Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 855 AM Wed May 4, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOL TODAY WITH OFF/ON RAIN SHOWERS AM, BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PM WITH OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE - Another late night round of showers impacted the District last night with a few scattered rain showers continuing this morning. Temperatures today will remain cooler with highs expected to stay in the 40's this afternoon. These cool temperatures will limit any thunderstorm activity, however, with good upper-level support this afternoon a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. - Best chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will be between noon and 8pm today, with a continued chance for rain showers late this evening, through the overnight with some lingering rain showers possible through Thursday morning. Storm motion today will be from the NNW to SSE between 5-10mph, with some training of rain showers possible this afternoon and evening especially along the foothills. - Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 30's resulting in some snow at higher elevations along the foothills and Palmer Divide through the overnight and into Thursday. Scattered off and on rain showers likely for lower elevations through the morning Thursday, however any precipitation should be fairly light at this time. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall of 0.4-0.8" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Thursday will start of cool with a few scattered morning rain showers before skies gradually clear throughout the day as high temperatures jump back into the 60's. Even warmer Friday as high-pressure returns for the weekend leading to dry conditions. Similar Saturday with highs around 80°F along with a slight chance for a few high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening however, no threat for heavy rain at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 900 AM WED Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 900 AM WED Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Boulder Current TO 900 AM WED Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 900 AM WED Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Denver Current TO 900 AM WED Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 AM WED Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 AM WED Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 900 AM WED Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 AM WED Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 AM WED Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]