Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 900 AM Sun September 8, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Another warm, sunny and mostly dry today Very little shift in the upper-level flow aloft today will keep northwesterly flow aloft over the region today as high-pressure continues to churn over the desert southwest. Mild and dry conditions are expected throughout most of the day today under mostly sunny skies. Another very slight chance this afternoon for a few high-based showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. Any storm activity will likely remain anchored to the foothills, mixing out as they move eastward and onto the plains. Most, if not all precipitation will struggle to reach the surface this afternoon, likely resulting in gusty sprinkles rather than any meaningful rainfall within the District. The best chance for storm activity will be from 3-7pm with skies clearing by sundown. Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with low to mid 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce between a trace and 0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong shower/isolated thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.10”-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A minimal change in the overall dynamics once again will result in another mild and dry day tomorrow as high temperatures reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Mild and dry conditions will continue throughout the day Tuesday as high temperatures remain in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. A weak disturbance will move into the region Wednesday, bringing a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms with minimal chances for any heavy rainfall at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 700 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]