May 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1108 AM Mon May 17, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for Boulder, Jefferson and Douglas Counties and will be valid until 10:00pm this evening. Additional Message 1's will likely be issued for the remainder of the District in the coming hours. - Thunderstorms are just beginning to initiate over the foothills, a little earlier than expected and will become more numerous into the afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop today will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Storm motions will be slow, at 10mph or less and thunderstorms may have a tendency to anchor along the foothill/plains interface potentially producing moderate to heavy rainfall for an extended period of time. - Thunderstorms are expected to remain over the higher terrain until early to mid afternoon then become widespread into the evening. Best chances for thunderstorm activity will be until around 10:00pm with scattered showers until midnight. After midnight a drying trend is expected but there will continue to be a modest chance for light rain into Tuesday morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm becomes stationary producing an extended period of heavy rainfall with up to 2.0" in 60 minutes or less. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Boulder 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 925 AM Mon May 17, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL - Continued cloudy and cool through the first half of the day today with temperatures warming into the 60's over the plains with 50's in the foothills. All the ingredients are in place for showers and thunderstorms to develop today the only question is will temperatures warm enough for thunderstorms to become moderate to strong or will temperatures remain too cool and result in only weak thunderstorms and a bias towards non-thunderstorm rain? Just a few degrees could be the difference... - There is a chance for an isolated rain shower or sprinkle this morning with conditions trending dry into early afternoon. The cloud cover and cooler temperatures will help to push back the initiation of shower and thunderstorm activity with the first storms likely developing between 2-4pm over the foothills then spread out onto the plains between 4-6pm. Scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage is then expected to around 10pm and could linger until midnight. After midnight conditions trend drier with isolated light rain showers possible overnight into Tuesday morning. - Thunderstorms that develop today will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Storm motions will be slow, at 10mph or less and thunderstorms may have a tendency to anchor along the foothill/plains interface potentially producing moderate to heavy rainfall for an extended period of time. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm becomes stationary producing an extended period of heavy rainfall with up to 2.0" in 60 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: A chance for a few isolated light rain showers persist into daybreak Tuesday then an increase in non-thunderstorm rain showers increase through the morning with a chance for generally weak isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages in the 60's for highs over the plains. Heavy rainfall is not expected at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 400 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 400 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Denver 400 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Boulder 300 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) HIGH Broomfield 300 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Douglas 300 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) HIGH Jefferson 300 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 932 AM Sun May 16, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- CLOUDY AND COOL THIS MORNING WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - Low clouds in place over the District this morning will give way to some sunshine into early afternoon southern areas while the clouds may hang around much of the day northward. The clouds and their impact on daytime heating will have repercussions on thunderstorm strength and coverage this afternoon/evening. Highs will remain in the 60's in locations with more persistent cloud cover while southern zones may be able to reach the lower 70's. - Much like yesterday, locations that experience more sun through the first half of the day will have the better chances for stronger thunderstorms in the afternoon. This should trend to better coverage of storms over the foothills and southern portions of the District. However, outflow generated from initial storms may produce gust fronts that can trigger additional storms in the less favorable/cooler environment. If clouds dissipate quickly this morning then storm chances increase across the board. - There are enough favorable ingredients today with modest moisture in place and slower storm motions for strong thunderstorms that develop to have the potential for heavy rainfall that could lead to excessive runoff. Storm motions will generally be from W to E at 10-15mph but stronger storms may anchor or move erratically along gust fronts/outflow boundaries. Best chances for thunderstorms today will be from 1-9pm over the higher terrain and from 3-10pm over the plains. Additional light rain showers remain possible after 10pm. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored strong thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 2.0" of rain in 60 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase on Monday becoming scattered to widespread in the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances decrease Monday evening, transitioning to a soaking non-thunderstorm rain at times overnight into Tuesday morning. Additional rain shower activity is expected through the day on Tuesday with possibly an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to trend below seasonal averages. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Broomfield 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Denver 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 836 PM Sat May 15, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1s WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:00pm since the threat for heavy rainfall has come to an end. - A few lingering rain showers will be possible over the next hour favoring southeastern portions of the District. Typical rain showers will likely produce TR-0.10" of total rainfall. Partly cloudy skies through the rest of the evening and overnight with lows dropping into the upper 40's on the plains with low 40's along the foothills. Excess surface moisture, with dewpoints currently hovering around 50, will result in foggy conditions this evening and into tomorrow morning. - Tomorrow will start off cloudy and cool with another good chance for afternoon rain/thunderstorms with a slight chance of storms becoming severe. Dew points will rise back into the 50's, along with better upper level support, will bring a good chance for heavy rainfall tomorrow afternoon and evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers could produce a TR-0.10" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving rain shower could produce 0.10-0.20" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) to 0.2" (0%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) to 0.2" (0%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) to 0.2" (0%) NONE Denver Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) to 0.2" (0%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) to 0.2" (0%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) to 0.2" (0%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) to 0.2" (0%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 426 PM Sat May 15, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR REMAINDER OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the remaining areas of the District and will be valid until 9:00pm. A convergence line currently stretches from Jefferson County through the central portions of the District and is expected to act as a focus for additional thunderstorm development into this evening. - Thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and street flooding. Hail and gusty winds may also accompany the stronger thunderstorm cells. Best chances for thunderstorm activity is expected to be through sunset. - Storm motions will generally be from west to east at 15-20mph. Stronger thunderstorms may anchor briefly or have erratic storm movements at times due to outflow boundaries/gust fronts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.1-0.3" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stalled out thunderstorm along an outflow boundary may result in up to 1.6" of rain in 60 minutes or less. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 257 PM Sat May 15, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for Arapahoe and Douglas Counties and will be valid until 9:00pm this evening. Additional Message 1's may be issued for the remainder of the District later this afternoon. - Thunderstorms have developed over south/southeast areas of the District where there was more sunshine which allowed for better surface heating this morning. These storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. Strongest storms are currently in and around Aurora Reservoir and will be tracking E/NE out of the District over the next 60-90 minutes. Hail may also accompany the stronger thunderstorm cells. - Storm motions will generally be from west to east at 15-20mph. Stronger thunderstorms may anchor briefly or have erratic storm movements at times due to outflow boundaries/gust fronts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.1-0.3" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stalled out thunderstorm along an outflow boundary may result in up to 1.6" of rain in 60 minutes or less. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Boulder 400 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Broomfield 400 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Jefferson 400 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (80%) to 0.8" (40%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Douglas 400 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson 400 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Boulder Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 935 AM Sat May 15, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS... - Trough of low pressure to the west will rotate an upper level disturbance over the District later today producing mid to late afternoon thunderstorms that may persist well into the evening. Ahead of the thunderstorm activity conditions will be dry through early afternoon with temperatures being held down a bit due to cloud cover, over northern areas of the District with sunshine this morning over southern zones resulting in highs in the 60s/70s. This sunny/cloudy line will play a role in thunderstorm development later today... - Thunderstorms will first begin to initiate where there is more sunshine through the first half of the day over the foothills and Palmer Divide region between 1-3pm. These initial storms will likely produce outflow boundaries and initiate new storm development over a larger geographical area between 3-6pm. Widely scattered storm coverage is then expected through about 10pm, but could linger until around midnight, ending from west to east. - Moderate to strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief moderate to heavy rainfall and stronger thunderstorms may become severe with gusty winds and large hail being the primary threats. Storm motions will generally be from west to east at 15-20mph. Stronger thunderstorms may move against the grain and outflow boundaries may lead to erratic storm movements at times. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.1-0.3" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stalled out thunderstorm along an outflow boundary may result in up to 1.6" of rain in 60 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Thunderstorm activity will increase on Sunday with a wet and cool weather pattern setting up into early next week as the upper level low pressure system to the W continues to rotate disturbances into Colorado. Thunderstorms will become possible by around noon Sunday with stronger storms capable of producing periods of moderate and briefly heavy rainfall. Sunday evening thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish with a continued chance of rain showers overnight. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Boulder 400 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Broomfield 400 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Adams 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (65%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Denver 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Jefferson 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (65%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (65%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (65%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (65%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 934 AM Fri May 14, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS - Temperatures will warm into the low and mid 70's over the plains today with 60's in the Front Range foothills which is slightly above normal for this time of year. Normal high for Denver today is 70 degrees. - Dry conditions this morning will give way to isolated rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms will first develop over the higher terrain by around noon and then move eastward onto the plains by around 1 or 2pm. A chance for isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will persist through about sunset. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief moderate rainfall. - Showers and thunderstorms will be fast moving from WNW to ESE at 20-30mph which will keep any moderate rainfall brief. Stronger thunderstorms may contain gusty winds and hail as well as brief moderate rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.3" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm is able to develop and would have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Multiple disturbances moving through Saturday through Tuesday will result in daily showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Some storms may become strong to severe, and runoff may be an issue with stronger/slower moving storms as they will be good rain producers. A string of Message days is likely to unfold. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (85%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (85%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (85%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 849 AM Thu May 13, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM, SUNNY AND DRY TODAY - High-pressure builds over the District today resulting in more seasonable weather with mostly sunny skies along with dry conditions. - High temperatures will reach the low to mid 70's across the plains this afternoon with low to mid 60's along the foothills. Overnight temperatures will remain mild as they only dip into the 40's. - A few scattered clouds this afternoon and early evening with skies gradually clearing into the later portions of this evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today. A LOOK AHEAD: A similar start to Friday as high temperatures reach the low to mid 70's in the afternoon with a chance for widely scattered high-based rain showers/thunderstorms. Rain chances pick up into the weekend with an even better chance for rain/thunderstorms Saturday. Rain chances continue into Sunday as a disturbance moves through bringing a chance for heavy rain Sunday afternoon and early evening. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 859 AM Wed May 12, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM AND SUNNY TODAY WITH A ERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - Finally a day with some sunshine as a slow moving low-pressure system exits the region today. Temperatures on the plains this afternoon will reach the low 60's with 50's along the foothills. Some patchy fog over parts of the District this morning due to excess surface moisture which could bring a very slight chance for scattered afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms as the sun comes out today and warms the surface. - As the fog lifts, mostly sunny skies are expected through the morning with a very slight chance for some shower activity along the higher terrain around midday. NW flow aloft picks up in the afternoon bringing a chance for some rain shower/isolated thunderstorm activity across the District between 1-6pm with skies clearing into the evening. Typical rain showers, if they do develop, will produce between a TR-0.05" in 10-30 min, with an isolated 0.20" possible if a stronger cell is able to develop. Biggest threat today would be gusty winds under any showers/isolated thunderstorms that develop. - Mild and dry conditions this evening and through the overnight as low temperatures are only expected to drop into the upper 30's to around 40 for the plains with low to mid 30's for the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers or a weak thunderstorm will produce TR-0.05" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.05-0.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored moderate/strong thunderstorm may result in up to 0.5" of rain in 60-90 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer, sunny and dry Thursday with high temperatures expected to reach the low 70's across the plains with 60's along the foothills. Similar conditions to start the day Friday with highs reaching the low to mid 70's. A chance Friday afternoon and evening for high-based scattered rain/isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures hold in the 70's Saturday as rain chances increase into the Weekend. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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hpo-ims May 2021