June 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1210 PM Sun June 30, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGES 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10:00 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 10:00pm this evening. Storms have started to initiate to the west already today and will likely continue into the afternoon with a couple of rounds of showers/thunderstorms possible for the District today. Elevated dew points, currently in the upper 50s to nearly 60 will result in efficient rainfall producing storms this afternoon and evening with a good chance for moderate to heavy rainfall for some locations leading to localized flooding. This initial round of storms will meander into the District over the next hour or so, with additional showers and thunderstorms likely forming along outflow boundaries into the afternoon. Storm motions will generally be west to east around 10mph, however, storms formed along outflow boundaries will have the largest potential for heavy rainfall as they tend to anchor in place for extended periods. Storms today may also contain gusty winds up to 60mph and hail up to 1.0” resulting in a LOW chance for severe weather, likely favoring eastern portions of the District. There will be an additional round of showers and thunderstorms later this evening, similar to yesterday between 7-10pm. Due to excess moisture in place, and good upper-level support, there will be a continued chance for moderate to heavy rainfall into the late evening hours. A few off and on showers will be possible overnight, although the threat of heavy rainfall should diminish after 10pm. Overnight will be cloudy as low temperatures drop into the low 60s on the plains. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/thunderstorms today will produce 0.10-0.50" total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce up to 0.50-1.00” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stationary thunderstorms, or training of thunderstorm cells have the potential to produce up to 2.00” total in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 906 AM Sun June 30, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warmer today with another chance for afternoon and evening showers/isolated thunderstorms Once again, very little change to the overall pattern will bring similar conditions as yesterday across the District. Due to late evening precipitation yesterday, dew points currently in the upper 50s to around 60 and will result in an increased chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall today. Temperatures will reach the low 90s this afternoon with partly cloudy skies. There will be a chance for a couple of rounds of storms today, the first this afternoon, likely between 2-5pm and another late round between 7pm-10pm. A few lingering showers will be possible during the overnight, although the largest threat for moderate to heavy rainfall will be during the initial round and possibly into the later evening. A very slight chance storms become severe today, mainly for areas east of the District, with gusty winds up to 60mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter. Initial storm development will occur by midday along the higher elevations and move into the District during the early afternoon. Storm motions will generally be between 10-20mph which should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, stronger storms could produce outflow boundaries, likely resulting in some erratic storm movement leading to a better chance of isolated moderate to heavy rainfall. The largest threat today will most likely be a quick 0.50-1.00” in 10-30 minutes, rather than any long-lasting rainfall. Storms will lose intensity into the evening hours with isolated showers possible between 7pm-10pm, although a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. A few lingering showers overnight as temperatures decrease into the low to mid 60s on the plains with upper 50s to around 60 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.10-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.50-1.00” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 2.00” total in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will start to dry out at the surface with more typical dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s in the afternoon. A chance for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible, although with decreased dew points, high-based storms will be possible with minimal rainfall expected at this time. Tuesday will be similar with another chance for high-based afternoon and evening showers/isolated thunderstorms with minimal precipitation as most struggle to reach the surface during peak daytime heating. This will likely result in gusty sprinkles rather than any meaningful rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (35%) to 1" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (35%) to 1" (15%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (15%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (15%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (35%) to 1" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 826 PM Sat June 29, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. A few strong thunderstorms impacted the Denver Metro earlier this afternoon and have since moved eastward and out of the District. Some lingering showers persist for portions of the District at this time and will likely remain into the evening hours. There will be a slight chance for off and on showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm or two later this evening. The best chance for additional showers will be between now-midnight with skies partially clearing through the overnight. Overnight temperatures will drop into the low 60s for the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. Partly cloudy sky conditions are expected overnight and through daybreak tomorrow. Tomorrow will bring another chance for moderate to heavy rainfall with a few rounds of storms possible in the afternoon and into the evening with the potential for a few showers to linger into the late evening hours. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.20" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.20-0.40" total in 10- 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: If a stationary, strong thunderstorm is produced it will have the potential to have between 0.40- 0.80" total in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 626 PM Sat June 29, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGES 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE Until 9:00 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 9:00pm this evening. A round of storms have moved into the District bringing isolated moderate to heavy rainfall with 0.20”-0.25” in 5-10min out of some cells. These storms will continue to impact the District over the next few hours, with a few lingering showers possible through midnight. Storms will generally move from west to east between 10-20mph, however, gust front have caused a few storms to become stationary, and these storms will provide the largest threat for moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Storms may also contain gusty winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. The largest threat will be a quick 0.50” in 10-30 minutes rather than any long lasting rain. Storms should weaken in intensity behind this first round with off and on showers possible until midnight. Overnight will be partly cloudy with low temperatures dropping into the low 60s on the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/thunderstorms today will produce a trace to 0.30" total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce up to 0.30-0.60” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stationary thunderstorms, or training of thunderstorm cells have the potential to produce up to 1.20” total in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 922 AM Sat June 29, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Cooler today behind a cold front with another chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. A cooling trend is in store for the District as a cold front pushed through overnight resulting in high temperatures only reaching the low 80s rather than into the 90s this afternoon. These cooler temperatures could either help or hurt our cause today as storms could very well stay suppressed bringing a better chance for typical showers and thunderstorms rather than any strong or severe storm potential. The best chance for impactful storms today will be between 3-8pm with a few lingering showers possible until 10/11pm. Storms today will move from the W/SW to the E/NE between 10-15mph with some erratic storm movement possible along outflow boundaries. A slightly better chance of storms with impactful rainfall along the foothills and Palmer Divide this afternoon and early evening as storms anchor along the higher terrain before moving onto the plains. The largest threat for moderate to brief heavy rainfall will be a quick 0.50” in 10-30 minutes rather than any longer lasting rainfall. Storm today may also contain some hail and gusty wind gusts up to 40mph. Skies will gradually clear overnight with temperatures dropping into the low 60 for the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 1.00” in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The peak of monsoonal moisture transport into Colorado is expected to be tomorrow, with warmer temperatures reaching back into the low 90s and atmospheric moisture levels hovering around 175% of normal. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm activity, some potentially severe, is expected in multiple rounds throughout the afternoon and evening Sunday, and storms are expected to be some of the most rain-loaded of the season so far. With a solid chunk of moisture falling Sunday but a similar atmospheric setup, Monday will bring similar temperatures in the low 90s and a decrease in thunderstorm activity. Tuesday cools off by a few degrees due to the passing of a trough to the north, which initiates another round of afternoon thunderstorms with its passing. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 300 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 300 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 300 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Broomfield 300 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Denver 300 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 300 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 300 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 929 AM Fri June 28, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Another hot day today with a chance for afternoon and evening showers/isolated thunderstorms A minimal change to the overall pattern will bring similar conditions as yesterday across the District. Once again, a few sprinkles to light rain for areas north of the District this morning have cleared out at this time. Temperatures will reach the low 90s this afternoon with partly cloudy skies. There will be a chance for a couple of rounds of storms today, the first this afternoon, likely between 1-5pm and another late round sometime between 7pm-midnight. A few lingering showers will be possible during the overnight, although the largest threat for moderate to heavy rainfall will be during the initial round and possibly into the later evening. A slight chance storms become severe today, mainly for areas east/northeast of the District, with gusty winds up to 60mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter. Initial storm development will occur by midday along the higher elevations and move into the District during the early afternoon. Storm motions will generally be between 10-15mph which should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, stronger storms could produce outflow boundaries, likely resulting in some erratic storm movement leading to a better chance of isolated moderate to heavy rainfall. The largest threat today will most likely be a quick 0.50-0.60” in 10-30 minutes, rather than any long-lasting rainfall. Storms will lose intensity into the evening hours with more widespread showers possible between 7pm-midnight, although a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. A few lingering showers overnight as temperatures decrease into the low 60s on the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.20” total in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will cool off into the 80s behind a cold front, with a continued chance for showers in the afternoon and evening. An overall decrease in moisture will result in mostly high-based shower activity with a few isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and early evening. Conditions start to dry out Sunday with temperatures jumping back into the 90s. A slight chance for a few high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms, favoring the higher terrain at this time, rather than any meaningful rainfall within the District. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 4 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 937 AM Thu June 27, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Cool and cloudy this morning with a good chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A few sprinkles to light rain for portions of the District this morning will clear out as the morning progresses. Temperatures today will reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees this afternoon. There will be a couple of rounds of storms today, the first this afternoon, likely between 1-4pm and another late round sometime between 7-10pm. A few lingering showers will be possible overnight, although the largest threat for moderate to heavy rainfall will be during the initial round and possibly into the later evening. A slight chance storms become severe today, mainly for areas east of the District, with gusty winds up to 60mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter. Initial storm development will occur by midday along the higher elevations and move into the District during the early afternoon. Storm motions will be from west to east between 10-20mph which should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, stronger storms will produce outflow boundaries, likely creating erratic storm movement leading to a better chance of isolated moderate to heavy rainfall. The largest threat today will most likely be a quick 0.50-0.75” in 10-30 minutes, rather than any long-lasting rainfall. Storms will lose intensity into the evening hours with more widespread showers possible between 7-10pm, although an embedded thunderstorm or two cannot be completely ruled out. A few lingering showers overnight as temperatures decrease into the low to mid 60s on the plains. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.50” total in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Very little overall change to the pattern tomorrow will lead to similar conditions as there will be another chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Another slight chance storms will become severe, with the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall continuing. Saturday will cool off into the 80s with a continued chance for showers in the afternoon and evening. A decrease in moisture will result in mostly high-based shower activity with a few isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and early evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.25" (35%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.25" (35%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.25" (35%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

5 months, 4 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 749 PM Wed June 26, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. A few strong thunderstorms impacted the Denver Metro earlier this afternoon and have since moved out of the District. Some lingering showers persist for areas surrounding the District at this time and will likely remain north and east of the District into the evening hours. Any remaining showers will continue to move eastward and away from the District. There will be a slight chance for another round of showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm or two later this evening, favoring eastern portions of the District at this time. The best chance for additional showers will be between 9pm-11pm with skies partially clearing through the overnight. Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid 60s for the plains with upper 50s to low 60s along the foothills. Partly cloudy sky conditions are expected overnight and through daybreak tomorrow. Tomorrow will bring another chance for moderate to heavy rainfall with a few rounds of storms possible in the afternoon and early evening with the potential for a few showers to linger into the late evening hours. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.20" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.20-0.40" total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary, strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.40-0.80" total in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 325 PM Wed June 26, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9:00 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 9:00pm for the threat of heavy rainfall with a slight chance for severe storms across the District this afternoon and evening. Storms have initiated along the higher terrain and are expected to move into the District over the next hour. Storm motions are SW to NE between 15-20 mph which could help with point rainfall amounts with erratic storm movement likely along outflow boundaries leading to a better chance for longer lasting moderate to heavy rainfall. Storms may also contain large hail up to 1.0” and gusty winds up to 60mph. Dew points are also still elevated, in the upper 40s to low 50s and will likely help fuel moderate to heavy rainfall leading to some localized flooding. A couple of rounds of storms will be possibly today, likely decreasing in strength as the evening progresses with off and on showers possible through the overnight. Overnight temperatures will drop to the mid to upper 60s on the plains with upper 50s to low 60s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/thunderstorms today will produce a trace to 0.25" total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce up to 0.25-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stationary thunderstorms, or training of thunderstorm cells have the potential to produce up to 1.50” in under 30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM 400 PM TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM 400 PM TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM 400 PM TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM 400 PM TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM 400 PM TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM 400 PM TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM 400 PM TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM 400 PM TO 800 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM 400 PM TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM 400 PM TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM 400 PM TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM 400 PM TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 948 AM Wed June 26, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot, with scattered afternoon to evening thunderstorms. A more active pattern emerges today as elevated moisture and favorable upper-level winds support chances for scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs climbing into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will be in the low 50s with precipitable water (PWAT) values between 0.80”-1.00”. More meaningful rainfall is expected with storms today, along with the potential for severe storms to produce gusty outflows exceeding 58 mph and/or hail greater than 1 inch in diameter. Thunderstorm clusters are also possible as outflow boundaries repeatedly initiate convection. Storm motions will be from west to east around 15-20 mph. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms today have the potential to produce up to 0.50” in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms may produce up to 0.75” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorm clusters or complexes may be capable of producing 1.00” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Thursday will be similar, with highs in the low to mid 90s and scattered afternoon to evening thunderstorms with the potential to produce meaningful rainfall and severe weather. The heat wave will begin to recede southward on Friday, promoting slightly cooler temperatures across the area broadly. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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