August 2023 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 849 AM Thu August 31, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- NEAR RECORD-BREAKING HEAT THIS AFTERNOON High pressure continues to dominate over the region today bringing high temperatures into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. Today’s record high at DIA is 98 degrees, set back in 1960. Mild and dry conditions are expected throughout the day within the District. Clouds will increase along the foothills this afternoon and into this evening with clouds likely mixing out as they move onto the plains. Overnight will continue mild and dry with lows dropping into the low 60s the plains with mid 50s in and along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening within the District. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot tomorrow with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 90s. A slight chance for a few isolated showers along the foothills in the afternoon and early evening. Once again minimal, if any, rainfall expected inside the District. Another slight chance for afternoon and evening showers/isolated thunderstorms Saturday as high temperatures remain in the low 90s. Once again storms will likely produce minimal rainfall with most areas remaining dry. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 852 AM Wed August 30, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT & DRY TODAY WITH BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON High pressure continues to build today bringing high temperatures into the 90s this afternoon. Mild and dry conditions start the day today with clouds increasing into the afternoon and evening. Breezy winds are expected this afternoon and early evening with gusts up to 30mph favoring areas along the foothills. Overnight will continue mild and dry with lows dropping into the low 60s the plains with mid 50s in and along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place Thursday with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Low to mid 90s continue Friday with a slight chance for a few isolated showers in the afternoon and early evening. Minimal precipitation will be possible in the District as temperature/dew point spreads are expected to be between 40-50°F. Another slight chance for afternoon and evening showers/isolated thunderstorms Saturday as high temperatures remain in the low 90s. Once again storms will likely produce minimal rainfall with most areas remaining dry. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 2 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 846 AM Tue August 29, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM, MILD AND DRY TODAY High-pressure starts to build back into the region today from the west. This will bring high temperatures well into the 80s this afternoon under sunny skies. Mild and dry conditions remain into the evening. Overnight will continue mild and dry with lows dropping into the mid to upper 50s the plains with low to mid 50s in and along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Even warmer tomorrow with breezy afternoon winds as high temperatures reach the low 90s. Dry conditions are expected throughout the District once again throughout the day and evening. Similar conditions to start the day Thursday with a very slight chance for a few isolated showers in the afternoon and early evening along the foothills. Minimal, if any, precipitation will be possible in the District throughout the day Thursday. A better chance for afternoon and evening showers/isolated thunderstorms Friday as high temperatures remain in the mid to upper 80s. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 2 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 920 PM Mon August 28, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10pm as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. After a couple of strong storms moved on the edges of the District, a few lingering showers remained. These showers will continue to move SE over the next couple of hours before skies clear through the overnight and into Tuesday. Overnight lows will drop into mid to upper 50s. Dry conditions are expected tomorrow with high temperatures in the 80s under mostly sunny skies. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.20” total, in 10 to 30 minutes. A moderate showers/thunderstorm will produce 0.20” to 0.40” total, in 10 to 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stalled thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.40” to 0.80” in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%) to 0.4" (0%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%) to 0.4" (0%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%) to 0.4" (0%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%) to 0.4" (0%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%) to 0.4" (0%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%) to 0.4" (0%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 2 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 623 PM Mon August 28, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL CONTINUE VALID UNTIL 10:00 PM Message 1’s will continue valid until 10:00pm as the threat of heavy rainfall continues. So far, most areas in the District have remained dry as suppressed temperatures resulted in little to no storm development. Another line of showers/isolated thunderstorms is moving into the District from the NW and will move SE through the District over the next few hours. A gust front from stronger storms NE is accompanying this line and could trigger some stronger storms as they move through the District. The best chance for storms will be from now through 10pm with a few lingering isolated light showers favoring SE portions of the District. Overnight will clear out with lows dropping into the 60s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce rainfall of 0.05" to 0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong showers have the potential to produce rainfall of 0.25 to 0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationery, or training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.75” to 1.50” in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Denver County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 2 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 132 PM Mon August 28, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10:00 PM Message 1’s have been issued effective until 10pm as there is a threat of heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening. A few storms have formed along the foothills and will begin moving onto the plains over the next hour or so. A few rounds of showers/thunderstorms will be possible with the last round likely tapering off by 10pm. The largest threat for storms today will be a quick 0.5” in 10-15 minutes, with a low threat for any rainfall over an inch and hour as most storms move rather quickly between 15-25mph. These quick NW to SE storm motions should help limit point rainfall amounts, however, a stronger storm has the potential to produce a gust front resulting in additional, erratic storm development throughout the District. Skies will clear relatively fast behind the final round of showers with mild and dry conditions expected through the overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce rainfall of 0.05" to 0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong showers have the potential to produce rainfall of 0.25 to 0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationery, or training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.75” to 1.50” in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 903 AM Mon August 28, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS As the remnants of a tropical system continue to shift east into the District, showers and thunderstorms along the Front Range Urban Corridor are expected today and tonight. Isolated to scattered storm activity is expected across the District today as afternoon temperatures reach the upper 70s to low 80s, dew points in the low to mid 50s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values between 0.85” to 1.00”. Storms are expected to move southeast around 25-30 mph. Quick storm motions will help limit point rainfall amounts. Thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening, then move east overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce rainfall of TR-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Stronger storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.25” to 0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training or anchored thunderstorms have the potential to produce 0.75” to 1.25” total in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Upper-level winds will shift tomorrow, transporting much dryer and warmer conditions into the state. Tomorrow will be sunny with afternoon temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s. Thunderstorm activity will be broadly limited to complex terrain. The remainder of the week is expected to be dry and hot, with afternoon temperatures climbing into the 90s under sunny skies. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1140 PM Sun August 27, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPRIED FOR ARAPAHOE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AT 11:59 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 11:59pm for Arapahoe and Douglas Counties as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. After a strong round of showers/thunderstorms a few lingering showers continue for eastern portions of the District and will slowly taper off over the next couple of hours. Skies will gradually clear through the overnight with a few areas of patchy fog possible through daybreak tomorrow. Another good chance for storms tomorrow afternoon and into tomorrow evening with at least a moderate chance for heavy rainfall producing storms. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce rainfall of a trace to 0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong shower will have the potential to produce rainfall of 0.20" to 0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Boulder Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 2 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1054 PM Sun August 27, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 11:59 PM FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES Message 1’s will be extended until 11:59pm for Arapahoe and Douglas County as the threat of heavy rainfall continues. Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 11:00pm for ALL other areas of the District. The late evening round of showers/thunderstorms slowed over the Denver metro this evening which has resulted in the extension of Message 1’s for southeastern portions of the District. Storms producing heavy rainfall have moved through Denver with some areas receiving up to 0.91” of rainfall in under 1 hour in western Arapahoe County. This line of storms has entered both Douglas and Arapahoe Counties and will impact the area over the next hour or so. Storms will likely bring 0.30-0.80” of rainfall for portions of Dougals and Arapahoe Counties. A chance for off and on showers will persist through the overnight with any shower activity coming to an end between 2-3am. Skies will gradually clear through the rest of the overnight as lows decrease into the low to mid 60s. Very little overall chance for tomorrow with another chance for storms by midday, with similar NW to SE storm motions. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.10-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30-0.80” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 0.80-1.40” in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1100 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) to 0.8" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) to 0.8" (0%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) to 0.8" (0%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.8" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) to 0.8" (0%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) to 0.8" (0%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) to 0.8" (0%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 2 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 906 PM Sun August 27, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 11:00 PM AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES Message 1’s will be extended until 11:00pm as the threat of heavy rainfall continues. Another round of showers/isolated thunderstorms will move through the District from the NW to SE over the next couple of hours bringing some additional rainfall across most of the District. These storms are moving between 10-20mph which is limiting point rainfall amounts. However, with dew points in the upper 50’s to low 60’s, a stalled shower, or moderate to strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce a quick 0.4-0.6” in 10-30 minutes. Typical showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce between 0.05-0.25” total rainfall, with a few pockets that could produce isolated higher amounts. A chance for off and on showers will persist through the overnight with any shower activity coming to an end between 2-3am. Skies will gradually clear through the rest of the overnight as lows decrease into the low to mid 60s. Very little overall chance for tomorrow with another chance for storms by midday, with similar NW to SE storm motions. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 0.60-1.20” in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SUN 0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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