June 2023 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 543 PM Fri June 30, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6PM Message 1’s will expire at 6pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. Showers and thunderstorms have moved south and eastward and out of the District at this time. Sunny to partly sunny skies currently with temperatures in the low to mid 60’s. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms persist to the north and northwest and could impact the District later this evening. The best chance for additional storm development between 7-9pm with a few lighter showers possibly lingering though 10pm. Upper-level winds will shift westerly to northwesterly through the rest of the evening which should keep down sloping winds, keeping a minimal chance for additional shower activity. Low to mid 50’s dew points at the surface will likely keep at least a LOW threat for Message 1’s to be reissued this evening, however the threat for that should be minimal at this time. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce trace-0.20” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.20-0.60” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 1.2” in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM DIA 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 114 PM Fri June 30, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL CONTINUE VALID UNTIL 6 PM Message 1’s will continue to be valid until 6pm as the threat of heavy rainfall remains over the District. An early morning round of showers/thunderstorms moved over the District and has continued eastward at this time. Another round of showers/thunderstorms is moving in from the W/NW and will likely impact the District over the next several hours. Cooler temperatures behind the line of storms this morning could help limit the strength of storms into the afternoon. Although with some elevated spots of higher dew points, combined with the approaching upper-level disturbance, the threat of heavy rainfall will remain into the early evening hours. A slight chance storms linger past 6pm, however, drier air will start to push into the region this evening which could help limit rainfall potential into the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce 0.20-0.40” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to heavy thunderstorm could produce 0.40-1.20” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 2.00” in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM DIA 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 934 AM Fri June 30, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 6pm. Storms have initiated early this morning, with another stronger round expected this late this morning and into the afternoon hours. Storms this morning could possibly produce some brief moderate to heavy rain with the largest threat being a quick 0.5” in 10-15 minutes. Typical storm movements will be from W/NW to E/SE between 10-20mph which should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, with low to mid 50 dew points, a stalled out storm formed along an outflow boundary will have the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall. The best chance for storm activity will be from now through the late afternoon with storms likely decreasing into the evening with skies clearing this evening. A chance for isolated heavy rain this morning, with a better chance for widespread storms along the I-25 corridor during the afternoon. Some of these storms could become severe with large hail up to 1.5”, gusty winds 60+mph, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. A weak land spout/tornado cannot be completely ruled out, favoring areas east of I-25. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce 0.25-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to heavy thunderstorm could produce 0.50-1.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 2.50” in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Adams County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM DIA 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 530 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 854 AM Fri June 30, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING REULTING IN ISOLATED AM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS Storms early this morning, with another stronger round expected this late this morning and into the afternoon hours. Storms this morning could possibly produce some brief moderate to heavy rain, especially if a storm produces an outflow boundary which has the potential to initiate additional storms. Typical storm movements will be from west to east between 10-20mph which should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, with low to mid 50 dew points, a stalled out storm formed along an outflow boundary will have the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall. The best chance for storm activity will be from now through the late afternoon/early evening with storms likely decreasing into the evening with skies clearing by midnight tonight. A chance for isolated heavy rain this morning, with a better chance for widespread storms along the I-25 corridor during the afternoon. Some of these storms could become severe with large hail up to 2”, gusty winds 60+mph, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. A weak land spout/tornado cannot be completely ruled out, favoring areas east of I-25. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce 0.25-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to heavy thunderstorm could produce 0.50-1.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 2.50” in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This severe weather pattern will shift tomorrow, resulting in a less chance for strong storms with the potential for large hail, gusty winds and an isolated tornado decreases significantly. More typical afternoon showers/thunderstorms will be possible both Saturday and Sunday. A slight chance low-level moisture remains elevated tomorrow which could bring at least a LOW chance for Message 1’s Saturday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Arapahoe Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Boulder Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Broomfield Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Denver Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Douglas Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Jefferson Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Douglas Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Jefferson Current TO 600 PM FRI 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 255 AM Fri June 30, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4AM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 4am as the threat for heavy rainfall has come to an end. A few linger showers/isolated thunderstorms are impacting eastern portions of the District at this time, but should be out of the District by 4am. Minimal to no additional shower activity is expected through daybreak, however with elevated surface moisture in place, a LOW chance for Messages to be issued through daybreak. Another good chance for storms this afternoon. The best chance currently will be between noon and 5pm with skies likely clearing into the evening. Once again some of these storms could become severe, bringing large hail, gusty winds, and possibly an isolated tornado, favoring areas east of I-25. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.20-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger cell is able to develop and will have the potential to produce up to 1” in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Arvada 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM DIA 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Denver County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Adams County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Douglas County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Boulder County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 700 AM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 700 AM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 700 AM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 700 AM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 700 AM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 700 AM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 700 AM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 700 AM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 700 AM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 700 AM FRI Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 133 AM Fri June 30, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT UNTIL 4AM Message 1’s have been reissued for Arapahoe County, including Aurora, and Douglas County effective until 4am. A moderate late evening thunderstorm moved through northern portions of the District setting off and outflow boundary into Douglas County. This has initiated strong storm development in these late hours and will likely continue for southern portions of the District through the early morning hours. Storms have already produced over 1” of rainfall near the Lone Tree area, with storms continuing to move E/NE between 10-20mph at this time. Even with these speeds, quick heavy rainfall is expected under some of these storms as they continue eastward and out of the District by daybreak. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.20-0.40" total, in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.2" total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stationary or training of slow-moving thunderstorms have the potential to produce up to 2.0” total, in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Douglas County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Adams County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Denver County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM DIA 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Arvada 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM Lakewood 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 330 AM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 400 AM FRI 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 400 AM FRI 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 400 AM FRI 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 400 AM FRI 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 400 AM FRI 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 400 AM FRI 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 400 AM FRI 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 400 AM FRI 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 400 AM FRI 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 400 AM FRI 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) to 1.2" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1137 PM Thu June 29, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1159PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 11:59 pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms continue to impact portions of the District behind a gust front from the north. Storm motions have increased to 15-25mph from the W/SW to E/NE which will limit point rainfall amounts for any additional showers/isolated thunderstorms through the overnight. A chance for off and on showers will be possible through daybreak tomorrow, however these showers will likely be hit or miss with many areas ending up dry through tomorrow morning. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 50’s on the plains with upper 40’s to around 50 along the foothills. Upper-level flow aloft shift more westerly tomorrow with breezy northerly winds with gusts up to 25mph in the afternoon. Another good chance for storms tomorrow afternoon, although the intensity of these storms will hinge on whether there is sufficient daytime heating. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers or a weak thunderstorm will produce a trace to 0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm could produce 0.25-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 0.50-1.25” total, in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1201 PM Thu June 29, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 1159pm. A few isolated storms are starting to initiate along the foothills currently and will continue to build over the next hour or two before moving into the District. Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will be possible today with a good chance for heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding through the afternoon and evening. Typical storm movements will be from W/SW to E/NE between 5-10mph. Some erratic storm movements will be possible as storms form and stall out along outflow boundaries. These storms will likely have the highest chance of producing longer lasting heavy rainfall. Storms today will have the potential to produce both a quick 0.5” in 10 minutes as well as over 1” per hour rainfall if a storm stalls out for an extended time, or training of thunderstorms cells. Storm intensities should diminish after midnight tonight. However, if the heavy rainfall threat persists past midnight, Message 1’s may need to be extended. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.25-0.50" total, in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.5-1.5" total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stationary or training of slow-moving thunderstorms have the potential to produce up to 2.4” total, in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Denver County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 100 PM TO 1159 PM Adams County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 100 PM TO 1159 PM Douglas County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 100 PM TO 1159 PM Broomfield County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 100 PM TO 1159 PM Jefferson County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 100 PM TO 1159 PM Boulder County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 100 PM TO 1159 PM DIA 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 100 PM TO 1159 PM Arapahoe County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 100 PM TO 1159 PM the City of Aurora 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 100 PM TO 1159 PM Arvada 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 100 PM TO 1159 PM Wheat Ridge 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 100 PM TO 1159 PM Lakewood 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 100 PM TO 1159 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Boulder 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Denver 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 840 AM Thu June 29, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER AND CLOUDY TO START THE DAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON & EVE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS Cooler and cloudy to start the day as a disturbance is poised to move over the District this afternoon, through the evening with a slight chance for some overnight showers/isolated thunderstorms. Currently temperatures are in the mid 60’s with highs expected in the mid to upper 70’s this afternoon. Dew points are currently elevated, in the mid 50’s and will likely remain if not increase as the day progresses. Showers and thunderstorms will likely initiate along the higher terrain by midday today. The best chance for storm activity within the District will be from 1pm through midnight, with a few lingering showers through the overnight, tapering off between 2-4am. Multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening with a good chance of isolated heavy rainfall resulting in a HIGH chance for Message 1’s to be issued. Storm motions will be the typical W/SW to E/NE motions between 5-10mph with some erratic storm movement likely off outflow boundaries. Storms may also contain large hail, strong winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and possible an isolated land spout/weak tornado, mainly for eastern portions of the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and thunderstorms will produce a 0.25-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.50-1.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm anchors off an outflow boundary, or training of thunderstorms could potentially produce up to 2.4” total in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place Friday, although upper-level shifts northwesterly, leading to slightly less chances for heavy rainfall as storms expected to increase in speed during the day and into the evening Friday. Currently at least a MODERAT threat for Heavy rainfall will be possible tomorrow. This weekend will remain active with afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorm chances both Saturday and Sunday. However, the threat of heavy rainfall will be isolated, likely keeping a LOW chance for Message 1’s to be issued. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Boulder 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Broomfield 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Denver 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1.5" (40%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.25" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1.5" (40%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 953 PM Wed June 28, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA A few high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms are rolling off the foothills and into the district. This activity is expected to exit the District by 1130PM. Most if not all precipitation will struggle to reach the surface due to drying in the low levels. Additional isolated storms are possible if storms form again across the foothills. For the remainder of the overnight, a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist through 400AM. Otherwise, overnight will be mild with temps dropping into the low to mid 50’s for the plains with mid to upper 40’s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a 0.10”-0.40" total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.40-0.70” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An outflow boundary from storms east of Denver could initiate overnight thunderstorms across the District producing moderate to heavy rainfall up to 1.50” total in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A better chance for showers/thunderstorms Thursday as a disturbance moves through the region. An uptick in overall moisture, combined with upper-level support will likely result in a chance for heavy rainfall Thursday. Similar conditions remain in place Friday, although upper-level shifts northwesterly, leading to slightly less chances for heavy rainfall as storms expected to increase in speed during the day and into the evening Friday. This weekend will remain fairly active with afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorm chances both Saturday and Sunday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1130 PM WED 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1130 PM WED 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 1130 PM WED 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1130 PM WED 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 1130 PM WED 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1130 PM WED 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1130 PM WED 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1130 PM WED 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1130 PM WED 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1130 PM WED 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.7" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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