Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 929 AM Thu July 4, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Sunny, with slight chances for an isolated shower this afternoon and evening. A drying pattern emerges today as upper-level ridging builds across the Great Basin. Afternoon temperatures will be cooler following last night’s cold front; Highs will reach the low to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 30s with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.50”. These conditions will support a mostly dry day, with a stray isolated high-based shower possible later this afternoon and evening. Any precipitation that does manage to reach the ground will be minimal. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the potential to produce up to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm may be capable of producing 0.20” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Friday will also be cooler, with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s. Warming continues Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s followed by slight chances for isolated afternoon to evening storms. Looking ahead, the next disturbance and its associated cold front will work its way across the state Sunday, supporting highs around 80°F and chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Monday will be similar, with highs in the 80s and another round of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]