June 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 903 AM Sun June 23, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot, sunny, and dry today. High pressure starts to build over the region today leading to mostly sunny skies, along with mild and dry conditions throughout most of the day. High temperatures will reach the mid 90s this afternoon with slightly breezy conditions this afternoon and evening with gusts up to 20mph at times, calming prior to sundown. Mild and dry conditions continue into the evening hours with partly cloudy skies. Overnight temperatures will drop in to the low to mid 60s on the plains with upper 50s to low 60s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Slightly warmer tomorrow as high temperatures reach the mid to upper 90s as high pressure continues to build over the region. A slight chance of a few high based showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. However, minimal, if any precipitation is expected as most rainfall struggles to reach the surface. Very little change in the overall pattern Tuesday results in high temperatures once again in the mid 90s, sunny with dry conditions expected throughout the day. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 hours, 2 minutes

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 939 AM Sat June 22, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Slight changes for isolated afternoon showers Sufficient moisture and a small disturbance will provide forcing for afternoon thunderstorms today. Afternoon temperatures will be in the low 90s, dewpoints in around 40°F, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.70”. Today's storms will be high-based and relatively fast-moving. Widespread convective initiation will begin over the mountains and foothills around lunchtime, but the storms that reach the urban corridor are likely to be isolated and subject to evaporative cooling processes that make measurable precipitation scarce. Storms that do spill off the mountains will do so between 2PM-10PM, clearing out overnight and leaving behind clear skies. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the potential to produce up to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms may be capable of producing 0.25” 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: The following days will all look like today as the ridge settles in, with daily highs climbing into the mid to upper 90s. Mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected through the weekend. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 day, 3 hours

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 650 PM Fri June 21, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10:00pm as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. A few strong storms impacted the District earlier this afternoon and have since moved out and onto the eastern plains. Skies have cleared over the District and should remain fairly clear into the evening. Another wave of showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will be possible later this evening, between 9pm-11pm with skies again overnight and into Saturday. Overnight temperatures will drop to around 60 degrees for most of the District with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. High-pressure starts to build tomorrow bringing sunny skies with high temperatures jumping back to around 90 degrees. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.15” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.15”-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: If a stronger storm is able to develop, it will have the potential to produce up to 0.60” in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.15" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.15" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.15" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.15" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.15" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.15" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.15" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.15" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.15" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.15" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 day, 18 hours

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 138 PM Fri June 21, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 8:00 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 8:00pm for the threat of heavy rainfall with a slight chance for severe storms across the District this afternoon and evening. Storms have initiated along the higher terrain and are expected to move into the District over the next hour. Similar to yesterday storms will move from WSW to ENE between 10-15mph, with erratic storm movement likely along outflow boundaries. These outflow storms will likely have the highest potential for heavy rainfall today as they anchor in place. Storms may also contain large hail up to 1.0” and gusty winds up to 60mph. Dew points are also still elevated, in the mid to upper 50s and will likely help fuel moderate to heavy rainfall leading to some localized flooding. A couple of rounds of storms will be possibly today, likely decreasing in strength as the evening progresses with off and on showers possible through the overnight. Overnight temperatures will drop to around 60 degrees on the plains with low to mid 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce a 0.10-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.50-0.80" total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationary thunderstorms, or training of thunderstorm cells could have the potential to produce up to 1.60” total in 30-60 minutes or less. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 730 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 day, 23 hours

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1001 AM Fri June 21, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Showers and Thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening An upper-level disturbance over the Great Basin will be responsible for another round of thunderstorms today. Morning cloud cover will support slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s, with a few areas breaking 90°F. Atmospheric moisture remains elevated with steering winds aloft from the southwest. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 50s with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.85”. Convection initiation is expected during the early afternoon, with chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing into the evening. Storms will generally move east-northeast between 25-30 mph. Thunderstorm activity is expected to dissipate by mid-evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the potential to produce up to 0.75” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms may be capable of producing 1.50” to 2.00” in 60 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure ridging begins building across the four-corners region overnight, supporting hot and mostly dry conditions through the weekend and into early next week. On Saturday, afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s under sunny skies. Sunday will be hot, sunny, and dry with highs in the low to mid 90s. Monday will be dry and exceptionally hot as temperatures soar into the upper 90s. Some areas may reach or exceed 100°F. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 days, 3 hours

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 900 PM Thu June 20, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O'Brien ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10:00pm as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. Any additional rainfall that may occur overnight will remain weak and uneventful. Storm motions continue to be southwest to northeast at 15-20 mph limiting point rainfall amounts. Atmospheric conditions will remain capped through the overnight hours, supporting little to no additional chances for precipitation. Overnight lows will drop to the low 60s to upper 50s for the plains and mid to low 50s for the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Heavy rainfall is not expected for the remainder of the evening and during the overnight hours. WORST CASE SCENARIO: In the event of an isolated shower or thunderstorm develops, 0.10”-0.30” total is possible in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 days, 16 hours

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 721 PM Thu June 20, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O'Brien ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID FOR THE DISTRICT Message 1's will continue to be valid until 10:00pm. Several rounds of storms have already moved through the District, but the threat of heavy rainfall remains in place through the evening. Storms have already affected Jefferson County to Downtown Denver and Northeast Adams County between 3:00-6:30pm and have left the District. Even with cooler temperatures, a slight chance of heavy rain remains in place for the District, as another round of storms will be possible this evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce a 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.75-1.25" total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.50-2.00” total in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 days, 17 hours

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 244 PM Thu June 20, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O'Brien ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10:00 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 10:00pm for the threat for heavy rainfall with the potential for severe storms across the District this afternoon and evening. The best chance for any shower/thunderstorm activity withing the District will be between 3pm-9pm with a few lingering showers possible through 2am. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be throughout the entire message period. Storm motions will be southwest to northeast between 15-20 mph. Outflow boundaries will likely produce erratic storm movement and clustering thunderstorms which will increase chances for heavy rainfall. Due to updated current conditions, values will be increased from the current message 1. Severe storms will also contain isolated heavy rainfall with the largest threat being stationary heavy rainfall creating a quick 0.50-1.00" in 10-15 minutes. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce a 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.75-1.25" total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.50-2.00” total in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 days, 22 hours

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 926 AM Thu June 20, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warmer today with a good chance for afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Southwesterly flow aloft, combined with clear skies this morning will heat the District well into the 80s if not around 90 degrees this afternoon. A disturbance will move into the region this afternoon, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms across the I-25 corridor today, with multiple rounds possible into the evening hours with a few lingering showers possible overnight. Initial storm development will occur around midday today along the higher terrain, moving onto the foothills between 1-3pm with the best chance of thunderstorm activity in the District between 3-10pm with lingering showers through 2am at this time. The first round of showers and thunderstorms will have the biggest threat for moderate to heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible under stronger storm development. Storm motions will generally be WSW to ENE between 10-15mph, however, stronger storms will likely produce outflow boundaries resulting in some erratic storm movement. The largest threat today will likely be a quick 0.5” in 10-20min rather than any long-lasting rain. A few lingering showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two through the late evening with storms weakening overnight. Off and on weak showers will be possible overnight as temperatures drop into the low 60s along the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce 0.05-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25”-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.50” in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place tomorrow as high temperatures reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Another chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms with at least a LOW chance for Message 1s to be issued. Conditions start to dry out Saturday as high temperatures reach well into the 90s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 days, 3 hours

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1008 AM Wed June 19, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Cooler today with slight chances for afternoon and evening activity Southeasterly surface flow throughout the day today will be responsible for the delivery of significant tropical moisture into the Colorado region, setting up the active weather pattern for the next few days along the Front Range urban corridor. After the passage of yesterday’s cold front, temperatures remain cool today, peaking in the low 70s. Dewpoints will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.80”. There are a few limiting factors with storm development today that will restrict thunderstorm intensity: a lack of upper-level forcing, and cooler surface temps inhibiting convective initiation. If morning cloud cover remains throughout the afternoon, storm distribution and intensity will remain modest at best. If cloud cover dissipates, the area will receive enough heat for scattered convection capable of producing moderate to briefly heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains by midafternoon, drifting over District just before the evening commute. Storm motions will be from southwest to northeast around 20 mph. Outflow boundary-driven initiation is likely throughout the evening and into the night, with isolated overnight showers possible. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the potential to produce a trace to 0.50” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms may be capable of producing up to 1.25” in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Storm uncertainty disappears tomorrow, as more Gulf moisture is transported into the region as the east coast heat wave intensifies. The outer edge of this heat wave will encourage temperatures well into the upper 80s and low 90s. A passing shortwave aloft will be responsible for thunderstorm development during the late afternoon, with severe threats possible: gusty winds up to 60+ mph, heavy localized rainfall, and one inch hail. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 days, 2 hours

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