Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 138 PM Tue August 16, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID - Message 1's will continue valid until 6:00pm this evening. - The area of moderate to heavy rainfall has diminished over the District with lingering light rain showers currently ongoing. The atmosphere is more stable behind these showers but any daytime heating will result in additional showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. - Rain showers will be capable of moderate to brief heavy rain with any thunderstorm activity very capable of producing heavy rainfall. With the cooler temperatures currently in place (60's to around 70 over the plains) the threat for thunderstorm activity is low. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce 0.3-0.8" rainfall rates in 10-30 minutes. Weak thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Temperatures warm further than expected with the potential for moderate to strong thunderstorms to produce heavy rainfall of 0.8-2.0" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM DIA 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]