May 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1029 AM Tue May 31, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAIN TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SNOW FOR THE FOOTHILLS - The weather pattern will be deteriorating today as a low pressure system moves in from the NW with rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two becoming possible this afternoon with a widespread/soaking rain and even some high elevation snow overnight into Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is not anticipated but smaller creeks and streams will experience increased flows later today into the day on Wednesday as persistent showers will produce runoff. - Best chances for thunderstorm activity will be at the onset then temperatures will become too cool to support convection and a stratiform rain event will unfold this evening and overnight. Rainfall rates of 0.05-0.20" in 1 hour will be common with isolated higher rates. The snow level will start out above 9,000ft but will lower to around 8,000ft by Wednesday morning and "wet" snow cannot be ruled out down to around 7,500ft briefly. - Rain shower or snow shower activity pending elevation on Wednesday will be on the decrease Wednesday morning with the majority of the precipitation expected to have ended by noon. Additional showers and possibly an isolated weak thunderstorm is possible later Wednesday afternoon and evening but coverage will be spotty. Total moisture in the form or rain or melted snow equivalent until noon Wednesday will range from 0.4-1.2" with isolated higher and lower amounts. W and N areas of the District look to be favored for the higher end of the range. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.3" in 30-60 minutes. Weak to moderate thunderstorms this afternoon and evening if they develop will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to briefly strong thunderstorm is able to develop this afternoon with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Rain/snow pending elevation will decrease through Wednesday morning leading to a generally dry afternoon absent a very isolated rain shower or weak thunderstorm ahead of sunset. Highs Wednesday may remain in the 50's over the plains possibly touching the 60's briefly if enough sunshine breaks out. Thursday is trending generally dry with highs working their way back into the lower 70's with possibly an isolated afternoon thunderstorm over the higher terrain. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Douglas 300 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) NONE Adams 200 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Douglas 300 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 AM WED Trace (100%) to 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1003 AM Mon May 30, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN - Scattered showers moved across the District earlier this morning, producing sprinkles to 0.05" of precipitation before 9:00 AM but these weak showers have since moved eastward. Additional rain showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm later today will favor the higher terrain with the I-25 corridor trending on the drier side although an isolated rain shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out. - An upper level disturbance to the N in WY will produce a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring the west and south areas of the District as down-sloping winds will lower the chances over the plains. Temperatures will trend below seasonal averages with highs in the upper 60's to around 70 over the plains under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. - Any shower or weak thunderstorm activity that develops today is expected to end by sundown with skies clearing overnight and generally dry conditions. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Light rain showers with the occasional rumble of thunder may produce a TR-0.2" of rainfall in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An upper-level disturbance will create a cool and rainy start to the week ahead of a more typical spring pattern before the weekend. Tomorrow will be mostly to partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid 60's. A mild cool front will sweep across the plains Tuesday afternoon followed by widespread showers. Light rain with the occasional rumble of thunder is expected to persist overnight and into Wednesday. High temperatures are expected to reach the low 60's by Wednesday afternoon followed by a slight chance for thunderstorms through Wednesday evening. A warming trend begins on Thursday with clear sunny skies and high temperatures reaching the mid 70's. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1207 PM Sun May 29, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING AREAS NORTH - Upper level disturbance moving overhead today will produce multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the District into the evening. The first round of storms will act to increase surface moisture leading to better chances for brief moderate and heavy rainfall with subsequent rounds of storms later this afternoon and evening. - Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential for brief heavy rainfall. The strongest storms will most likely be hail producers with relatively low freezing levels and storms will be fast moving from SW to NE at 15-25mph helping to reduce point rainfall amounts. - 2-4 rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through into the evening with prime time for storms from noon today to 2am Monday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.1-0.3" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a slower moving strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5" of rainfall in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A decrease in overall shower and thunderstorm activity is expected on Monday but there will be a few afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms with cooler temperatures in the 60's. Thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening will turn into a soaking rainfall overnight with some snow for the Front Range foothills into Wednesday morning. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 200 AM MON 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (70%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 200 AM MON 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Boulder Current TO 200 AM MON 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 200 AM MON 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Denver Current TO 200 AM MON 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Douglas Current TO 200 AM MON 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (55%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 200 AM MON 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 200 AM MON 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Douglas Current TO 200 AM MON 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (65%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 200 AM MON 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 847 AM Sun May 29, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - An unsettled weather pattern is expected for the District over the next few days. A cold front moved through the region effectively dropping today's high temperatures back into the mid to upper 70's across the plains. A good chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms around midday, through the afternoon and evening with a slight chance for an overnight round of rain showers/isolated thunderstorms into Memorial Day. - Relatively mild conditions to start the day before rain chances pick up late this morning with the first round of showers for the District likely around midday with multiple rounds of rain showers/isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening possible. Best chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the District will be from noon through midnight. Storm motions will initially be from W to E between 10-15mph, helping limit point rainfall amounts, however as the day progresses, storm motions expected to be slower with some erratic movement possible this afternoon and evening due to storms forming along outflow boundaries. Precipitation today is expected to remain light to moderate, although slower/erratic storm movements will have the potential for moderate to brief heavy rain. - A chance for rain showers remain through the overnight as the unsettled weather pattern holds over the region. A few lightning strikes cannot be completely ruled out through the overnight, although with lows dropping into the upper 40's to low 50's only rain shower chances will be likely into daybreak Monday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stronger thunderstorms, or slow moving/anchored rain showers/thunderstorms off outflow boundaries are able to develop with the potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall of 0.4-0.9" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This weather pattern is expected to hold over the region over the next few days leading to rain showers/isolated thunderstorm chances through Wednesday. Cooler temperatures tomorrow should help limit the potential for strong storm development, however, an increase in upper-level moisture will keep the threat for rain showers high, with a low threat of moderate to brief heavy rainfall both Monday and Tuesday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Boulder 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Broomfield 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Denver 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1159 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 820 AM Sat May 28, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER HOT, BREEZY DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES - Another day with well above average high temperatures for the District as we once again flirt with 90Â°F this afternoon under partly cloudy skies. - Winds are calm currently before picking up this afternoon ahead of a changing weather pattern with gusts up to 30mph from the SW. RH values will hover around 10% this afternoon, effectively solidifying dry conditions across the District throughout the day and into the evening. - Overnight lows will dip into the the 50's on the plains with upper 40's along the foothills. Winds will calm before sunset with mild conditions expected through the overnight and into daybreak Sunday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: A shift in the weather pattern heading into Sunday as a cold front moves through resulting in much more seasonable high temperatures in the 70's. Surface moisture increases tomorrow behind the cold front bringing a good chance for scattered rain showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon with a slight chance for some isolated moderate to heavy rainfall at times. A second cold front will move through the region overnight Sunday and into Monday, dropping Monday's high temperatures down into the 60's with a continued chance for scattered rain showers/thunderstorms throughout the day with another slight chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall during the afternoon and early evening. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 833 AM Fri May 27, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - High-pressure will dominate over the region today leading to well above average temperatures as highs top out around 90Â°F this afternoon. The record for today at DIA is 93Â°F set in 2006. - A very slight chance this afternoon for a round or two of high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. Best chance for storm activity will be from 2pm through 6pm. Minimal precipitation is expected as most rainfall will struggle to reach the surface, leading to an increase chance for gusty winds this afternoon rather than any meaningful rainfall. Any thunderstorm activity will likely remain along the higher terrain in the foothills and possible along the Palmer Divide, however a strike or two cannot be completely ruled out over the District. - Skies gradually clear this evening bringing mild conditions through the overnight and into Saturday morning. Overnight lows will drop into the 50's on the plains with upper 40's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.8" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure holds through tomorrow leading to another hot day with highs expected to once again reach around 90Â°F in the afternoon. Dry conditions are expected throughout the day tomorrow. Sunday starts off mild and dry before a disturbance starts to move through the region late Sunday evening and into Memorial Day. This disturbance will bring a round of unsettled weather with scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms Monday, with a better chance for rain/thunderstorms for the region on Tuesday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 845 AM Thu May 26, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM, SUNNY AND DRY TODAY - High-pressure starts to build over the region today leading to mostly sunny skies with dry conditions expected throughout the day and evening. - High temperatures are expected to be above the seasonal mid 70's with upper 70's to low 80's across the District this afternoon. Winds today will be light from the NE between 5-10mph resulting in mild conditions. - Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40's to low 50's on the plains with low to mid 40's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Even warmer tomorrow as high-pressure continues to build bringing high temperatures close or at 90Â°F tomorrow afternoon. A very slight chance for a few scattered high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and early evening, however, most if not all precipitation will struggle to reach the surface leading to a better chance for increased breezy afternoon and early evening winds. High-pressure holds Saturday as well as high temperatures in the mid to upper 80's with dry conditions likely throughout the day. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 814 AM Wed May 25, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SUNSHINE RETURNS TO THE DISTRICT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS - The trough of low pressure responsible for the cool and unsettled weather for the past 5 days has moved eastward with warmer and drier conditions spreading over the District today under sunny to mostly sunny skies. - Temperatures will climb into the upper 60's to lower 70's over the plains with 50's and 60's in the Front Range foothills which is slightly below normal for this time of year. Normal high for Denver today is 75 degrees. - Winds will become a little breezy at times this afternoon varying from W to NW/N at 5-15mph and gusts to 20mph or more. Winds weaken this evening with dry conditions for the overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation expected today and tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will warm into the 80's over the plains on Thursday under sunny to mostly sunny skies and light winds making for pleasant outdoor conditions. Temperatures continue to climb into Friday with some areas over the plains reaching the 90 degree mark. A weak disturbance will pass overhead late Friday afternoon/evening and may generate a few isolated, high-based showers and weak thunderstorms which will produce more wind than rainfall. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 817 AM Tue May 24, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- CLOUDY/COOL AND SHOWERY OVER THE DISTRICT TODAY - Low pressure system passing to the south will result in cool and cloudy conditions over the District today with periods of rain showers. Highs this afternoon will only warm into the 50's over the plains with 40's in the Front Range foothills. Isolated light rain showers or sprinkles will be possible this morning producing minimal accumulation. - Additional rain showers and even some snow for the higher elevations is expected to develop this afternoon over the foothills with chances for more meaningful rain showers increasing over the plains between 2-4pm. Chances for showers later today will favor areas along and W of I-25 and in particular areas in and near the foothills. Prime time for shower activity over the plains is from 3 or 4pm until 10pm with conditions expected to be drying out by midnight. - The US Army Corps of Engineers will be performing the Cherry Creek flushing exercise today from 9:00 AM to 1:10 PM. Flows will be high at times along Cherry Creek through Denver into the evening. Additional rain shower activity today is not expected to produce much runoff in the Cherry Creek drainage as a whole as the more meaningful precipitation is expected to remain along and W of I-25. A Cherry Creek Trail Flood Advisory will be issued prior to the release as flows may inundate the bike path at times along Cherry Creek. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Light rain showers will produce a trace to 0.10" in 30-60 minutes. Moderate rain showers will produce 0.1-0.4" of rain in 30-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A weak to moderate thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" of moderate rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: After a cool start on Wednesday abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 60's to lower 70's over the plains during the afternoon. Completely dry conditions are expected District wide. Another warm and dry day in store for Thursday with highs reaching the 80's over the plains under sunny to mostly sunny skies. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (95%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (95%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (95%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (95%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (25%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (25%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (25%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 745 PM Mon May 23, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE LIKELY OVERNIGHT FAVORING S AND W AREAS OF THE DISTRICT - Low pressure system emerging onto the plains of SE CO will result in rain shower activity this evening and overnight favoring W and S areas of the District with lesser coverage over N and E areas. The foothills above 7,500ft will experience a mix of rain and snow or all snow above 8,000ft over Boulder, Jefferson and Douglas Counties. Any snow accumulations will be minimal N of I-70 with minor accumulations over the SW foothills. - Rain showers will be light to briefly moderate in nature with widely scattered coverage through the remainder of the evening and overnight period. Cloudy and cool into Tuesday morning with additional rain showers likely ending before 10am areas N and by noon areas S. Minimal precipitation is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening but a few rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out especially over the foothills. - US Army Corps of Engineers will be performing their annual Cherry Creek flushing exercise tomorrow which will have impacts on Cherry Creek through Denver. The exercise will begin at 9:00am and conclude at 1:15pm. Flows will continue to potentially impact Cherry Creek flowing below Chery Creek Dam well into Tuesday evening. The South Platte River is expected to easily handle increased flows from Cherry Creek. A Cherry Creek Trail Flood Advisory will be issued for Denver County tomorrow morning to account for this flushing exercise. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.20" in 30-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A weak thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Cloudy, cool and damp to start the day on Tuesday but conditions will be improving as the morning progresses. Tuesday afternoon any additional showers will favor the higher terrain to the W and S of the District generally dry conditions for the afternoon and evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 AM TUE Trace (90%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1100 AM TUE Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (30%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1000 AM TUE Trace (90%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1000 AM TUE Trace (90%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 1000 AM TUE Trace (95%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1100 AM TUE Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (30%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1100 AM TUE Trace (100%) to 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (25%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1200 PM TUE Trace (100%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1200 PM TUE Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (30%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1200 PM TUE Trace (100%) to 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (30%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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