Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 832 AM Sat August 12, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS West-southwesterly flow aloft has developed broadly across Colorado as an upper-level disturbance traverses the Northern Plains. This morning will be partly cloudy followed by high temperatures in the mid to upper 80 with dew points in the upper 40s. Isolated to Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already developed across the mountains and will move east onto the Plains by late morning. Storm activity is expected to move east by the early evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will be weak, producing rainfall of TR-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Stronger storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.25” to 0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training thunderstorms have the potential to produce 0.50” to 1.00” in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow, an upper-level disturbance and its associated cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers and storms across the Front Range Urban Corridor. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Looking ahead, Monday morning will be mostly sunny followed by highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers. A drying pattern will begin on Tuesday as upper-level ridging expands into the Intermountain West. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1100 AM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 1100 AM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1100 AM TO 600 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]