Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 333 PM Tue June 13, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN WEAKER SHOWERS ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY Cloudy and cool conditons helped limit storm strength across the District today. A few lingering showers persist and will continue over the next few hours. However, the threat of heavy rainfall has lowered into the afternoon and evening. A chance will remain for additional rainfall into the evening, with the best chance from now through 8pm. A few lingering showers may persist into the later evening although the threat of heavy rain should be minimal at best after sunset. Current temperatures are in the mid to upper 50’s and should only increase a few degrees into the evening. If the sun can poke through enough, temperatures could increase a bit more, resulting in a better chance for additional showers/isolated thunderstorms into the evening. This will keep a LOW chance for Message 1’s through 8pm. Overnight, clouds should decrease with clearing skies into tomorrow morning. Another chance for afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon with likely a LOW threat for Message 1’s due to saturated soils and elevated moisture in place. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of moderate showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.0” total in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A more typical late spring weather pattern through the rest of the week with chances for afternoon rain showers/thunderstorms throughout the week. Due to persistent rainfall this season, the threat for LOW IMPACT FLOODING will be elevated this week as it wont take exceptionally strong storms to be able to produce localized flooding at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]