Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 841 AM Fri September 30, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - A trough of low-pressure will begin to move through the region today leading to a good chance for widespread rain showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with a very slight chance for lingering rain showers through the overnight. High temperatures today will reach the mid to upper 70's on the plains with upper 60's to low 70's along the foothills. - Shower activity currently on the western slope will slowly progress eastward and into the District this afternoon. Sprinkles to light rain will be possible by midday today with shower activity picking up this afternoon and into the early evening. Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" of rainfall, with isolated higher amounts possible if stronger storms are able to develop. Storm motions will be from the W/SW to E/NE between 10-15mph which will also limit point rainfall amounts. Best chance for shower activity will decrease after sunset with a slight chance for a few overnight rain showers. - Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40's to low 50's on the plains with low to mid 40's along the foothills. Any rain shower activity through the overnight expected between a TR-0.1". STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong rain shower/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells have the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This pattern remains through the weekend with off and on rain shower/isolated thunderstorm activity both Saturday and Sunday. Today is the final day for weather coverage from Skyview Weather. Thank you for another great season! Any questions or comments should be directed to Bruce Rindahl at 303-455-6277 or Bruce Rindahl brindahl(a)mhfd.org. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]