Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 1002 AM Thu August 8, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Cool with Persistent Light Rainfall. The next big weather system will slowly migrate across the Northern Plains today and tomorrow, transporting a broad envelope of Pacific mid-level moisture into Colorado. Coupled with favorable upper-level support, several days of persistent rain and cooler temperatures are expected. A stratus deck has developed across the District and Front Range more broadly, facilitating light showers this morning. Afternoon temperatures may not make it out of the 60s, dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 50s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.00”. Coupled with favorable upper-level divergence, these conditions will support persistent and mostly stratified light to briefly moderate rainfall today and tonight. Due to higher moisture content, minimal storm motions, a LOW chance for Messages will be possible today and this evening. If any thunderstorms are able to develop today, the chances for heavy rainfall will increase significantly throughout the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace-0.30" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower will produce rainfall rates of 0.30”-0.50” total in 10- 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A thunderstorm develops will have the potential of producing up to 1.00” in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be similar as this slow-moving system meanders across the Plains. Highs will remain cooler in the mid 70s with continued light rainfall during the morning. Better conditions for thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supporting higher chances for more meaningful rainfall during the afternoon and evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Boulder Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Denver Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]