Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 836 AM Sun July 3, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMER TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - The somewhat active weather pattern holds today with another chance for hit and miss afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. Slightly warmer already with temperatures already in the upper 60's to low 70's with highs today flirting with 90°F in the afternoon. A bit less moisture at the surface this morning will continue throughout the day with surface dew points expected to bottom out around 40°F this afternoon and early evening. This should sufficiently decrease the chance for heavy rainfall today with generally light to brief pockets of moderate rainfall likely under storms that do develop. - Initial rain showers/isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop along the higher terrain between 12-2pm today with rain showers/isolated thunderstorms possible in the District between 2-9pm. Storm motions will generally be WSW to ENE, between 10-15mph with peak storm chances between 3-7pm. A round or two of storms will be possible today, with the first round bringing the best chance for moderate rainfall at this time. Additional rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm will continue until 9pm before skies clear through the overnight with dry conditions expected after 10pm and into Monday morning. - Overnight lows excepted to drop into the upper 50's to low 60's with mild and dry conditions expected into daybreak Monday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce TR-0.1" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger storm formed along an outflow boundary or a slower moving thunderstorm will have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall rates of 0.4-0.8" in 30-45 minutes and up to 1.2" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This pattern holds heading into the 4th of July with another chance for widely scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and early evening with skies likely clearing into the evening for any evening celebrations. Not much change in the overall pattern through next week with storms chances Tuesday through Friday as high temperatures remain in the upper 80's to low 90's throughout the week as well. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]