Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 211 PM Tue July 26, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 8:00pm this evening. - Abundant low-level moisture with dew points in the upper 50's to low 60's, combined with a weak disturbance from the W/NW has resulted in a chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall this afternoon and early evening. Currently storms have formed along the higher terrain to the W and NW and will move into the District over the next hour or so with a couple of rounds of storms possible into the evening. - Storm motions will be from the W/NW to E/SE around 10mph, with some erratic storm movement likely off outflow boundaries as storms strengthen onto the plains with severe storms possible for areas east of I-25. After 8pm the stronger storms are expected to have moved east of the District, however a slight chance will remain for a late evening/overnight round of scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" of rainfall. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm or briefly anchored thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5" of heavy rainfall in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]