Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 1005 AM Sun July 2, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS This morning will be sunny followed by afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s. Precipitable water (PWAT) values will range from 0.65”-0.75”. Daytime heating and elevated dew points in the upper 40s to low 50s will create an unstable environment favoring isolated to scattered thunderstorms by the midafternoon. This combination will result in storms with the potential for locally moderate to heavy rainfall this afternoon through evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.25” to 0.75” in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall of 0.75” to 1.25” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchored or training thunderstorms have the potential to produce 1.25” to 1.75” in 45 to 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The warming trend continues tomorrow with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Monday will be hot and dry as temperatures climb into the upper 80s to low 90s across the Front Range Urban Corridor. On Tuesday, afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 80s once again followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms will persist into the evening and overnight hours as a cold front works its way across the High Plains. Showers will continue through Wednesday with cooler temperatures in the 70s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]