PM Sat October 1, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 8:00 PM this evening. - An upper level disturbance will move overhead this afternoon and evening producing rain showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall, hail and gusty winds. The first line or two of storms will likely be the strongest of the day with subsequent rounds into the evening likely favoring a general rain versus thunderstorms. - Prime time for thunderstorm activity will be from roughly 3pm through 7 or 8pm. After 7 or 8pm rain shower activity will continue into the evening but rainfall rates are anticipated to decrease becoming light to briefly moderate. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" of rain in 30-60 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a slower moving thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5" of rain in 60 minutes or less. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 838 AM Sat October 1, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS - The trough of low-pressure has stalled out resulting in little change to the overall pattern today with another good chance for a round or two of afternoon thunderstorms will last into the evening with rain showers likely persisting into the overnight once again. Due to this pattern, there will be a moderate chance for Message 1's to be issued for this afternoon. - The severity of storms today will hinge on whether or not we get sufficient daytime heating, however, with good upper-level support today, there will be a decent chance of seeing moderate to brief heavy rainfall between 2-8pm across the District with light to moderate rain showers through midnight and off and on light rain possible through daybreak Sunday. Storm motions will be from W to E between 5-10mph, with erratic storm motions possible off outflow boundaries which will also increase chances for brief heavy rainfall this afternoon. Some storms may also contain gusty winds 50+mph, hail up to 1" and frequent cloud to ground lightning. - Overnight rain showers should remain light, although, with good upper-level support through the overnight a few stronger storms can not be completely ruled out at this time, mainly through midnight. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 40's to around 50 degrees with partly to mostly cloudy skies. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.30" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An erratic, slow moving storm, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 1.6" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This pattern holds at least through tomorrow with another chance for rain showers/thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Sufficient moisture aloft and at the surface will likely keep at least a low chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall tomorrow. Will update tomorrow with another HPO if needed. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 807 PM Fri September 30, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM/ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - Now that temperatures have cooled into the 50's the threat for thunderstorms has diminished with additional rain showers continuing overnight into early Saturday morning. - Additional rain showers will be light to briefly moderate with best chances through about 2am then only isolated coverage is expected into daybreak Saturday morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm is able to develop producing rainfall rates of 0.3-0.7" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Boulder Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Denver Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Douglas Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Douglas Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

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