Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 812 AM Mon July 12, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- CONTINUED HAZY WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS - Smoke from multiple wildfires to the NW of Colorado will continue to impact visibility today over the District with hazy skies. Temperatures will warm into the lower 90's over the plains with 70's and 80's in the Front Range foothills. - Most areas will squeeze out another dry day today with any afternoon thunderstorm activity expected to remain over the higher mountains to the W of the District but a stray storm or two cannot be completely ruled out, mainly over the far W and S areas. If a storm were to develop, best chances would be between 3-8pm with minimal rainfall and gusty winds being the most likely outcome. - After 8 or 9pm dry completely dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak high-based thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. A very isolated moderate storm may result in up to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures back off a degree or two on Tuesday, mainly due to increased cloud cover earlier in the day. There will be an increase in mid and upper level moisture as well and will result in additional thunderstorm activity. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected with most storms producing light to briefly moderate rain and gusty winds. Thunderstorm chances look to peak on Wednesday as a cold front moves through with some storms possibly producing brief heavy rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]