Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 817 PM Mon June 5, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM as the threat for
heavy rainfall has ended for the day.
Thunderstorm activity from earlier today has diminished and generally
dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and
overnight period.
Chances for thunderstorms will decrease slightly tomorrow but the
storms that do form will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall.
Storm activity will increase again on Wednesday and an active weather
pattern will continue through the end of the week with daily chances
for thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Generally dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1136 AM Mon June 5, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until 9:00pm this evening.
A few isolated, but potent showers have already developed over the
Aurora area at this time. These off and on showers and likely a few
thunderstorms will continue to pulse up and down through the afternoon
and into the evening hours. Currently low to mid 50 dew points will
result in even weak showers to produce moderate to heavy rainfall.
Combined with already saturated soils will result in easy LOW IMPACT
FLOODING with pooling water and rising creeks/stream likely into the
evening.
Storm motions will also play a large role today as very weak steering
winds aloft result in stationary storms, with pulse like behavior.
Additional storms will likely form along outflow boundaries through
the afternoon, also increasing chances for isolated heavy rainfall.
Models indicate the best rainfall along the foothills, where storms
are most likely to anchor in place; however, current conditions
indicate equal chance across the District for heavy rainfall into the
afternoon and evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce 0.1-0.5” in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5” in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving strong thunderstorm or nearly
stationary thunderstorm may result in up to 2.2” of rain in 60
minutes or less.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Adams County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 844 AM Mon June 5, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARMER TODAY WITH A MORE LATE SPRING LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE
A much more typical late spring day with partly cloudy skies this
morning with the usual afternoon and evening rain shower/isolated
thunderstorm chances. Excess moisture still at the surface, combined
with adequate daytime heating will at least keep a MOD chance for
Message 1’s to be issued this afternoon and into the evening.
Dew points are currently in the low to mid 50’s and will likely hold
throughout the day. A few showers/thunderstorms will build along the
higher terrain by midday with storms slowly moving onto the plains
this afternoon and into this evening. Fairly weak steering winds aloft
signal relatively slow storm motions from west to east, which will
also increase chances for longer lasting moderate to heavy rainfall
today, especailly for areas west of I-25, where storms will likley
anchor in place along the foothills. The best chance for impactful
rain will be between 1-8pm with lingering showers possible into the
late evening. With an already saturatued surface, it will not take
much moderate or heavy rainfall to induce LOW IMPACT FLOODING today
with pockets of standing water likley with any rainfall that does
develop across the District. Also keep and eye on any streams or
creeks rising throughout the day as good rainfall will be possible
upstream, along the foothills by midday and into the afternoon.
Overnight will gradually clear out as overnight lows expected in the
low 50’s on the plains with mid to upper 40’s along the foothills.
Skies will likely clear tomorrow morning with mostly sunny skies to
start the day Tuesday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and
isolated thundestorms will produce 0.1-0.3” in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong thunderstorm could produce 0.3-0.7” in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stalled moderate to strong thunderstorm, or a
thunderstorm that anchors off an outflow boundary will have the
potential to produce up to 2.0” in under 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Much of the same tomorrow with another good chance for
afternoon and early evening showers/thunderstorms with another MOD
chacne for heavy rainfall as increase surface moisture holds over the
region throughout the week. Wednesday rain chances pick up with
widespread rain/thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening
with localized flooding likely into the late evening hours.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.7" (15%)
MOD
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.7" (15%)
MOD
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.7" (25%)
MOD
Broomfield
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.7" (20%)
MOD
Denver
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.7" (15%)
MOD
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.7" (15%)
MOD
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.7" (25%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.7" (30%)
MOD
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.7" (30%)
MOD
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.7" (30%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1049 AM Sun June 4, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
SATURATED SOIL AND PERSISTENT NON-THUNDERSTORM RAIN IS RSEULTING IN
RISES OF SMALLER CREAKS AND STREAMS
Wave after wave of persistent non-thunderstorm rain continues to
move into the District and will do so over the next several hours.
These showers have generally been between 0.1-0.3” per hour type
storms, with some isolated areas just over 0.5” in 60 minutes.
Storm motions have been nearly due east to west, with relatively fast
storm motions, which has helped limit point rainfall amounts. However,
this persistent moderate to brief heavy rainfall across the District
has led to some minor creek and stream flooding already and will
likely increase as soil saturation levels are at their peak. Very
little moisture will be able to soak into the ground as we head into
the afternoon, which will likely lead to areas of pooling, especially
in poorly drained areas. If rainfall rates increase and approach the
1"/hr threshold or thunderstorms become more likely this afternoon,
then Message 1's may be issued.
Rainfall will continue well into the afternoon and evening with
moderate to heavy showers slowly tapering off this evening. Rainfall
chances will likely continue into the late evening hours, with a very
slight chance for scattered off and on showers through the overnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce 0.2-0.7” in 30-60 minutes. A moderate to heavy rain shower,
or thunderstorm could produce 0.7-1.3” in 30-60
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored thunderstorm, or training of moderate
to heavy showers has the potential to produce up to 2.6” in 60
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: This unusual pattern will finally start to break down
tomorrow as upper-level flow shift back to a more typical west to east
pattern. A chance will remain for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow,
however drier air from the NW should help limit the available
moisture, effectively decreasing the chances for heavy rainfall. Next
week will resume a more seasonable pattern with high temperatures back
into the 70’s along with afternoon/evening rain/isolated
thunderstorm
chances through the week.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
60-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Arapahoe
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Broomfield
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Denver
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (90%) to 0.7" (60%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (90%) to 0.7" (60%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (90%) to 0.7" (60%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 601 AM Sun June 4, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY WITH OFF AND ON MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
Once again, there is very little change to the overall pattern as
multiple rounds of rainfall are expected to move in from the east
throughout most of the day today. Dew points are currently in the low
to mid 50’s throughout the District and will likely hold in place
through the rest of the day. These elevated surface dew points will
suggest moderate to heavy rainfall possible from just general showers,
similar to yesterday morning. Training of rain showers will also play
a key component today as multiple rounds of showers could lead to
rainfall in excess of 1” per hour today.
The best chance for storms will be from now, picking up once again
through the morning, with rainfall chances possible well into the
evening. The best chance for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall
will be now through this afternoon. Like yesterday, due to the lack of
daytime heating, thunderstorm activity should remain minimal, however
a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out today.
Storm motions will once again be atypical, moving in from the east and
pushing up against the foothills. This storm motion will result in a
MODERTE chance of Message 1’s being issued today, mainly for the
threat of 1” per hour rain, however, a quick 0.5” in 10-20 minutes
cannot be completely ruled out today, especially if thunderstorms are
able to develop.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce 0.2-0.7” in 30-60 minutes. A moderate to heavy rain shower,
or thunderstorm could produce 0.7-1.3” in 30-60 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored thunderstorm, or training of moderate
to heavy showers
has the potential to produce up to 2.6” in 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: This unusual pattern will finally start to break down
tomorrow as upper-level flow shift back to a more typical west to east
pattern. A chance will remain for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow,
however drier air from the NW should help limit the available
moisture, effectively decreasing the chances for heavy rainfall. Next
week will resume a more seasonable pattern with high temperatures back
into the 70’s along with afternoon/evening rain/isolated
thunderstorm chances through the week.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
60-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Arapahoe
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Broomfield
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Denver
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (80%) to 0.7" (50%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (90%) to 0.7" (60%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (90%) to 0.7" (60%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM SUN
0.2" (90%) to 0.7" (60%) to 1.3" (30%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 610 PM Sat June 3, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN RESCINDED (MESSAGE 4'S ISSUED)
Message 1’s have been rescinded as the threat of heavy rain has
come to an end.
A very unusual weather pattern is in place resulting in atypical storm
behavior today. These rain showers have not only moved into the region
from the east/southeast, but they have also been very efficient rain
producing storms. Currently, most, if not all storm activity has
subsided in the District and will likely continue through the evening
with just isolated light shower activity expected.
Another surge of moisture is expected to return late this evening,
between 10pm-2am bringing a chance for additional rain showers. These
showers will also move into the region from the east, with training of
showers possible if they develop. With dew points still in the upper
40’s to low 50’s currently, combined with slow storm movements,
there will be at least a LOW chance for Message 1’s to be reissued
late this evening, through the overnight and into Sunday morning.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce 0.1-0.3” in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm
will produce 0.3-0.7” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce 1.4" in under 60
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Denver
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 542 PM Sat June 3, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
Message 1’s have been allowed to expire as the threat of heavy
rain has come to an end.
A very unusual weather pattern is in place resulting in atypical storm
behavior today. These rain showers have not only moved into the region
from the east, but they have also been very efficient rain producing
storms. Currently, most, if not all storm activity has subsided in the
District and will likely continue through the evening.
Another surge of moisture is expected to return late this evening,
between 10pm-2am bringing a chance for additional rain showers. These
showers will also move into the region from the east, with training of
showers possible if they develop. With dew points still in the upper
40’s to low 50’s currently, combined with slow storm movements,
there will be at least a LOW chance for Message 1’s to be reissued
late this evening, through the overnight and into Sunday morning.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce 0.1-0.3” in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm
will produce 0.3-0.7” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce 1.4" in under 60
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Douglas County
1
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Adams County
1
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Denver County
1
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
DIA
1
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Arvada
1
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Lakewood
1
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
Current TO 600 AM SUNDAY
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Denver
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 600 AM SUN
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.7" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1036 AM Sat June 3, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until 11:59pm this evening.
Off and on showers have been impacting most parts of the District this
morning and will continue before rainfall picks up into the afternoon.
Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected across the District,
not only today, but likely over the next few days as an atypical
pattern has emerged over the region. This pattern will result in storm
motions to be nearly stationary at times, with waves of moderate to
heavy rainfall resulting in a chance for over 1” of rainfall in
under 60 minutes in some areas. Storm will generally move in from the
east to west, with a good likelihood of showers both anchoring in
place and training of moderate to heavy showers.
A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out today,
most likely in the afternoon hours if there is enough daytime heating.
These shower and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue through
the evening and possibly overnight and into Sunday. Sunday’s pattern
doesn’t change with another good chance for rain showers throughout
the day and with today’s rainfall, there will be higher chances for
flooding throughout the day and into the evening hours.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate showers will
produce 0.2-0.6” of rain in 30-60 minutes. Strong showers and weak
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of
0.6-1.2” in 30-60 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong shower, training of
moderate to heavy showers or weak to moderate thunderstorm may result
in up to 2.4” of rain in under 60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1159 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
60-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.2" (40%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (40%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (40%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 830 AM Sat June 3, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
CLOUDY AND COOL WITH SHOWERS PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
Cloudy and cool currently with off and on rain showers expected
across the District this morning. Showers will likely pick up this
afternoon and into this evening with a good chance for moderate to
heavy rainfall. The best chance for impactful rainfall will be around
midday through 8pm when daytime heating is at its peak. However,
daytime temperatures today are only going to reach the low 60’s
resulting in mostly rain showers with a minimal chance for any
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Due to these cooler temperatures, the most likely threat will be
rainfall rates exceeding 1” per hour, rather than the typical,
convective, 0.5” in 10-15 minutes. IF temperatures increase today,
resulting in an isolated thunderstorm or two, the chance for a quick
0.5” in 10-15 minutes will increase significantly as an abundance of
available moisture is in the region. That being said, the District
will have very efficient rainfall producing storms over the region for
the next few days. Storm motions will also be atypical, with east to
west motions, with some storms likely stalling out for extended
periods over portions of the District.
Rain showers are expected to continue into the evening, with at least
a LOW threat of heavy rainfall throughout the overnight and into
Sunday. Overnight temperatures will not drop too low with the cloud
cover remaining in place with lows expected in the mid 50’s on the
plains with around 50 for the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce 0.2-0.6” in 30-60 minutes. A moderate to heavy rain shower,
or thunderstorm could produce 0.6-1.2” in 30-60 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored thunderstorm, or training of moderate
to heavy showers has the potential to produce up to 2.4” in 60
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: This pattern will continue over the next few days, with
widespread rain showers likely off and on Sunday morning, once again
picking up into the afternoon and evening. Due to today’s rainfall,
there will be a good chance for Messages to be issued tomorrow with
the threat for heavy rainfall continuing through Monday.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
60-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
MOD
Arapahoe
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
MOD
Boulder
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
MOD
Broomfield
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
MOD
Denver
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
MOD
Douglas
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
MOD
Jefferson
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
MOD
Douglas
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
MOD
Jefferson
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.2" (100%) to 0.6" (75%) to 1.2" (50%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 147 AM Sat June 3, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 2:00 AM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 2:00 AM as the
thunderstorms and heavier rain showers have dissipated.
Light to moderate rain showers will continue possible for the
remainder of the overnight period into daybreak Saturday morning. Rain
showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to
increase in coverage as the morning wears on Saturday “upslope”
flow will be in place along the I-25 corridor. Moisture will increase
further and thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall
that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding.
If temperatures remain too cool in the lower 60's the precipitation
may favor light to moderate rain showers versus heavy thunderstorm
rain. Either way a wet day is in store for Saturday and Message 1’s
will likely be issued by noon or before.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and possibly a
weak thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of a trace to 0.3" in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm is able to
develop and may result in rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM SUNDAY
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM SUNDAY
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM SUNDAY
Douglas County
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM SUNDAY
Adams County
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM SUNDAY
Denver County
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM SUNDAY
DIA
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM SUNDAY
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM SUNDAY
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM SUNDAY
Arvada
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM SUNDAY
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM SUNDAY
Lakewood
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM SUNDAY
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 900 AM SAT
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 900 AM SAT
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 900 AM SAT
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 900 AM SAT
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 900 AM SAT
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 900 AM SAT
Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 900 AM SAT
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 900 AM SAT
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 900 AM SAT
Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 900 AM SAT
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 6 months