Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 410 PM Fri August 5, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 900pm this evening. - Storms have started to initiate along an outflow boundary that moved in from the west. These storms are from DIA south through Aurora and towards Chatfield reservoir. These storms will likely stay stationary along the gust front and/or move slowly NNE around 5mph. This erratic and slow movement has increased the threat for moderate to brief heavy rain. Briefly anchored or slower moving storms may create runoff or localized flooding. - Storms continue to produce along the Continental Divide and have the potential to move into the the District through the rest of the evening. The storms could trigger additional outflow boundaries into this evening which could also produce additional rain showers/thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce TR-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms anchor for an extended period of time or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 1.8" in 45-75 min. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]