August 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 130 AM Fri August 13, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 3:00am as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended. - Thunderstorm activity diminished about an hour ago with generally dry conditions expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. - Thunderstorm chances increase area wide on Friday afternoon with widely scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorm coverage with slower moving storms capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation expected for the remainder of the overnight period. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Jefferson County 1 Current TO 300 AM 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Douglas County 1 Current TO 300 AM 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Adams County 1 Current TO 300 AM 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Denver County 1 Current TO 300 AM 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY DIA 1 Current TO 300 AM 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 300 AM 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 300 AM 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Arvada 1 Current TO 300 AM 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 300 AM 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Lakewood 1 Current TO 300 AM 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1041 PM Thu August 12, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for all areas of the District EXCEPT Boulder and Broomfield Counties at this time. Boulder and Broomfield Counties may be included over the next hour. - An outflow boundary has moved into the District and is beginning to initiate thunderstorm development along the I-25 corridor S of I-70 currently. These storms are expected to become stronger and will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall this evening and overnight. - Best chances for thunderstorm activity will be along and E of the I-25 corridor where moisture is deeper with a lesser chance for strong storms further W, but conditions may evolve. Best chances for thunderstorms will be until about 2am Friday morning. Should thunderstorm activity linger through 3am, Message 1's may need to be extended. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.5" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Jefferson County 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Douglas County 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Adams County 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Denver County 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY DIA 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Arvada 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY Lakewood 1 Current TO 300 AM FRIDAY 1100 PM TO 200 AM FRIDAY County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 300 AM FRI 0.2" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 300 AM FRI 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.5" (40%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 300 AM FRI 0.2" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Broomfield Current TO 300 AM FRI 0.2" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Denver Current TO 300 AM FRI 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.5" (40%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 300 AM FRI 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.5" (40%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 300 AM FRI 0.2" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 300 AM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Douglas Current TO 300 AM FRI 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (80%) to 1.5" (40%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 300 AM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 630 PM Thu August 12, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING/HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE - Surface moisture has slowly increased through the afternoon with dew points currently in the low to mid 50's along and E of I-25. Outflow from thunderstorm activity to the SE is pushing back towards the District at this time and may trigger thunderstorm development this evening. There is a chance this boundary moves through and minimal if any development occurs but if a storm is able to develop heavy rainfall is a good bet. - With the increase in surface moisture potential rainfall amounts have also increased from this morning's HPO. Stronger thunderstorms, should they develop this evening will be capable of producing brief periods of heavy rain that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. - Best chances for thunderstorm activity will be over the plains where moisture is deeper with a lesser chance for strong storms over the foothills. Best chances for thunderstorms overall appears to be from roughly 10pm this evening until about 2am Friday morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.5" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Thunderstorm chances increase area wide on Friday with widely scattered to scattered afternoon thunderstorm coverage in the afternoon/evening with slower moving strong storms capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD Arapahoe Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD Boulder Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) to 1.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD Denver Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD Douglas Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD Jefferson Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) to 1.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 937 AM Thu August 12, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER WITH CONTINUED HAZE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - The District will experience cooler temperatures today with highs in the upper 80âs over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills as a cold front moved through this morning. The haze will continue today but gradual improvement is expected into tomorrow. - Moisture will slowly be on the increase and may result in a few isolated rain showers or weak thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. There is even a hint that some shower activity may develop over the plains around midnight tonight and linger for a few hours into Friday morning? - Foothill and Palmer Divide locations will have the better chances to experience an isolated high-based shower or weak to moderate thunderstorm today. Generally dry conditions are expected over the majority of the District forecast area until later this evening and there is uncertainty as to whether or not any showers/thunderstorms will come to fruition tonight. Best chances for isolated thunderstorm activity this afternoon over the foothills and Palmer Divide will be from 4-8pm, and over the plains from roughly 8pm this evening until 2am Friday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1". Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm may result in heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.2" in 15-45 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A bit of monsoon moisture will return to the District on Friday and increase the chances for thunderstorms area wide. Widely scattered to scattered afternoon thunderstorm coverage is expected with slower moving strong storms capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Temperatures will continue to run in the 80's for highs over the plains with an improvement in the haze likely. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 800 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Broomfield 800 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Denver 800 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 600 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Boulder 600 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas 600 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Jefferson 600 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 400 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 200 AM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 857 AM Wed August 11, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- CONTINUED HAZY, HOT AND DRY - Haze will continue to be a factor today but some improvement is expected over the coming days... Conditions will be dry under sunny to mostly sunny skies. Any shower or thunderstorm activity today is expected to remain well to the SW of the District. - Highs this afternoon will peak in the low to mid 90's over the plains and we could tie the record high at DIA. Normal high for Denver today is 88 degrees and the record high is 97 set just last year. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: On Thursday moisture will slowly be on the increase leading to a chance for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Showers and generally weak to moderate thunderstorms will favor the higher terrain and Palmer Divide. Heavy rainfall is not expected. Temperatures Thursday will back off into the upper 80's to lower 90's over the plains, mainly due to more cloud cover earlier in the day. A little cooler for Friday with temperatures remaining in the 80's for highs over the plains. There will be a much better chance for scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms over the District with some storms producing a much needed wetting rain. Heavy rainfall threat Friday appears low at this time. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 948 AM Tue August 10, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HAZE EXPECTED TO WORSEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS - A cool front made its way across the District last night, displacing some of the surface smoke and briefly improving air quality conditions this morning. Under westerly flow aloft, another smoke plume has started to spill over the Front Range and into the I-25 corridor. Hazy conditions are expected to worsen throughout today and into the evening hours. - Behind the front temperatures will be cooler than yesterday but still above seasonal averages in the lower 90's over the plains with 70's and 80's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 89 degrees. - Dry conditions are expected to prevail but an isolated high-based shower or weak thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon between 3-8pm. No meaningful precipitation expected, less than 0.10" with gusty winds and possibly a sprinkle being the most likely outcome. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation expected today or tonight, less than 0.10" from high-based showers/weak thunderstorms. A LOOK AHEAD: Another hot, dry and hazy day on Wednesday then chances for thunderstorms return to the District on Thursday/Friday and continue through the upcoming weekend. Heavy rainfall is not expected from thunderstorm activity at this time. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 915 AM Mon August 9, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER HOT, HAZY AND DRY DAY TODAY - Not much overall change to the pattern today other than a bit hotter today as highs are expected to reach the low to mid 90's on the plains this afternoon with upper 80's to around 90 degrees for the foothills. - Hazy skies will persist today with mostly sunny skies in the morning as clouds increase into the afternoon. A few rain showers/isolated thunderstorms are possible well out on the eastern plains with hazy and dry conditions expected to continue for the District throughout the day and into this evening. - Overnight will be mild as lows drop into the 60's for the plains with mid to upper 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions persist through the week as temperatures remain in the low to mid 90's with hazy and dry conditions through Thursday. A change in the weather pattern in expected Friday which could both bring some rain to the region and usher out some haze with brief SW flow aloft throughout the day. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 851 AM Sun August 8, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER HOT, HAZY AND DRY DAY TODAY - Wildfire smoke continues to push into the region from the west today resulting in continued hazy skies throughout the day and into this evening. - High-pressure starts to build over the region bringing high temperatures back into the upper 80's to low 90's on the plains with mid to upper 80's along the foothills. Mild conditions are expected today and this evening with mostly sunny skies throughout the day. - Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 60's for the plains with mid to upper 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot and dry conditions continue through the week. A little break from hazy skies possible tomorrow, however, another plume of smoke is already heading towards us from the Nevada region and will likely effect us Tuesday and Wednesday increasing hazy conditions once again. Temperatures this week will remain in the 90's on the plains for the most part with mid to upper 80's along the foothills. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 802 AM Sat August 7, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SLIGHTY COOLER, HAZY AND DRY TODAY - Cooler today as high temperatures only reach the low to mid 80's on the plains with mid to upper 70's along the foothills. - Dry conditions are expected throughout the day today and this evening. Wildfire smoke from the western states will be on the increase today leading to elevated hazy conditions for all of Colorado through the entire weekend and well into next week. - Overnight will be mild with continued hazy and dry conditions as temperatures dip into the low to mid 60's for the plains with mid to upper 50's along the foothills just before daybreak Sunday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure starts to build Sunday leading to warmer daytime highs into the 90's for the plains with mid to upper 80's for the foothills with continued hazy skies. Similar conditions into the beginning of next week with highs in the 90's with hazy skies and dry conditions Monday and Tuesday. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 825 AM Fri August 6, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT AND HAZY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVE HIGH-BASED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - Not much change in the overall pattern today will lead to continued hazy skies along with high temperatures in the low to mid 90's on the plains with upper 80's to around 90 for the foothills. - A slight chance this afternoon for scattered high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. Storms will initiate along the higher terrain around midday with the best chance for storms in the District between 2-8pm with a few lingering rain showers possible into the later evening. Dew points should mix out through the morning leading to drier surface conditions into this afternoon. this will likely result in high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with minimal rainfall expected, however, there is a very slight chance dew points remain in place leading to a better chance for stronger storms this afternoon and evening. - Through the overnight, skies will gradually clear with mild conditions into Saturday. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60's for the plains with mid to upper 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. a moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, nearly stationary storm formed along an outflow boundary has the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot and hazy conditions continue into the weekend with dry conditions expected both Saturday and Sunday. This pattern hold into next week with dry conditions expected both Monday and Tuesday along with continued hazy skies. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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hpo-ims August 2021