May 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 921 AM Fri May 31, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Chances for showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A stratus deck has developed behind a cold front sweeping across the District this morning. Cooler temperatures and morning cloud cover will limit thunderstorm development this morning and during the early afternoon hours. However, upper-level conditions are favorable, and atmospheric moisture across the region remains elevated in the wake of last night's significant hailstorm. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 70s, dew points in the mid 40s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.7”. There is still some uncertainty about rainfall as cloud cover may persist across the District through the late morning and possibly into the afternoon. If the status dissipates by late morning, chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will improve throughout the day, becoming scattered by the late afternoon. Storm motions will be from west to east around 15-20 mph. Storms will begin clearing by the early evening, with precipitation concluding by the mid to late evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce 0.05”-0.30” total in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: There is a slight chance for training storms, which may produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall up to 0.55” of rainfall in up to 10-15 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: On Saturday, mostly sunny morning skies will allow afternoon temperatures to climb into the 80s. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms improve during the afternoon and evening with a low chance for severe storms. On Sunday, high pressure ridging will begin building over the four corners region. Skies will be sunny with dry conditions and afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. Hot and dry weather continues Monday with sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.55" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.55" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.55" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.55" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1254 AM Fri May 31, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 2:00 AM as the threat of heavy rainfall has ended. Message 1's will be allowed to expire for portions of the District at 2:00 AM as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. Strong to severe storms exploded over portions of the District bringing isolated heavy rainfall, large damaging hail, strong winds, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Storms have since moved eastward onto the plains and out of the District. The remainder of the overnight will be mild with temperatures cooling into the mid to upper 40s for the plains with low to mid 40s along the foothills. Tomorrow will be active once again in the afternoon with an abundance of available moisture at the surface from tonight’s storms, combined with adequate heating tomorrow will likely result in a LOW chance for Message 1’s to be issued. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No additional precipitation is expected through the rest of the overnight and into tomorrow. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Douglas County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 100 AM Adams County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 100 AM Denver County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 100 AM DIA 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 100 AM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 100 AM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 100 AM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1134 PM Thu May 30, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Message 1’s have been extended for central and eastern portions of the District until 2:00 AM Friday, May 31, 2024 Strong storms continue to impact central and eastern portions of the District and will slowly meander eastward over the next couple of hours. By 2am storms will likely weaken as they move out of the District and should no longer pose a heavy rainfall threat. Storms over the next couple of hours could pulse up resulting in some isolated heavy rainfall with some storms still severe across portions of the District. The largest threat will still be a quick 0.50” in 10-15 minutes with longer lasting heavy rain possible if storms decrease in speed. Currently storms are moving E/SE at 10-15mph. Temperatures will decrease overnight with lows dipping into the 40s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms will produce rainfall of 0.10-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.30" to 0.60” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationary, or training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce 1.20" total in under 30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Douglas County 1 Current TO 200 AM FRIDAY Current TO 100 AM FRIDAY Adams County 1 Current TO 200 AM FRIDAY Current TO 100 AM FRIDAY Denver County 1 Current TO 200 AM FRIDAY Current TO 100 AM FRIDAY DIA 1 Current TO 200 AM FRIDAY Current TO 100 AM FRIDAY Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 200 AM FRIDAY Current TO 100 AM FRIDAY the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 200 AM FRIDAY Current TO 100 AM FRIDAY County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 200 AM FRI 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1122 PM Thu May 30, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Messages 1’s will expire at midnight for western portions of the District. Strong storms have continued for eastern portions of the District, however, the threat of any heavy rainfall has come to an end for western areas of the District. These areas include Boulder, Broomfield and Jefferson Counties. Skies have cleared out over these areas and will continue to be clear to partly cloudy overnight. Temperatures will drop into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees by daybreak tomorrow with a few areas of fog possible in the early morning hours. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected this evening as skies generally remain clear. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 906 PM Thu May 30, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT An upper-level disturbance has moved into northern Colorado this evening creating a line of storms just north of the District. These storms will move SE between 10-15mph with additional storms possible off outflow boundaries into the later evening. Storm motions should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, erratic movement could produce longer lasting localized heavy rainfall. The largest threat of heavy rain will be a quick 0.5” in 10-20 minutes. Storms may also contain large hail up to 1.0” and gusty winds up to 60mph. Currently storms will favor north and northeastern portions of the District, with other storms potentially forming across other portions of the District as the night continues. Storms will start to dissipate by midnight, with the threat for heavy rainfall likely following suit. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms will produce rainfall of T-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.25" to 0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationary, or training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.50” to 1.00" total in under 30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1038 AM Thu May 30, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Another chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Very little change to the upper-level dynamics today, combined with a slight uptick in the available moisture at the surface this morning will bring another chance for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. There will be a slight chance some of these storms will become severe, mainly for gusty winds and hail up to 1.0” for areas east of I-25 at this time. Storms will initiate along the higher terrain in the early afternoon with the best chance for storms withing the District between 2-8pm today. Storm motions will be from west to east between 15-20mph which will help limit point rainfall amounts, however, some erratic storm motions will be possible due to outflow boundaries. These erratic storms will have the highest potential for heavy rainfall with the largest threat today being a quick 0.6” in 10-15min rather than any long-lasting rainfall. Another slight chance for a few lingering showers into the later evening and possibly overnight, although the threat of heavy rainfall should diminish after sunset. Overnight will be partly cloudy out as temperatures dip into the low to mid 50s for the plains by daybreak tomorrow, with upper 40s to around 50 for the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30”-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or a stationary storm will have the potential to produce up to 1.20” total in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Slightly drier air overall tomorrow will decrease the chance for showers and thunderstorm threat, however, an abundance of left over moisture at the surface from any rainfall today will likely result in at least a LOW chance for Messages to be issued. Temperatures tomorrow will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday will likely dry out completely as high-pressure starts to creep back into the state. This will bring high temperatures back into the low to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 927 AM Wed May 29, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warmer today with a chance for afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms Upper-level winds shift westerly today for the District which will effectively increase high temperatures today into the low to mid 80s. Late evening showers and thunderstorms last night has increased surface moisture today and will have the potential for a more active afternoon and evening across the I-25 corridor. Storms will initiate along the higher terrain in the early afternoon with the best chance for storms withing the District between 2-8pm today. Storm motions will be from west to east between 10-20mph which will help limit point rainfall amounts, however, some erratic storm motions will be possible due to outflow boundaries. These erratic storms will have the highest potential for heavy rainfall with the largest threat today being a quick 0.5” in 10-20min rather than any long-lasting rainfall. A slight chance for a few lingering showers into the later evening, although the threat of heavy rainfall should diminish after sunset. Overnight will likely clear out as temperatures dip into the low to mid 50s by daybreak tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce T-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorms will produce 0.25”-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorms, or a stationary storm will have the potential to produce up to 1.00” total in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A trough of low-pressure will meander into the Colorado region tomorrow, likely increasing upper-level support, which in turn will increase chances for widespread showers with moderate to heavy rainfall possible at times. Tomorrow’s high temperatures will reach around 80 degrees in the afternoon with clouds increasing as storms likely indicate along the higher terrain by midday. Tomorrow will likely result in a MODERATE chance for Message 1s to be issued. Slightly drier overall Friday will likely decrease the heavy rainfall threat, however, an abundance of left over moisture at the surface from the previous day will likely result in at least a LOW chance for Messages to be issued. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 4 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 732 PM Tue May 28, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Approaching gust front from the east has increased chances for evening showers & thunderstorms for portions of the District. Most storms have missed the District this afternoon and into the evening. However, a few stronger storms to the east have developed and produced a gust front which will move into the District over the next couple of hours. This gust has initiated some explosive storm development just east of the District currently and could potentially move into the District this evening. This has resulted in an upgrade to a LOW Message potential for this evening. The best chance for storms inside the District will be in the next hour, lasting through midnight tonight. Showers/thunderstorms should remain isolated and favor eastern portions of the District. Currently dew points in the District are in the upper 30s to low 40s, but could quickly increase behind the gust front, effectively increasing the potential for moderate to brief heavy rain. Skies will gradually clear after midnight with no additional showers expected at this time. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a 0.05"-0.30" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30"-0.60” in 10-30 minutes WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong storm will have the potential to produce 1.20” in up to 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: On Wednesday, mostly sunny morning skies will allow afternoon highs to climb into the 80s once again. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms improve during the afternoon and evening. On Thursday, another round of scattered afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms is possible ahead of a weak cold front overnight. Friday will be active following the frontal passage, with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and chances for isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM TUE 0.05" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 4 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 952 AM Tue May 28, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms This week will be more active as northwesterly upper-level winds transport Pacific atmospheric moisture into the region. This morning will be mostly sunny followed by isolated afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s, dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.5”-0.6”. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will gradually improve throughout the day, becoming scattered by the late afternoon. Storm motions will be from west to east around 15-20 mph. Storms will begin clearing after sunset, with precipitation concluding by the mid to late evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.10” total in 15-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce up to 0.20” in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: There is a slight chance stronger storms east of the District produce easterly outflows that elevate surface dewpoints, improving chances for moderate to briefly heavy rainfall. This scenario, coupled with slower storm motions, support thunderstorms capable of producing up to 0.50” of rainfall in up to 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: On Wednesday, mostly sunny morning skies will allow afternoon highs to climb into the 80s once again. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms improve during the afternoon and evening. On Thursday, another round of scattered afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms is possible ahead of a weak cold front overnight. Friday will be active following the frontal passage, with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and chances for isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (35%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (45%) to 0.1" (35%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (45%) to 0.1" (35%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (45%) to 0.1" (35%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 4 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1019 AM Mon May 27, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Sunny skies and dry conditions across the District today Uneventful conditions are expected across the Front Range Urban Corridor as ridge building begins over the Intermountain West. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s, dew points in the low 30s, and precipitable water (PWAT) vales up to 0.50”. Due to westerly upper-level flow and convergence aloft, sunny skies and dry conditions will prevail across the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Precipitation is not expected in the District today. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A weak isolated shower develops over complex terrain and produces up to 0.05 in 15-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Looking ahead, the rest of week will be more active as northwesterly upper-level winds transport Pacific atmospheric moisture into the region. Tuesday will be warm and mostly sunny with isolated afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. At this time, minimal rainfall amounts are expected. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

7 months

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