Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 921 AM Fri May 31, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Chances for showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
A stratus deck has developed behind a cold front sweeping across the
District this morning. Cooler temperatures and morning cloud cover
will limit thunderstorm development this morning and during the early
afternoon hours. However, upper-level conditions are favorable, and
atmospheric moisture across the region remains elevated in the wake of
last night's significant hailstorm. Afternoon highs will reach the mid
70s, dew points in the mid 40s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values
around 0.7”.
There is still some uncertainty about rainfall as cloud cover may
persist across the District through the late morning and possibly into
the afternoon. If the status dissipates by late morning, chances for
isolated showers and thunderstorms will improve throughout the day,
becoming scattered by the late afternoon. Storm motions will be from
west to east around 15-20 mph. Storms will begin clearing by the early
evening, with precipitation concluding by the mid to late evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
0.05”-0.30” total in 15-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: There is a slight chance for training storms,
which may produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall up to 0.55” of
rainfall in up to 10-15 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: On Saturday, mostly sunny morning skies will allow
afternoon temperatures to climb into the 80s. Chances for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms improve during the afternoon and
evening with a low chance for severe storms. On Sunday, high pressure
ridging will begin building over the four corners region. Skies will
be sunny with dry conditions and afternoon temperatures climbing into
the upper 80s to low 90s. Hot and dry weather continues Monday with
sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%)
LOW
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%)
LOW
Boulder
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%)
LOW
Broomfield
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%)
LOW
Denver
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
300 PM TO 900 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.55" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.55" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.55" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
5 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1254 AM Fri May 31, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 2:00 AM as the threat of
heavy rainfall has ended.
Message 1's will be allowed to expire for portions of the District
at 2:00 AM as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. Strong to
severe storms exploded over portions of the District bringing isolated
heavy rainfall, large damaging hail, strong winds, and frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning. Storms have since moved eastward onto the
plains and out of the District. The remainder of the overnight will be
mild with temperatures cooling into the mid to upper 40s for the
plains with low to mid 40s along the foothills. Tomorrow will be
active once again in the afternoon with an abundance of available
moisture at the surface from tonight’s storms, combined with
adequate heating tomorrow will likely result in a LOW chance for
Message 1’s to be issued.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No additional precipitation is
expected through the rest of the overnight and into tomorrow.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Douglas County
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM
Adams County
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM
Denver County
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM
DIA
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 200 AM
Current TO 100 AM
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
5 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1134 PM Thu May 30, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Message 1’s have been extended for central and eastern portions of
the District until 2:00 AM Friday, May 31, 2024
Strong storms continue to impact central and eastern portions of the
District and will slowly meander eastward over the next couple of
hours. By 2am storms will likely weaken as they move out of the
District and should no longer pose a heavy rainfall threat. Storms
over the next couple of hours could pulse up resulting in some
isolated heavy rainfall with some storms still severe across portions
of the District. The largest threat will still be a quick 0.50” in
10-15 minutes with longer lasting heavy rain possible if storms
decrease in speed. Currently storms are moving E/SE at 10-15mph.
Temperatures will decrease overnight with lows dipping into the 40s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms will
produce rainfall of 0.10-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes.
Moderate to strong storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall
of 0.30" to 0.60” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationary, or training of thunderstorms
has the potential to
produce 1.20" total in under 30 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Douglas County
1
Current TO 200 AM FRIDAY
Current TO 100 AM FRIDAY
Adams County
1
Current TO 200 AM FRIDAY
Current TO 100 AM FRIDAY
Denver County
1
Current TO 200 AM FRIDAY
Current TO 100 AM FRIDAY
DIA
1
Current TO 200 AM FRIDAY
Current TO 100 AM FRIDAY
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 200 AM FRIDAY
Current TO 100 AM FRIDAY
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 200 AM FRIDAY
Current TO 100 AM FRIDAY
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 200 AM FRI
0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (5%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 200 AM FRI
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 200 AM FRI
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 200 AM FRI
0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (5%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
5 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1122 PM Thu May 30, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Messages 1’s will expire at midnight for western portions of the
District.
Strong storms have continued for eastern portions of the District,
however, the threat of any heavy rainfall has come to an end for
western areas of the District. These areas include Boulder, Broomfield
and Jefferson Counties. Skies have cleared out over these areas and
will continue to be clear to partly cloudy overnight. Temperatures
will drop into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees by daybreak tomorrow
with a few areas of fog possible in the early morning hours.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
this evening as skies generally remain clear.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
5 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 906 PM Thu May 30, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT
An upper-level disturbance has moved into northern Colorado this
evening creating a line of storms just north of the District. These
storms will move SE between 10-15mph with additional storms possible
off outflow boundaries into the later evening. Storm motions should
help limit point rainfall amounts. However, erratic movement could
produce longer lasting localized heavy rainfall. The largest threat of
heavy rain will be a quick 0.5” in 10-20 minutes. Storms may also
contain large hail up to 1.0” and gusty winds up to 60mph. Currently
storms will favor north and northeastern portions of the District,
with other storms potentially forming across other portions of the
District as the night continues. Storms will start to dissipate by
midnight, with the threat for heavy rainfall likely following suit.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms will
produce rainfall of T-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to
strong storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.25" to
0.50” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationary, or training of thunderstorms
has the potential to produce 0.50” to 1.00" total in under 30
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
5 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1038 AM Thu May 30, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Another chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening.
Very little change to the upper-level dynamics today, combined with
a slight uptick in the available moisture at the surface this morning
will bring another chance for afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms. There will be a slight chance some of these storms will
become severe, mainly for gusty winds and hail up to 1.0” for areas
east of I-25 at this time.
Storms will initiate along the higher terrain in the early afternoon
with the best chance for storms withing the District between 2-8pm
today. Storm motions will be from west to east between 15-20mph which
will help limit point rainfall amounts, however, some erratic storm
motions will be possible due to outflow boundaries. These erratic
storms will have the highest potential for heavy rainfall with the
largest threat today being a quick 0.6” in 10-15min rather than any
long-lasting rainfall.
Another slight chance for a few lingering showers into the later
evening and possibly overnight, although the threat of heavy rainfall
should diminish after sunset. Overnight will be partly cloudy out as
temperatures dip into the low to mid 50s for the plains by daybreak
tomorrow, with upper 40s to around 50 for the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated
thunderstorms will produce 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30”-0.60” total in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or a stationary storm will
have the potential to produce up to 1.20” total in 10-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Slightly drier air overall tomorrow will decrease the
chance for showers and thunderstorm threat, however, an abundance of
left over moisture at the surface from any rainfall today will likely
result in at least a LOW chance for Messages to be issued.
Temperatures tomorrow will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday
will likely dry out completely as high-pressure starts to creep back
into the state. This will bring high temperatures back into the low to
mid 80s under mostly sunny skies.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (20%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (20%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (5%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (5%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (5%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
5 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 927 AM Wed May 29, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Warmer today with a chance for afternoon and evening
showers/thunderstorms
Upper-level winds shift westerly today for the District which will
effectively increase high temperatures today into the low to mid 80s.
Late evening showers and thunderstorms last night has increased
surface moisture today and will have the potential for a more active
afternoon and evening across the I-25 corridor.
Storms will initiate along the higher terrain in the early afternoon
with the best chance for storms withing the District between 2-8pm
today. Storm motions will be from west to east between 10-20mph which
will help limit point rainfall amounts, however, some erratic storm
motions will be possible due to outflow boundaries. These erratic
storms will have the highest potential for heavy rainfall with the
largest threat today being a quick 0.5” in 10-20min rather than any
long-lasting rainfall.
A slight chance for a few lingering showers into the later evening,
although the threat of heavy rainfall should diminish after sunset.
Overnight will likely clear out as temperatures dip into the low to
mid 50s by daybreak tomorrow.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated
thunderstorms will produce T-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate shower/thunderstorms will produce 0.25”-0.50” total in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorms, or a stationary storm
will have the potential to produce up to 1.00” total in 10-30
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: A trough of low-pressure will meander into the Colorado
region tomorrow, likely increasing upper-level support, which in turn
will increase chances for widespread showers with moderate to heavy
rainfall possible at times. Tomorrow’s high temperatures will reach
around 80 degrees in the afternoon with clouds increasing as storms
likely indicate along the higher terrain by midday. Tomorrow will
likely result in a MODERATE chance for Message 1s to be issued.
Slightly drier overall Friday will likely decrease the heavy rainfall
threat, however, an abundance of left over moisture at the surface
from the previous day will likely result in at least a LOW chance for
Messages to be issued.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
5 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 732 PM Tue May 28, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Approaching gust front from the east has increased chances for evening
showers & thunderstorms for portions of the District.
Most storms have missed the District this afternoon and into the
evening. However, a few stronger storms to the east have developed and
produced a gust front which will move into the District over the next
couple of hours. This gust has initiated some explosive storm
development just east of the District currently and could potentially
move into the District this evening. This has resulted in an upgrade
to a LOW Message potential for this evening.
The best chance for storms inside the District will be in the next
hour, lasting through midnight tonight. Showers/thunderstorms should
remain isolated and favor eastern portions of the District. Currently
dew points in the District are in the upper 30s to low 40s, but could
quickly increase behind the gust front, effectively increasing the
potential for moderate to brief heavy rain. Skies will gradually clear
after midnight with no additional showers expected at this time.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
0.05"-0.30" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm
will produce 0.30"-0.60” in 10-30 minutes
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong storm will have the potential to produce
1.20” in up to 30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: On Wednesday, mostly sunny morning skies will allow
afternoon highs to climb
into the 80s once again. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms improve during the afternoon and evening. On Thursday,
another round of scattered afternoon to evening showers and
thunderstorms is possible ahead of a weak cold front overnight. Friday
will be active following the frontal passage, with temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s and chances for isolated to scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.05" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.05" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.05" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.05" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM TUE
0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
5 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 952 AM Tue May 28, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms
This week will be more active as northwesterly upper-level winds
transport Pacific atmospheric moisture into the region. This morning
will be mostly sunny followed by isolated afternoon to evening showers
and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s to low
80s, dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s, and precipitable water
(PWAT) values around 0.5”-0.6”.
Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will gradually improve
throughout the day, becoming scattered by the late afternoon. Storm
motions will be from west to east around 15-20 mph. Storms will begin
clearing after sunset, with precipitation concluding by the mid to
late evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
trace to 0.10” total in 15-30 minutes. A moderate
shower/thunderstorm will produce up to 0.20” in 15-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: There is a slight chance stronger storms east of
the District produce easterly outflows that elevate surface dewpoints,
improving chances for moderate to briefly heavy rainfall. This
scenario, coupled with slower storm motions, support thunderstorms
capable of producing up to 0.50” of rainfall in up to 30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: On Wednesday, mostly sunny morning skies will allow
afternoon highs to climb into the 80s once again. Chances for isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms improve during the afternoon
and evening. On Thursday, another round of scattered afternoon to
evening showers and thunderstorms is possible ahead of a weak cold
front overnight. Friday will be active following the frontal passage,
with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and chances for isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (45%) to 0.1" (35%) to 0.2" (25%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (45%) to 0.1" (35%) to 0.2" (25%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (45%) to 0.1" (35%) to 0.2" (25%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
5 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1019 AM Mon May 27, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
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Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
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Sunny skies and dry conditions across the District today
Uneventful conditions are expected across the Front Range Urban
Corridor as ridge building begins over the Intermountain West.
Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s, dew points
in the low 30s, and precipitable water (PWAT) vales up to 0.50”. Due
to westerly upper-level flow and convergence aloft, sunny skies and
dry conditions will prevail across the District.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Precipitation is not expected
in the District today.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A weak isolated shower develops over complex
terrain and produces up to 0.05 in 15-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Looking ahead, the rest of week will be more active as
northwesterly upper-level winds transport Pacific atmospheric moisture
into the region. Tuesday will be warm and mostly sunny with isolated
afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. At this time, minimal
rainfall amounts are expected.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
5 months, 1 week