August 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 834 AM Tue August 24, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT, SUNNY AND DRY - High-pressure continues to dominate over the region today leading to hot, sunny and dry conditions throughout today and this evening. - Today will likely be the warmest day of the week as highs temperatures reach the low to mid 90's on the plains with mid to upper 80's along the foothills. - Overnight will be mild with lows dropping into the upper 50's to mid 60's across the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions Wednesday as high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80's to low 90's in the afternoon. A very slight chance late Wednesday for a round of high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with no threat for heavy rainfall at this time. A stronger disturbance moves in Thursday bringing a better chance for widespread afternoon and early evening rain showers/thunderstorms with a low chance at this time for heavy rainfall. Similar conditions are expected for Friday, although with slightly cooler temperatures the threat for any heavy rainfall will decrease accordingly. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 841 AM Mon August 23, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - Above average temperatures continue over the District today as highs reach the low 90's on the plains with low to mid 80's along the foothills. Mild with mostly sunny skies this morning with a slight chance for scattered high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. - Rain showers and thunderstorms will initiate in the high country around midday with the best chance for storms in the District between 1-8pm this afternoon and early evening. Currently dew points are in the mid 40's to around 50 and will likely mix out through the day into the mid to upper 30's this afternoon. With such a wide temperature/dew point spread, the biggest threat today from any storms that develop will be gusty winds and possibly a few lightning strikes. Rainfall will likely be minimal at this time, however, if dew points do not mix out and they remain elevated, the threat for moderate to very brief heavy rainfall could increase this afternoon and early evening. - After sunset skies will gradually clear leading to mild and dry conditions through the overnight with lows dropping into the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with low 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical high-based rain showers will produce a trace to 0.10" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. An isolated thunderstorm will produce 0.1-0.3" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" of rainfall in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Conditions rapidly dry out tomorrow as high temperatures reach the low to mid 90's during the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Similar conditions Wednesday with another slight chance for scattered high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. A shift in the pattern towards the end of the week and heading into the weekend with storm chances picking up with the threat for stronger afternoon/evening storm development along with at least a low heavy rainfall both Thursday and Friday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1013 AM Sun August 22, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HEAT RETURNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS - High pressure will strengthen overhead today allowing temperatures to warm back to above normal in the upper 80's to lower 90's over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver toady is 87 degrees. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny through the day with no precipitation expected in or near the District. - Winds will be weaker than yesterday but still breezy at times through the day today from the S/SW early and W/NW later afternoon in the 5-15mph range with gusts to 20mph or more possible. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation expected today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will continue to run in the upper 80's to lower 90's for highs on Monday with a chance for isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Thunderstorm coverage will favor the foothills and Palmer Divide with storms generally producing light rainfall and gusty winds. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 919 AM Sat August 21, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SEASONABLY COOL WITH WIELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS - Temperatures will be seasonably cool over the District today with highs reaching the upper 70's to lower 80's over the plains with 60's and 70's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 87 degrees. - An upper level disturbance will move in from the SW this afternoon and produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the District into the early evening. Showers and thunderstorms will first develop over the foothills between 1-2pm, then push out onto the plains between 2-4pm with best chances through about 8 or 9pm this evening. 1-2 rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected. - Storms will be relatively fast moving from SW to NE at around 20mph and moisture levels are only modest at the surface with dew points in the 40's resulting in storms that develop today generally producing light to briefly moderate rain. A strong slower moving storm or briefly anchored strong thunderstorm on a surface wind convergence line will pose a slight risk for heavy rainfall today. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" of moderate to briefly heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large/slower moving strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.2" of rain in 60 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure will quickly build over the District on Sunday leading to dry conditions and temperatures warming into the upper 80's and lower 90's over the plains. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 832 AM Fri August 20, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM, BREEZY AND DRY TODAY - A cooler start to the day as an overnight/early morning round of rain showers/thunderstorms impacted the District. These rain showers have moved well out to the east leaving mostly sunny skies with a nice westerly breeze resulting in a slight break in hazy conditions to start the day. - Breezy to gusty winds behind the disturbance will continue throughout the day from the W/NW with gusts up to 30mph this afternoon. Unfortunately with W/NW flow, hazy skies will gradually increase throughout the day and into this evening. High temperatures today will reach the upper 70's to low 80's across the plains with low to mid 70's along the foothills. - Winds will be on the decrease through the evening as overnight lows drop into the mid to upper 50's on the plains with upper 40's to low 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: A small disturbance moves through Colorado on Saturday resulting in a slight chance for high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. At this time the threat for heavy rain is minimal at best. High-pressure returns Sunday, along with 90 degree temperatures with dry conditions expected throughout the day. Hot mild and dry for the beginning of the week with temperatures remaining in the 90's through Wednesday. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 442 AM Fri August 20, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5AM - Message 1's issued for all areas of the District except Douglas County will be allowed to expire at 5:00am as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended. - Behind the broken line of fast moving thunderstorms that moved through the District between 2-4am dry conditions have filled in and are expected to continue for the remainder of the morning. Downslope W/NW winds behind the trough axis will act to dry out the atmosphere and severely limit the chances for any additional precipitation the remainder of today. - The HPO will be issued later this morning addressing any chances for precipitation this afternoon but the trend is for dry weather and unseasonably cool temperatures. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation expected the remainder of the morning. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Adams County 1 Current TO 500 AM Current TO 445 AM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 500 AM Current TO 445 AM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 500 AM Current TO 445 AM Boulder County 1 Current TO 500 AM Current TO 445 AM Denver County 1 Current TO 500 AM Current TO 445 AM Lakewood 1 Current TO 500 AM Current TO 445 AM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 500 AM Current TO 445 AM Arvada 1 Current TO 500 AM Current TO 445 AM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 500 AM Current TO 445 AM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 500 AM Current TO 445 AM DIA 1 Current TO 500 AM Current TO 445 AM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 206 AM Fri August 20, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for Adams, Boulder, Broomfield and Jefferson Counties and will be valid until 5am. Additional Counties may be added to the Message 1's over the next 30-60mins. - Upper level low pressure system is producing a nocturnal round of showers and thunderstorms that will impact NW areas of the District into the pre-dawn hours. The showers and thunderstorms are fast moving from SSW to NNE at around 30mph but will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. - Best chances for thunderstorms will be through about 4am as a line of storms moves through N/NW areas of the District. By 5am the showers and thunderstorms are expected to have pushed to the N/NE out of the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8"of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells results in up to 1.5" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 500 AM 230 AM TO 400 AM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 500 AM 230 AM TO 400 AM Arvada 1 Current TO 500 AM 230 AM TO 400 AM Adams County 1 Current TO 500 AM 230 AM TO 400 AM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 500 AM 230 AM TO 400 AM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 500 AM 230 AM TO 400 AM Boulder County 1 Current TO 500 AM 230 AM TO 400 AM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 500 AM FRI 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 500 AM FRI 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 500 AM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 500 AM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 500 AM FRI 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Douglas Current TO 500 AM FRI 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 500 AM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 500 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (35%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 500 AM FRI 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 500 AM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 806 PM Thu August 19, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- A CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - As the disturbance continues to move through Colorado there will be a chance through the overnight for an additional round of rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. - At this time, the best chance for an additional round of rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will be between 2-6am Friday. Due to the timing, the most likely outcome will be rain showers with typically a trace to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. However, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out which could produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. Storms will be moving from west to east fairly quickly between 10-20mph which will help limit point rainfall amounts, however a slower moving storm, or possible training of rain showers/thunderstorms has the potential to produce moderate to brief heavy rainfall. - By daybreak, chances will subside for any additional rain showers throughout the rest of the day with dry conditions likely into Saturday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 1.0" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A very slight chance Saturday afternoon and early evening for some pesky high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with little to threat for heavy rainfall. Sunday will be dry and that trend will continue through the week as high-pressure returns with high temperatures expected in the mid to upper 80's for the plains with upper 70's to low 80's along the foothills. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 547 PM Thu August 19, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6PM/ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT... - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 6pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended, at least through the rest of today... Thunderstorms that moved through the District earlier today produced brief periods of heavy rainfall, hail and even spawned multiple NWS tornado warnings. - The stronger thunderstorm activity has pushed well east of the District with additional rain showers and weak thunderstorms remaining possible into the evening but heavy rainfall is no longer a threat until another upper level wave moves through overnight. After midnight tonight another round of rain showers and possibly thunderstorms associated with the strong upper level low pressure system to the NW is expected to move through sometime between 1-7am Friday morning. - An additional HPO will be issued this evening to assess the overnight heavy rainfall threat and another Message 1 period may be needed to cover the potential for heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM DIA 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1111 AM Thu August 19, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for all areas of the District except Douglas County at this time and will be valid until 6:00pm this evening. Douglas County may be added over the next hour. - Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate over the higher terrain associated with a potent upper level trough of low pressure and will begin to spread out onto the plains shortly. Fast storm motions from SSW to NNE at 30-40mph will limit point rainfall amounts from a singe storm, likely keeping any heavy rainfall under 5 minutes or less in duration for the most part. Training of thunderstorm cells will produce the greatest risk for extended periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. - Stronger thunderstorm activity today is expected to favor I-70 northward. Strong thunderstorms may also become severe with gusty winds and large hail being the primary threats. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce a 0.1-0.3". Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-20 minutes. Note* - Due to fast storm motions we are using 20-minute rain totals today in the table for the first time this season. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of moderate to strong thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.8" of heavy rainfall in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 600 PM 1200 PM TO 500 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 600 PM 1200 PM TO 500 PM DIA 1 Current TO 600 PM 1200 PM TO 500 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 600 PM 1200 PM TO 500 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 600 PM 1200 PM TO 500 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 600 PM 1200 PM TO 500 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 600 PM 1200 PM TO 500 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 600 PM 1200 PM TO 500 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 600 PM 1200 PM TO 500 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 600 PM 1200 PM TO 500 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 600 PM 1200 PM TO 500 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 20-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 600 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 600 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 600 PM THU 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (65%) to 0.6" (35%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 600 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 600 PM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 PM THU 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD Jefferson Current TO 600 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 600 PM THU 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (35%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 PM THU 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD Jefferson Current TO 600 PM THU 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (35%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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hpo-ims August 2021