July 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 929 AM Thu July 4, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Sunny, with slight chances for an isolated shower this afternoon and evening. A drying pattern emerges today as upper-level ridging builds across the Great Basin. Afternoon temperatures will be cooler following last night’s cold front; Highs will reach the low to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 30s with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.50”. These conditions will support a mostly dry day, with a stray isolated high-based shower possible later this afternoon and evening. Any precipitation that does manage to reach the ground will be minimal. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the potential to produce up to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm may be capable of producing 0.20” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Friday will also be cooler, with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s. Warming continues Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s followed by slight chances for isolated afternoon to evening storms. Looking ahead, the next disturbance and its associated cold front will work its way across the state Sunday, supporting highs around 80°F and chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Monday will be similar, with highs in the 80s and another round of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 hour, 4 minutes

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 219 PM Wed July 3, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Improved chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A significant dry line has gradually established throughout the morning and early afternoon across the southern portions of the District (and extends northeast into Nebraska). This dry line is responsible for a few currently active super cells in Nebraska and Northeast Colorado, with convective initiation moving south along the line. Precipitable water (PWAT) values remain relatively modest across the District, 0.45” to 0.60”, on forecast soundings. However, dew points east of the dry line continue to surge into the upper 50s. If storms initiate along this boundary, they will have the potential to produce heavy rain across portions of Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, and Douglas Counties. Storm motions will be from west to east around 20 mph. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the potential to produce up to 0.50”-1.00” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorm clusters or complexes may be capable of producing 1.50” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Dry conditions emerge Thursday as upper-level ridging builds across the Great Basin. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s under clear and sunny skies. Friday will be similar with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 800 PM WED 0.05" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) MOD Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM WED 0.05" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) MOD Boulder Current TO 800 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 800 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 800 PM WED 0.05" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) MOD Douglas Current TO 800 PM WED 0.05" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) MOD Jefferson Current TO 800 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 800 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 800 PM WED 0.05" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1" (10%) MOD Jefferson Current TO 800 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

20 hours, 14 minutes

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 954 AM Wed July 3, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot with isolated afternoon to evening storms. Mostly sunny morning skies will permit afternoon temperatures to climb into the 90s today ahead of an approaching disturbance. This afternoon, an upper-level trough and accompanying cold front will sweep across the High Plains. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 30s with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.50”. These conditions will support chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, capable of producing light rainfall amounts. Storm motions will be from west to east around 20 mph. More favorable conditions for severe weather will be present just east of the District today. These storms are currently expected to remain east at this time. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the potential to produce up to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorm clusters or complexes may be capable of producing 0.50” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Dry conditions emerge Thursday as upper-level ridging builds across the Great Basin. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s under clear and sunny skies. Friday will be similar with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 day

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 954 AM Tue July 2, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening Cooler conditions are expected today following yesterday’s cold front. Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 80s followed by slight chances of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. Dewpoints will be in the low 40s with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.70”. Storm motions will be from west to east, around 20-30 mph. Quick storm motions today will help limit point rainfall amounts, therefore any precipitation is expected to be relatively light. However, there is still a chance that clustering thunderstorms produce more meaningful rainfall in the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms today have the potential to produce up to 0.25” in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms may produce up to 0.50” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorm clusters or complexes may be capable of producing 1.00” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Upper-level winds will be westerly tomorrow, supporting mostly sunny skies with afternoon temperatures climbing into the 90s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening with the passage of another cold front. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 933 AM Mon July 1, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Cool and cloudy to start the day with another chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Southwesterly upper-level flow aloft continues to dominate the region today as a ridge of high-pressure churns of the southern US. This will keep similar conditions in place over the District with another chance for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Once again, most activity will be hit or miss across the I-25 corridor with some areas likely ending up dry. Elevated dew points at the surface currently, in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees will keep chances for moderate to heavy rainfall out of any storms that do develop. A very slight chance of storms become severe with gusts up to 60mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be between 11am-9pm with a few lingering showers possible overnight. Storm motions will be from the W/SW to E/NE between 10-20mph which will likely help limit point rainfall amounts, although stronger storms could produce outflow boundaries. These outflow boundaries have the potential to produce erratic storm motions leading to a better chance of longer lasting moderate to heavy rainfall. The largest threat will be a quick 0.50” in 10-30 minutes, however, with these elevated dew points, stationary storms could produce 0.50-1.25” in under 30 minutes today. Storm intensities will decrease after sunset with typical off and on showers possible through the overnight. Overnight temperatures will dip back into the low 60s for the Metro area with upper 50s along the foothill regions. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.25” total in under 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will start to dry out at the surface with more typical dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s in the afternoon. A slight chance for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible, although with decreased dew points, high-based storms will be possible with minimal rainfall expected at this time. Wednesday will be similar with another chance for high-based afternoon and evening showers/isolated thunderstorms with minimal precipitation as most struggle to reach the surface during peak daytime heating. This will likely result in gusty sprinkles rather than any meaningful rainfall during the daytime hours with a slightly better chance for impactful rainfall during the late evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 1100 AM TO 1159 PM Trace (65%) to 0.25" (35%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 1100 AM TO 1159 PM Trace (65%) to 0.25" (35%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Boulder 1100 AM TO 1159 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Broomfield 1100 AM TO 1159 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Denver 1100 AM TO 1159 PM Trace (65%) to 0.25" (35%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 1100 AM TO 1159 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Jefferson 1100 AM TO 1159 PM Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1100 AM TO 1159 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Douglas 1100 AM TO 1159 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Jefferson 1100 AM TO 1159 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 days, 1 hour

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 901 PM Sun June 30, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10:00 PM as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. Several strong thunderstorms have affected areas south of the District, creating an environment over the District that inhibits any strong thunderstorms from forming. Some lingering showers persist for portions of the District at this time and will likely leave in the hour or two. There will be a slight chance for off and on showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm or two later this evening. The best chance for additional showers will be possible through the overnight hours with on and off showers continuing into the morning. Overnight temperatures will drop into the low 60s for the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. Tomorrow will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning hours, with precipitation chances ending by the early to mid afternoon. Rainfall looks to remain light throughout tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.10" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.10-0.25" total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: If a stationary, strong thunderstorm is produced it will have the potential to have between 0.25-0.50" total in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 600 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 600 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 600 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 600 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 600 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 600 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 600 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 600 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 600 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 600 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 days, 13 hours

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