Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 934 PM Mon June 10, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 11:59 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 11:59pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has returned. Gusts fronts from stronger storm development has initiated storms around the Boulder/NW Jeffco area this evening. These storms are very pulse like and have produced brief heavy rainfall just outside of the District between 0.40-0.50” in 10-15 minutes. This has resulted in the reissuance of Message 1s across the District as additional storms have started to fire along norther portions of the District. Storms that develop will contain moderate to brief heavy rainfall at times, with the largest threat being a quick 0.5” in 10-15 minutes, rather than any long-lasting rainfall. Storms motions have been minimal as most storms have been forming along outflow boundaries. General storm motions will continue to be SE between 10-15mph, with erratic storm movement likley to continue. By midnight skies should gradually clear as skies stabilize through the overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 50s with some patchy fog possible in the early morning hours. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.75” total in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]