Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 933 PM Sun August 14, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 11:59 PM FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been extended to 11:59pm as the threat for heavy rainfall remains for the District. - A few very close calls through the afternoon and evening for heavy rainfall around the District. Since, storms have continued eastward were they strengthened, eventually core dumping in far eastern Adams and Arapahoe Counties. This resulted in a gust from from the east to interact with a few lingering showers in Douglas County bringing an extended chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall. - Currently storms are impacting northern portions of Douglas County and will likely pulse up and down, possibly triggering additional storms into other portions of the District into the late evening. Biggest threat will be a quick 0.5" in 10 minutes, however a stalled out, stronger storm has the potential to produce more rainfall. After midnight storms should lose their intensity with scattered rain showers possible through 2am before skies gradually clear through daybreak tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving or briefly anchored strong thunderstorm may produce rainfall amounts of up to 2.0" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]