July 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 949 AM Sun July 31, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across the District today. Highs this afternoon will reach the low to mid 90's, dewpoints in the upper 40's to low 50's. Best chances for thunderstorms today will be across the foothills between 1pm-10pm. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire across higher terrain during the early afternoon hours. Storms will move east-southeast around 10-20 mph, becoming isolated as they traverse the plains. High-based storms will produce light to briefly moderate rainfall and gusty winds. - Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak to briefly moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of a trace to 0.4". WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure ridging continues across the intermountain west, transporting monsoonal moisture into the state throughout the weekend and into next week. Temperatures remain hot this week as a heat wave builds into Colorado. Monday will be hot with a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms and highs in the low to mid 90s. The warming trend continues Tuesday with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and a chance for afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms. A cool front is expected to sweep across the plain Wednesday, bringing temperatures down to the mid 80s followed by a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 944 AM Sat July 30, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT CONDITIONS WITH A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY - Thunderstorm activity is expected to be relatively light and isolated today. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80's to low 90's, dewpoints in the mid 40's. - Isolated afternoon thunderstorms that develop will be high-based producing mainly light rainfall and gusty winds. Best chances for thunderstorms today will be over the foothills and Palmer Divide between 2-8pm. - Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak to briefly moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of a trace to 0.2". WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure ridging continues across the intermountain west, transporting monsoonal moisture into the state throughout the weekend and into next week. Sunday will be similar with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and a slight chance for isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures return to the mid 90âs next week as a heat wave builds into Colorado. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 720 PM Fri July 29, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:00 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 8:00 PM as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - Thunderstorms blossomed over eastern areas of the District this afternoon with generally quiet conditions along the I-25 corridor westward to the base of the foothills. The boundary that produced storms has made it into the foothills and no subsequent storms have developed allowing Messages to expire. - Now that temperatures are cooling the threat for thunderstorms has greatly diminished with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected greater than a trace. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Adams County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Denver County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM DIA 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Arvada 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 122 PM Fri July 29, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 800pm this evening. - We are expecting one or two rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon, initiating across higher terrain during the early afternoon, moving across lower elevations mid to late afternoon. Prime time is between 3pm and 7pm, with a small chance an isolated storm or two is kicked up via outflow boundary from storms east of the District after 7pm. - Storm motions will be slower today; ESE at 10-15 mph. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain. Briefly anchored or slower moving storms may create runoff or localized flooding. Due to recent rains, the ground is saturated in some areas, creating conditions for more rapid runoff across the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.3-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.0-2.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored thunderstorm or a slower moving large thunderstorm may result in rainfall rates up to 3.0" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Arvada 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM DIA 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Denver County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Adams County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 100 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.8" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.8" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 946 AM Fri July 29, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES - A saturated column is in place over the District this morning with surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees expected today. In addition to abundant moisture, a Denver Cyclone and accompanying surface boundary at the DCVZ have been steadily developing throughout the morning. Storm motions will be slower today; ESE at 10-15 mph. These conditions favor thunderstorms capable of producing up to 1.0"-2.0" of heavy rain fall in 10-30 minutes. Hail is also possible. - Like yesterday, cloud cover may prevent radiational warming, inhibiting storm development across the lower elevations. However, current observations show the stratus deck across the District is already starting to erode. Convective temperature is around 85 degrees today, which should be reached if clouds continue to dissipate. - Storms will initiate across higher terrain between noon and 2PM, moving into the District by 3PM. Outflow boundaries will trigger clusters of storms that will slowly propagate east and anchor to the convergence boundary on the eastern side of the District. Prime time is between 3pm and 7pm, with a small chance an isolated shower or two is kicked up via outflow boundary from storms on the convergence line after 7pm. Storm activity is not expected overnight or tomorrow morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.3-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.0-2.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored thunderstorm or a slower moving large thunderstorm may result in rainfall rates up to 3.0" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure ridging continues across the intermountain west, transporting monsoonal moisture into the state through the weekend. Conditions across the state will begin drying tomorrow. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be isolated and relatively light. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Sunday will be similar with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and a slight chance for isolated afternoon thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%) MOD Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%) MOD Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%) MOD Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 351 PM Thu July 28, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S & 2'S WILL CONTINUE VALID UNTIL 10:00 PM - Message 2's for Boulder, Broomfield and Jefferson Counties will continue valid until 10:00pm. Message 1's for the remainder of the District will also continue valid until 10:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall remains. - Initial storm development has held off as sufficient cloud cover helped limit daytime heating today. Models are still indicating a decent chance for a round or two of rain showers this evening. The best chance for storms looks to be from 5pm, through 8pm with scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms possible between 8-11pm before rainfall chances taper off through the overnight. - Storms that do develop will be efficient rainfall producers very capable of producing heavy downpours that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Storms will be relatively slow moving from NW to SE between 10-15mph, with a chance some storms may anchor in place leading to an increase chance for isolated long lasting moderate to heavy rainfall, especially along the foothills this evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.3-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 1.0-2.0 in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored thunderstorm or training of moderate to strong thunderstorms may result in rainfall rates up to 3.0" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Wheat Ridge 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Lakewood 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arvada 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Boulder County 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (75%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (75%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.3" (75%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1054 AM Thu July 28, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT WITH MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER - Message 2's (NWS Flash Flood/Flood Watch) have been issued for Boulder, Broomfield and Jefferson Counties valid 11:00 AM until 10:00 PM. Message 1's have been issued for the remainder of the District to coincide with Message 2's effective 11:00 AM until 10:00 PM this evening. - Cooler and cloudy today after another overnight heavy rainfall threat. An excess of available moisture at the surface and upper-levels combined with a disturbance that will move through this afternoon has brought an increased threat for widespread heavy rainfall. Rain showers and thunderstorms will fist develop along the higher terrain between now till noon with storms likely moving into the District between noon and 1pm. Prime time for moderate to strong thunderstorms will be until 9 or 10pm before skies gradually clear into the overnight with minimal rainfall expected past midnight tonight. - Thunderstorms will be efficient rainfall producers very capable of producing heavy downpours that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Storms will be relatively slow moving from W to E between 5-10mph, with a chance some storms may anchor in place leading to an increase chance for isolated long lasting moderate to heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.3-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 1.0-2.0 in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored thunderstorm or training of moderate to strong thunderstorms may result in rainfall rates up to 3.0" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Douglas County 1 1100 AM TO 1000 PM 1100 AM TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 2 1100 AM TO 1000 PM 1100 AM TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 2 1100 AM TO 1000 PM 1100 AM TO 1000 PM Boulder County 2 1100 AM TO 1000 PM 1100 AM TO 1000 PM Lakewood 2 1100 AM TO 1000 PM 1100 AM TO 1000 PM Wheat Ridge 2 1100 AM TO 1000 PM 1100 AM TO 1000 PM Arvada 2 1100 AM TO 1000 PM 1100 AM TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 1100 AM TO 1000 PM 1100 AM TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 1100 AM TO 1000 PM 1100 AM TO 1000 PM DIA 1 1100 AM TO 1000 PM 1100 AM TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 1100 AM TO 1000 PM 1100 AM TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 1100 AM TO 1000 PM 1100 AM TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Boulder 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Denver 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (95%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Douglas 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (95%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (95%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 844 AM Thu July 28, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS/EXCESSIVE RUNOFF LIKELY - Another overnight round of heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms impacted the District with a few linger light rain showers currently. These light rain showers will continue to taper off through the morning with cloudy to partly cloudy skies likely throughout the day leading to high temperatures to only reach the 70's this afternoon. - The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Boulder County from 11am today until 10pm this evening above 6,000ft. This Flash Flood Watch will result in Message 2's being issued for Boulder County from 11am to 10pm to sync with the NWS. Message 1's will be issued for all Counties effective at 11am until 10pm to coincide with the Message 2's as the threat for heavy rainfall will include the entire District at this time. - Thunderstorms will first initiate over the mountains and foothills W of the District between 10am and noon. Upper-level steering winds from W to E at 5-10mph will slowly push the storms eastward onto the plains between noon and 1 or 2pm. Prime time for wetting rain showers and moderate to strong thunderstorms will be from 1pm to 10pm. Multiple rounds (2-3) of storms are possible through the afternoon into the early evening. Moderate to strong thunderstorms that develop today will be efficient rainfall producers as moisture levels are very high for Colorado standards. Even moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will be very capable of producing heavy downpours that may lead to excessive runoff and flash flooding. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.3-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.0-2.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored thunderstorm or a slower moving large thunderstorm may result in rainfall rates up to 3.0" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Not much change in the overall pattern heading into Friday. Low-level moisture will still be abundant and with slightly warmer temperatures the threat for heavy rainfall will likely continue at least for Friday and possible into Saturday before drier air finally moves in this weekend. However, a chance will remain Saturday afternoon and evening for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Broomfield 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Denver 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (95%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) HIGH Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (95%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (95%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 349 AM Thu July 28, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4:00 AM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire for all Counties at 4:00 AM as the threat for heavy rainfall has lowered for the remainder of the overnight period. Thunderstorms to the N of the District diminished upon approach leaving some lighter rain showers in their wake. - Strong thunderstorms developed over the District hours ago producing heavy rainfall and hail resulting in excessive runoff roadways and isolated areas of flash flooding. The thunderstorm activity has long since diminished. - There will be a few light rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm that into early Thursday morning but heavy rainfall is no longer anticipated. Another active thunderstorm day is expected later today and with all of the rain yesterday it may not take as much rain this afternoon to produce excessive runoff as the ground has become saturated in some areas. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Additional rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm overnight will produce a trace to 0.3" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate thunderstorm is able to develop in a cooling airmass with the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" of rain in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 400 AM Arvada 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 400 AM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 400 AM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 400 AM DIA 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 400 AM Denver County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 400 AM Adams County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 400 AM Douglas County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 400 AM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 400 AM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 400 AM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 400 AM Lakewood 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 400 AM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 155 AM Thu July 28, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4:00 AM - Message 1's have been extended until 4:00 AM as additional thunderstorms lurk N of the District and may impact areas of the District into the pre-dawn hours. These weak to moderate thunderstorms may not translate southward into the District and weaken on approach but the threat remains. - The strength of the storms should they survive into the District will likely be more weak to moderate but even moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall as the atmosphere is loaded with moisture. The threat for heavy rainfall is lower than earlier this evening but cannot be ruled out. - Showers and thunderstorms will move from N to S to NW to SE at around 20mph. Storm motions have increased from earlier this evening and faster storm motions will help to limit point rainfall amounts from a single storm keeping any heavy rainfall brief. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm will be capable of producing rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Douglas County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Adams County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Denver County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM DIA 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Arvada 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Lakewood 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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hpo-ims July 2022