Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 906 AM Sun August 27, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS As the remnants of a tropical system continue to shift east, showers and thunderstorms along the Front Range Urban Corridor are expected this afternoon and evening. Scattered storm activity is likely across the Plains today with afternoon temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s, and dew points in the low 50s. Storms are expected to move south-southeast around 20-25 mph. Quick storm motions will help limit point rainfall amounts. Thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening, then move east overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will be weak, producing rainfall of TR-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. Stronger storms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.25” to 0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training thunderstorms have the potential to produce 0.50” to 0.75” total in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Another wave of afternoon storms is possible tomorrow but may be limited by cooler temperatures in the mid 70s. We will continue to monitor these conditions as they develop. Looking ahead, upper-level winds will shift Tuesday, transporting much dryer and warmer conditions into the state. The remainder of the week is expected to be dry and hot, with afternoon temperatures climbing into the 90s under sunny skies. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 1100 PM Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]