August 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 913 AM Thu August 19, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON - Temperatures will be cooler today behind a cold front that moved through the District this morning with highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's along the I-25 corridor. A potent upper level low pressure system for this early in the season currently resides over central UT and will lift northeastward into WY during the day rotating a round or two of showers and thunderstorms through the District. - Shower and thunderstorm activity is currently just W of the Continental Divide and will begin to move into the Front Range foothills between 10am and noon. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to emerge onto the plains between noon-1pm. The initial line of showers and thunderstorms is likely the strongest and will be the dominant weather feature for the day but there could be a weaker secondary round later afternoon and evening. Best chances for thunderstorm activity will be from noon to 6pm. - Fast storm motions from SSW to NNE at 30-40mph will severely limit point rainfall amounts from a singe storm, likely keeping any heavy rainfall under 5 minutes in duration. Training of thunderstorm cells will produce the greatest risk for extended periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. Strong thunderstorms may also become severe with gusty winds and hail being the primary threats. Stronger thunderstorm activity today is expected to favor I-70 northward and in particular areas just N of the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Fast moving rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2". Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-20 minutes. Note* - Due to fast storm motions we are using 20-minute rain totals today in the table for the first time this season (standard is 30-minute). WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of moderate to strong thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.5" of heavy rainfall in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A slight chance for a few lingering rain showers or weak thunderstorms early Friday morning with dry conditions likely well ahead of noon. Down-sloping winds off the Continental Divide will dry us out for the afternoon with temperatures below seasonal averages in the 70's and 80's over the plains. LOCATION PRIME TIME 20-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 600 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) MOD Arapahoe 100 PM TO 600 PM 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 600 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 600 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 600 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Boulder 1100 AM TO 600 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1100 AM TO 600 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (50%) MOD Douglas 1100 AM TO 600 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson 1100 AM TO 600 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1029 AM Wed August 18, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- NEAR RECORD HEAT OVER THE PLAINS WITH ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS - Itâs going to be another hot day on the plains as temperatures soar to near-record highs into the mid to upper 90âs. The normal high for Denver is 87, with a record high of 100 set in 2020. We should stay a few degrees below this record. An upper-level low will meander into the Great Basin today, positioning strong southwesterly flow over Colorado. Expect isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms later today and this evening. - Showers and thunderstorms will likely initiate in the foothills between 1pm to 3pm, descending onto the plains between 3pm to 5pm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be more numerous over the foothills and Palmer Divide region, with isolated activity over the adjacent plains. Storm motion will be from SSW to NNE at about 20 mph, mainly producing gusty winds and minimal rain later this evening. - This evening and overnight, mostly dry conditions are expected over the plains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may linger along and near higher terrain, with a small chance an isolated shower drifts east over the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms can produce 0.2" of rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Cooler temperatures after Thursday's cold front will increase moisture in the area. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will create fast-moving storms over the District. Training thunderstorms pose the greatest risk of heavy rainfall in some areas and may lead to excessive runoff. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (30%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (30%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (30%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 843 AM Tue August 17, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT AND HAZY AGAIN WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOALTED HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - Ridge of high-pressure continues to dominate over the region today keeping hazy conditions for Colorado. This high-pressure ridge will also keep high temperatures in the low to mid 90's this afternoon, 10 degrees above average for this time of year. - A weak disturbance will move through this afternoon resulting in a very slight chance for isolated high-based rain showers/thunderstorms. Biggest threat at this time will be gusty winds and a few lightning strikes as surface moisture mixes out through the morning bringing dew points into the mid to upper 30's, with a few low 40's possible in isolated areas. If dew points do not mix out entirely through the morning and into the afternoon a better chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall will remain, although unlikely at this time. - Best chance for any storm development will be between 2-8pm with skies gradually clearing after sunset. Storm motions will be from the west to east today between 10-15mph which will also help limit point rainfall amounts this afternoon and early evening. Overnight will be mild as temperatures drop into the low to mid 60's on the plains with mid to upper 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.10" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain showers/thunderstorm could produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary moderate rain showers or brief strong thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in under 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High temperatures will remain elevated through tomorrow in the upper 80's to mid 90's across the plains with low to mid 80's along the foothills. Afternoon rain chances start to increase Wednesday with a slight chance we could see some isolated heavy rainfall, mainly along the foothills and Palmer Divide at this time. The best chance for heavy rainfall this week will be on Thursday as high temperatures cool into the upper 70's to low 80's behind a cold front with widespread rain showers/thunderstorms likely throughout the afternoon and evening. A chance for rain showers/thunderstorms continues on Friday as high temperatures stay in the upper 70's to low 80's. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 820 AM Mon August 16, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT/HAZY AND DRY - Ridge of high pressure will strengthen today and produce a hot and dry day over the District. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80's to lower 90's over the plains with 70's/80's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 88 degrees. - Warming aloft will put a lid on any shower and thunderstorm development with skies remaining sunny to mostly sunny. Visibilities will be impacted by increasing smoke/haze as the wears on diminishing the air quality. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: Another dry day expected on Tuesday with temperatures tacking on 2-3 degrees. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms return to the District on Wednesday with a cold front moving through early Thursday cooling temperatures into the 70's for highs over the plains with rain showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in the afternoon and evening likely lingering overnight into Friday morning. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1014 AM Sun August 15, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS - A few passing light showers/sprinkles moved through the District earlier this morning associated with a weak upper level disturbance. Conditions will trend dry through the remainder of the morning with thunderstorms initiating over the foothills as early as noon. - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will spread out onto the plains between 1-3pm with prime time through about 8 or 9pm this evening. The storms that develop today will be relatively fast moving from NW to SE at around 20mph which will help to limit point rainfall amounts from a single storm. Typical storms today will produce brief light to moderate rain with training of thunderstorm cells producing the greatest risk for extended periods of rain. - Although the majority of the thunderstorm activity is expected to remain weak to moderate in nature a stronger storm cannot be ruled out and will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain. Moderate to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of moderate to strong thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.2" of heavy rainfall in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow, smoke from wildfires burning to our west will increase haze and reduce visibilities. Thunderstorm activity Monday afternoon is expected to be isolated and generally limited to the higher terrain with the plains on the drier side. Another day with minimal thunderstorm activity on Tuesday then chances for heavy rainfall producing thunderstorms increases on Wednesday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1026 PM Sat August 14, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AT 11:00 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire for Jefferson County, incl. Wheat Ridge, Lakewood, Arvada, Denver County, Arapahoe County, incl. Aurora & Douglas County at 11:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has come to an end. - A disturbance from the NW moved through the District earlier this evening resulting in rapid storm development for areas south of I-70. At this time, a few lingering rain showers towards the eastern portion of the District will continue to move S/SE as they continue to weaken. - Skies will gradually clear through the overnight leading to mild conditions with lows dropping into the upper 50's to low 60's for the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: weak rain showers will produce a trace to 0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower could produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A thunderstorm or slow moving rain showers has the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 844 PM Sat August 14, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISRICT - Message 1's have been issued for all areas of the District EXCEPT Boulder, Broomfield, Adams Counties and DIA at this time with storms moving south to southeast. - A strong thunderstorm has rapidly developed over SW Denver and is currently producing moderate to isolated heavy rainfall in areas around Lakewood and Englewood at this time. This storm is moving to the south around 10mph and will continue into far Western Arapahoe and Northern Douglas Counties over the next couple of hours. - Best chance for moderate to heavy rainfall will be from now until 11pm with a few lingering rain showers possible through midnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationary thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 1.6" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arvada 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.3" (10%) to 0.8" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.3" (10%) to 0.8" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.3" (10%) to 0.8" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.3" (10%) to 0.8" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 730 PM Sat August 14, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- A CHANCE FOR STORMS HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING - A disturbance from the NW is currently moving into the District at this time, which has increased the potential for storms this evening. - Dewpoint are fairly wide spread over the District with upper 30's to low 40's in southern and eastern areas. However, to the north and northwest portions of the District, increased surface moisture currently around the boulder area with dew points in the low to mid 50's suggest the potential for brief heavy rainfall as storms move through the region over the next few hours. - At this time storm motions are relatively brisk from the NW to SE between 10-20mph which will help limit point rainfall amounts. However, stronger storms could produce outflow boundaries which may trigger slower moving or stationary storms with the potential for isolated brief heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2â of rain in 10-30 minutes. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving or stationary strong thunderstorms has the potential to produce 1.2" of rainfall in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place tomorrow with chances for afternoon and early evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80's. Monday will likely dry out as high-pressure returns leading to mostly sunny skies with highs around 90 degrees. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Denver Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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Heavy Precip Outlook

by Kevin Stewart

See attached for F2P2 product content. We are currently experiencing Internet issues so delivery by normal channels is not possible. Thank you for your patience and understanding. Kevin Stewart, P.E. Flood Warning & Information Services Manager MILE HIGH FLOOD DISTRICT 2480 W. 26th Ave Suite 156-B | Denver, Colorado 80211 Office: 303-455-6277 | Direct: 303-749-5417 | www.mhfd.org<http://www.mhfd.org> Protecting People, Property, and our Environment [cid:MHFD-MainLogo-RGB-Color_dc850310-e98b-4e51-9ccb-9e6ba9e6d393.png] [cid:SocialLink_Facebook_32x32_dddf4d22-a17b-4b5e-a60e-a0d1c141aee6.png]<https://www.facebook.com/milehighflooddistrict> [cid:SocialLink_Instagram_32x32_a5cf709f-423e-42d0-9b21-63116bf8f89c.png] <https://www.instagram.com/milehighflooddistrict> [cid:SocialLink_Linkedin_32x32_b7a2051d-355d-4a7b-b923-ebe2177ea89b.png] <https://www.linkedin.com/company/udfcd> [cid:SocialLink_Twitter_32x32_a6576c8a-bc49-4df2-8e65-1ec629178a82.png] <https://www.twitter.com/mhflooddistrict>

3 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 915 AM Fri August 13, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- AMPLE MOISTURE IS AVAILAIBLE TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS... BUT WILL THEY DEVELOP? - Moisture began to increase over the District yesterday behind a cold front and continued to uptick overnight with ample surface moisture in place today to fuel thunderstorms... The main question is whether or not we will be able to tap into the moisture this afternoon and produce thunderstorm activity? As can be the case many days we seem to be missing a triggering mechanism as daytime heating alone may not be enough to generate thunderstorms and conditions could trend on the drier side. - Today is just one of those days where there is a low chance for thunderstorms to develop BUT if they do, they will be strong with heavy rainfall a good bet making for a tricky forecast. Potential triggers are more daytime heating than expected or the more likely culprit of outflow boundaries from thunderstorm activity outside the District pushing back into the District providing the needed lifting mechanism. - Thunderstorm activity will be slow to develop but by 3-4pm the first storms of the day become possible, favoring the foothills and Palmer Divide. There will then be a low chance for thunderstorms well into the evening hours. Thunderstorms that develop today will be slow moving and capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2". Moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes with strong storms having the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.5" of rain in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Saturday will feature a chance for isolated afternoon thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain with a much lower threat for heavy rainfall. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase on Sunday with strong storms capable of producing brief heavy rain. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 500 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Arapahoe 500 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Denver 500 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Boulder 400 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) MOD Broomfield 400 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Douglas 400 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) MOD Jefferson 400 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (65%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD Douglas 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (65%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD Jefferson 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (65%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 4 months

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