Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 936 PM Mon June 12, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 2'S (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
Message 2’s (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) have been rescinded as
the threat for heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding has
ended for the day.
No additional thunderstorm activity is expected for the duration of
the evening and overnight period. An isolated light rain shower cannot
be ruled out overnight, but any additional rainfall accumulation is
expected to be under 0.1” through daybreak tomorrow morning.
Overall, thunderstorm activity is expected to decrease on Tuesday over
NE Colorado but there will still be afternoon thunderstorms and with
plenty of available moisture still in place a few heavy rainfall
producing thunderstorms in or near the District cannot be ruled out.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No additional meaningful rain
is expected for the duration of the evening and overnight period,
TR-0.1” or less.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 359 PM Mon June 12, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 2’S WILL CONTINUE VALID THROUGH 11:59PM.
Message 2’s will continue valid as the threat of heavy rainfall
remains at this time.
Widespread heavy, long-lasting rainfall impacted the District today
with storms moving well onto the eastern plains at this time. The
brunt of the storm action has tapered off, however, a few light
lingering showers persist over the District currently and will
continue over the next couple of hours. Another surge of
showers/thunderstorms will be possible this evening, with an abundance
of available moisture, and good upper-level support still in play,
even moderate showers will bring heavy rainfall resulting in a chance
for heavy rainfall into this evening. The best chance for additional
storm activity will be from 6-10pm this evening.
Currently temperatures are in the low to mid 50’s across the
District, which will help limit the storm strength through midnight.
After midnight, a few lingering light showers will be possible, with a
slight chance for a few isolated showers through tomorrow morning.
Overnight lows will drop to around 50 degrees on the plains with mid
40’s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the
potential to produce rainfall between a 0.1-0.4” total, in 10-30
minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms have the potential to
produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.4” to 1.0" total, in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Trainign or slow-moving thunderstorms have the
potential to produce
up to 1.8” total in 45-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
2
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Jefferson County
2
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Broomfield County
2
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Douglas County
2
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Adams County
2
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Denver County
2
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 800 PM
DIA
2
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Arapahoe County
2
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 800 PM
the City of Aurora
2
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Arvada
2
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Wheat Ridge
2
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Lakewood
2
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 800 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1159 PM MON
0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM MON
0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM MON
0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM MON
0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM MON
0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM MON
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM MON
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1" (20%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM MON
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM MON
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM MON
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 937 AM Mon June 12, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 2'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
The National Weather Service in Boulder has issued a Flood Watch for
the entire District effective from 1000 AM Today, June 12th, 2023,
until 1159 PM June 12th, 2023. The MHFD Message 2 will start prior to
the NWS Flood Watch due to the potential for storms with heavy
rainfall to enter the District before to 1000 AM.
These storms have already initiated along the higher terrain foothills
and will slowly progress eastward and onto the I-25 corridor today.
Good upper-level support and an abundance of moisture is in place and
has resulted in a good chance for widespread thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall leading to localized flooding. The best time for storms to
enter the western portions of the District will be between 1000AM and
noon with storms likely throughout the District between 800PM -
midnight. Multiple rounds of storms are likely today, leading to a
Flood Watch through the evening.
A chance some of these storms become severe, with large hail up to
1.5”, gusty winds 60+ mph throughout the District. The best chance
for severe weather will likely be during the initial round of storms,
with additional storms decreasing in intensity, however, with elevated
moisture and good dynamics, even moderate rain showers will produce
heavy rainfall well into the late evening hours.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the
potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.5” to 0.75”
total, in 10 to 30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to
produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.75” to 1.75” total, in 10
to 30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchored or slow-moving thunderstorms have the
potential to produce up to 2.50” total in 45-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
2
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Jefferson County
2
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Broomfield County
2
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Douglas County
2
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Adams County
2
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Denver County
2
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
1200 PM TO 800 PM
DIA
2
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Arapahoe County
2
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
1200 PM TO 800 PM
the City of Aurora
2
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Arvada
2
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Wheat Ridge
2
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Lakewood
2
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
1200 PM TO 800 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
0.5" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.75" (25%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
0.5" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.75" (25%)
ISSUED
Boulder
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
0.5" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.75" (25%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
0.5" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.75" (25%)
ISSUED
Denver
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
0.5" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.75" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
0.5" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.75" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
0.5" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.75" (25%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
0.5" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.75" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
0.5" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.75" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
1000 AM TO 1159 PM
0.5" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.75" (25%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 159 AM Mon June 12, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 2'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3:00 AM
Message 2’s will be allowed to expire at 3am as the threat of
heavy rainfall has come to an end.
A few lingering rain showers will be possible over the next few hours
before showers gradually clear before daybreak. Temperatures have
dropped into the low to mid 50’s on the plains and will only
decrease a few degrees before sunrise.
Similar conditions remain in place tomorrow with another good chance
for heavy rainfall along the I-25 corridor with a slight chance for
severe weather, favoring areas along and east of I-25 at this time.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce a trace to 0.1” total, in 10-30 minutes. A Moderate rain
showers will produce 0.1-0.3” total, in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A thunderstorm, or training or rain showers has
the potential to produce 0.3-0.8” total, in up to 60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Adams County
2
Current TO 300 AM
Current TO 200 AM
Douglas County
2
Current TO 300 AM
Current TO 200 AM
Broomfield County
2
Current TO 300 AM
Current TO 200 AM
Jefferson County
2
Current TO 300 AM
Current TO 200 AM
Boulder County
2
Current TO 300 AM
Current TO 200 AM
Denver County
2
Current TO 300 AM
Current TO 200 AM
DIA
2
Current TO 300 AM
Current TO 200 AM
Arapahoe County
2
Current TO 300 AM
Current TO 200 AM
the City of Aurora
2
Current TO 300 AM
Current TO 200 AM
Arvada
2
Current TO 300 AM
Current TO 200 AM
Wheat Ridge
2
Current TO 300 AM
Current TO 200 AM
Lakewood
2
Current TO 300 AM
Current TO 200 AM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 600 AM MON
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 830 PM Sun June 11, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 2'S WILL CONTINUE VALID THROUGH 3AM TOMORROW
Message 2’s will continue valid as the threat of heavy rainfall
remains at this time.
Another round of showers is currently moving through the District at
this time. After a strong round of thunderstorms for portions of the
District this afternoon, these additional showers should remain weaker
through the rest of the evening and through the overnight. However,
due to excess moisture and good upper-level support still in place, a
chance remains for some moderate to brief heavy rain. The biggest
threat at this time will be a quick 0.5” in 10 minutes, although
training of rain showers could bring extended moderate to brief heavy
rainfall at times through the overnight.
The best chance for additional rain will be from NOW through midnight
with a few lingering showers from midnight through daybreak tomorrow.
Overnight lows will drop into the low 50’s on the plains with mid to
upper 40’s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the
potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.2” to 0.5"
total, in 10 to 30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to
produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.5” to 1.2” total, in 10 to
30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Trainign or slow-moving thunderstorms have the
potential to produce
up to 2.0” total in 45-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Lakewood
2
Current TO 300 AM MONDAY
Current TO 200 AM MONDAY
Wheat Ridge
2
Current TO 300 AM MONDAY
Current TO 200 AM MONDAY
Arvada
2
Current TO 300 AM MONDAY
Current TO 200 AM MONDAY
the City of Aurora
2
Current TO 300 AM MONDAY
Current TO 200 AM MONDAY
Arapahoe County
2
Current TO 300 AM MONDAY
Current TO 200 AM MONDAY
DIA
2
Current TO 300 AM MONDAY
Current TO 200 AM MONDAY
Denver County
2
Current TO 300 AM MONDAY
Current TO 200 AM MONDAY
Adams County
2
Current TO 300 AM MONDAY
Current TO 200 AM MONDAY
Douglas County
2
Current TO 300 AM MONDAY
Current TO 200 AM MONDAY
Broomfield County
2
Current TO 300 AM MONDAY
Current TO 200 AM MONDAY
Jefferson County
2
Current TO 300 AM MONDAY
Current TO 200 AM MONDAY
Boulder County
2
Current TO 300 AM MONDAY
Current TO 200 AM MONDAY
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 300 AM MON
0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.2" (10%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 300 AM MON
0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.2" (10%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 300 AM MON
0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.2" (10%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 300 AM MON
0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.2" (10%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 300 AM MON
0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.2" (10%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 300 AM MON
0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.2" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 300 AM MON
0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.2" (10%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 300 AM MON
0.2" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 300 AM MON
0.2" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 300 AM MON
0.2" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.2" (20%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1232 PM Sun June 11, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 2'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
The National Weather Service in Boulder has issued a Flood Watch for
the entire District effective from 3:00 PM Today, June 11th, 2023,
until 3:00 AM Monday, June 12th, 2023. The MHFD Message 2 will start
prior to the NWS Flood Watch due to the potential for storms with
heavy rainfall to enter the District before to 3pm.
These storms have already initiated along the higher terrain foothills
and will slowly progress eastward and onto the I-25 corridor this
afternoon. Very week steering flow aloft, good upper-level support and
an abundance of moisture in place has resulted in a good chance for
widespread thunderstorms with heavy rainfall leading to localized
flooding. The best chance for storms to enter the western portions of
the District will be between 1-2pm with storms likely throughout the
District between 2-4pm. Multiple rounds of storms will be likely
today, leading to a Flood Watch through the evening and into the
overnight.
A chance some of these storms become severe, with large hail up to
1.5”, gusty winds 60+ mph throughout the District. The best chance
for severe weather will likely be during the initial round of storms,
with additional storms likely decreasing in intensity, however, with
elevated moisture and good dynamics, even moderate rain showers will
produce heavy rainfall well into the late evening hours.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the
potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.4” to 0.75”
total, in 10 to 30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to
produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.75” to 1.50” total, in 10
to 30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchored or slow-moving thunderstorms have the
potential to produce up to 2.50” total in 45-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
2
100 PM TO 300 AM MONDAY
200 PM TO 200 AM MONDAY
Jefferson County
2
100 PM TO 300 AM MONDAY
200 PM TO 200 AM MONDAY
Broomfield County
2
100 PM TO 300 AM MONDAY
200 PM TO 200 AM MONDAY
Douglas County
2
100 PM TO 300 AM MONDAY
200 PM TO 200 AM MONDAY
Adams County
2
100 PM TO 300 AM MONDAY
200 PM TO 200 AM MONDAY
Denver County
2
100 PM TO 300 AM MONDAY
200 PM TO 200 AM MONDAY
DIA
2
100 PM TO 300 AM MONDAY
200 PM TO 200 AM MONDAY
Arapahoe County
2
100 PM TO 300 AM MONDAY
200 PM TO 200 AM MONDAY
the City of Aurora
2
100 PM TO 300 AM MONDAY
200 PM TO 200 AM MONDAY
Arvada
2
100 PM TO 300 AM MONDAY
200 PM TO 200 AM MONDAY
Wheat Ridge
2
100 PM TO 300 AM MONDAY
200 PM TO 200 AM MONDAY
Lakewood
2
100 PM TO 300 AM MONDAY
200 PM TO 200 AM MONDAY
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
100 PM TO 300 AM MON
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 300 AM MON
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Boulder
100 PM TO 300 AM MON
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
100 PM TO 300 AM MON
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Denver
100 PM TO 300 AM MON
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Douglas
100 PM TO 300 AM MON
0.4" (95%) to 0.75" (70%) to 1.5" (40%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
100 PM TO 300 AM MON
0.4" (95%) to 0.75" (70%) to 1.5" (40%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 300 AM MON
0.4" (100%) to 0.75" (75%) to 1.5" (50%)
ISSUED
Douglas
100 PM TO 300 AM MON
0.4" (100%) to 0.75" (75%) to 1.5" (50%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
100 PM TO 300 AM MON
0.4" (100%) to 0.75" (75%) to 1.5" (50%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 927 AM Sun June 11, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ANOTHER TOUND OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
A blocking pattern is in place over the continental US, positioning
southwesterly upper-level flow across Colorado while mid-level anti
cyclonic flow continues to transport moisture into eastern Colorado.
This morning will be mostly cloudy across the District followed by
afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s and dew points in
the low 50s. Forecast soundings reveal bulk shear around 30 kt, and
PWAT values between 0.75” to 0.85”.
These conditions will support an unstable environment favoring
persistent clustered thunderstorms by the mid to late afternoon.
Storms are expected to exit the District by the late evening hours.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the
potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.4” to 0.75”
in 10 to 30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to
produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.75” to 1.50” in 10 to 30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchored or slow-moving thunderstorms have the
potential to produce 1.50” to 2.25” in 30 to 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be similar with temperatures in the upper
60s to low 70s and scattered to widespread clustered severe
thunderstorms and heavy rain across the Front Range Urban Corridor.
Looking ahead, the upper-level pattern will finally exit the region
mid-week, followed by a more seasonal pattern of isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
HIGH
Boulder
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
HIGH
Broomfield
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
HIGH
Denver
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
HIGH
Douglas
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
HIGH
Jefferson
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
HIGH
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
HIGH
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.4" (90%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 931 AM Sat June 10, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY
A blocking pattern is in place over the continental US, positioning
southerly upper-level flow across Colorado while low level moisture
east of the Continental Divide remains heightened from yesterday’s
storms.
This morning will be mostly sunny across the Front Range Urban
Corridor followed by high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s,
dew points in the mid to upper 40s, through the afternoon and evening.
Forecast soundings reveal bulk shear around 20-25 kt, and PWAT values
between 0.55” to 0.65”.
These conditions will support an unstable environment favoring weakly
organized thunderstorms by the mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms
have the potential to produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall of
0.25” to 0.50” in 10-30 minutes. Storms are expected to exit the
Front Range Urban Corridor by the mid evening hours, followed by a
cold front overnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms will
produce a TR to 0.25” in 10-30 minutes. A strong thunderstorm could
produce 0.25” to 0.50” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchored or slow-moving thunderstorms have the
potential to produce 0.50”-0.75” in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be considerably active with scattered to
widespread clustered thunderstorms across the Front Range Urban
Corridor. Strong storms are expected to develop mid-afternoon,
persisting throughout the evening and early overnight hours. Storms
will dissipate and exit the area after midnight. Looking ahead, the
upper-level pattern remains in place through early next week, with
high temperatures in the upper 60s to 70s and afternoon to evening
thunderstorms, possible locally heavy rainfall, and severe conditions.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 729 PM Fri June 9, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7:59PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 7:59 PM as the threat of
heavy rainfall has ended for the day.
Showers and thunderstorms have moved northeast out of the District.
Anvil debris has created a thin layer of sky coverage across the Front
Range Urban Corridor, which is expected to gradually clear overnight.
Temperatures overnight will drop into the low to mid 50’s for the
plains with upper 40’s to around 50 along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No additional rain showers are
expected this evening or overnight.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stray shower rolling off the foothills could
produce a trace to 0.1” in 10-30 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 800 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 800 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 800 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 800 PM
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 309 PM Fri June 9, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until 8:00 PM this evening.
Thunderstorms have developed along a boundary across the district and
are slowly moving northeast due to weak upper level steering winds at
10mph or less. The slow motion of these storms may result in extended
periods of heavy rainfall supporting excessive runoff and possibly
flash flooding.
Best chances for thunderstorms will be through 7:00PM with light rain
showers possible throughout the early evening. In addition, the ground
remains saturated across the District and may not take as much rain as
normal to produce runoff.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of
0.3-0.8” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm or nearly
stationary thunderstorm may result in up to 1.4” of rain in 45-60
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.3" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months