Flash Flood Prediction Program

Time: 925 AM Thu July 18, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms A high-pressure system builds over the Four-Corners region today, supporting warmer and dryer conditions across the state. Sunny morning skies will permit afternoon temperatures to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.75”. These conditions will support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Convection initiation will begin around 1pm across complex terrain, with storms moving southeast into the District between 15-20 mph. Thunderstorm activity is expected to dissipate by the late evening, with skies gradually clearing overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the potential to produce up to 0.50” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving, strong thunderstorm may be capable of producing up to 1.00” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot afternoon temperatures continue Friday, with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s across the Plains with chances for showers and thunderstorms through the evening. A cold front is expected to sweep across the region early Saturday morning, supporting a more active pattern this weekend and early next week. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains       Adams 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft       Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (85%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789    F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]