Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 1137 PM Thu June 29, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1159PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 11:59 pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms continue to impact portions of the District behind a gust front from the north. Storm motions have increased to 15-25mph from the W/SW to E/NE which will limit point rainfall amounts for any additional showers/isolated thunderstorms through the overnight. A chance for off and on showers will be possible through daybreak tomorrow, however these showers will likely be hit or miss with many areas ending up dry through tomorrow morning. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 50’s on the plains with upper 40’s to around 50 along the foothills. Upper-level flow aloft shift more westerly tomorrow with breezy northerly winds with gusts up to 25mph in the afternoon. Another good chance for storms tomorrow afternoon, although the intensity of these storms will hinge on whether there is sufficient daytime heating. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers or a weak thunderstorm will produce a trace to 0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm could produce 0.25-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 0.50-1.25” total, in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 AM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]